Happy deadline day, Devils fans! Today’s NHL trade deadline is set to commence at 3:00 pm ET. Last night, the Devils made Tyler Toffoli a healthy scratch in what was described as “asset management.” Toffoli is now listed as the “No. 1 target,” for opposing teams.
Additionally, in that same report, Frank Seravalli indicated that the team is also listening on Colin Miller and Brendan Smith. Lastly, he added that the team may be in a market for a short-term goaltending fix. Independent of that report, would someone like a Kaapo Kahkonen or Alex Nedeljkovic be in play?
Regardless of all that speculation and reporting, below is the original post of an article we relaxed earlier in the week analyzing some Devils who may be on the move by the conclusion of today. Coincidentally enough, the three main highlighted were the three mentioned in Seravalli’s report from earlier today.
Original Post (March 3 at 10:56 am ET) –
Note, below statistics are of the end of the day March 2.
What hasn’t gone wrong for the New Jersey Devils in 2023-24? The team has fallen embarrassingly short of their preseason Stanley Cup aspirations and find themselves well outside the playoff picture as the league’s trade deadline rapidly approaches. To make matters worse, the team fired now former head coach Lindy Ruff on Monday. A rash of injuries, extremely poor goaltending play, and regression on defense has pushed the expectation-filled Devils toward their 10th season without the playoffs in the last 13 years.
With all that being said, many forecasted the Devils would be buyers come the 3:00 pm ET trade deadline on March 8. However, with the Devils sitting eight points out of a playoff spot, it looks exceedingly likely they’ll profile more as a seller than buyer. Who are some of the current members of the team that may be on the move?
Tyler Toffoli
Interestingly enough, in general manager Tom Fitzgerald‘s press conference after the firing of former head coach Lindy Ruff on Tuesday, Fitzgerald mentioned he is not shopping Tyler Toffoli. However, he added that negotiations are being held up on term and inferred that if the right package comes he would be willing to move him. Which, despite just acquiring the 31-year-old winger before the season, makes a lot of sense.
Toffoli has had an extremely strong year in his first with the Devils. Specifically, he leads the team with 26 goals and owns offensive on-ice impacts that rank in the league’s 87th percentile. He has been terrific at both even strength and on the power play. Toffoli has also excelled in transition, but has seen his in-zone defense plummet. After owning defensive impacts that graded in the league’s 87th percentile from 2020-23, that percentile ranking has dropped to the eighth this year.
An extension of Toffoli makes a lot of sense. His play does not show signs of regression due to age, and, on a deal for less than four years, would be a strong piece of the forward core going forward. However, it appears that term is what the hold up is in negotiations. Couple that with the fact the Devils are quickly falling out of a playoff race, a trade not only makes the most sense, but would be the most ideal scenario.
So, what can the team get? A first-round pick should certainly be attainable. Just last year, forward Tyler Bertuzzi was acquired by Boston for both first-and-fourth-round picks. Similarly to Toffoli, Bertuzzi was a rental. Add in the fact that Toffoli is performing much better than Bertuzzi was last season, a first-round pick-plus should be the expectation for the Devils’ winger. Not to mention, Anthony Mantha netted second-and-fourth-round picks just on Tuesday.
Bertuzzi and Mantha comparisons aside, given the nearly 30-goal pace, the extremely strong on-ice impacts, and the playoff pedigree, the veteran is an extremely enticing trade piece that should net the Devils a haul if they so chose to go that route. All this is despite the fact Toffoli is merely a rental. Not to mention, what a steal it would be to net a first-round pick-plus for a player that was acquired by trading a former fifth-round pick in Yegor Sharangovich.
Colin Miller
The Devils traded for the veteran defenseman in the offseason for only a 2025 fifth-round pick. After battling an early injury and a few healthy scratches, Colin Miller has settled in nicely for the Devils.
Among Devils defenseman to play more than 20 games this season, he ranks second in Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and third in scoring chances-for percentage (SCF%). His overall on-ice impacts from a goals above replacement (GAR) standpoint are also strong. He ranks above the 50th percentile in both offensive and defensive on-ice impact metrics.
Even though the numbers are still strong, they are off his career marks, so a change of scenery may benefit the 31-year-old. Not to mentioned, he has 40 playoff games under his belt. Given all this, other teams may herald the rental’s services come the deadline. The Devils surely should be able to net a package better than the fifth-round pick they had to move for him.
For comparison sake, on March 3 of last season, Dmitry Kulikov netted a third-round pick and forward Brock McGinn. Similarly, last February, the Maple Leafs gave up a third-round pick for Luke Schenn. Can general manager Tom Fitzgerald parlay a fifth-round pick into a third? Or at least a fourth-round pick for his veteran defenseman who is slated to be an unrestricted free agent at year’s end?
Brendan Smith
The 35-year-old signed a two-year deal with the Devils in free agency back in 2022. The rugged defensive defenseman is exactly that at this point in his career. Brendan Smith‘s even strength defensive impacts are about average, but his penalty killing metrics are off the charts this season. Specifically, over the last three seasons, Smith’s defensive on-ice impacts (includes both even strength and on the penalty kill) rank in the league’s 64th percentile.
Smith, a 13-year veteran with 673 NHL games under his belt, is seasoned in the postseason as well. Specifically, he has played in 59 playoff games, add that in with his penalty killing prowess and a playoff team may desire his services.
The trade package for Smith is hard to project. Getting back the fifth-round pick that New Jersey traded in the previously mentioned Colin Miller trade may be realistic. A defensive defenseman with postseason experience and a knack for giving great time on the penalty kill is a valuable asset at this time of year. If the Devils so chose to, there is likely a market for the pending unrestricted free agent.
Honorable Mentions
A duo of late signees, Tomáš Nosek and Chris Tierney, have both gotten an extended run with the Devils. After being hurt for most of the season, Nosek has skated in 18 games for New Jersey. Granted, any interest in him would likely be due to his playoff experience with both Vegas and Boston over the years as he is scoreless with the Devils this year. Meanwhile, Tierney has had deceptively good on-ice defensive impacts across 32 games with New Jersey. If either of these individuals net a return, expect a sixth-or-seventh-round pick. However, that may be wishful thinking.
A couple of intriguing names are Curtis Lazar and Kevin Bahl. Each have team control and each have silently performed well this season. Lazar has been one of the more underrated players in the NHL, owning terrifically strong offensive and defensive on-ice impacts while serving an integral role on the penalty kill. Could general manager Tom Fitzgerald try to sell high on the veteran after only acquiring him for a fourth-round pick?
As for Bahl, he is a pending restricted free agent. After an extremely tough start to the year, Bahl has arguably molded into the team’s best defenseman from solely a defensive standpoint. He leads the Devils in both even strength expected and actual GAR. Due a new contract, will the Devils be more eager to move the young defenseman? Probably not.
Final Thoughts
All things considered, it may be a quiet deadline come Friday. If general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s wishes about re-signing Toffoli are true, and no offers meet his high asking price, he may very well remain in New Jersey. There also have been no rumors about either Miller or Smith, let alone any other Devil.
Regardless, stay tuned to our social media pages as we get closer to the trade deadline. We will have coverage on every move.