Analyzing The Devils’ Terrific Trade For Tyler Toffoli

Tyler Toffoli. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

General manager Tom Fitzgerald did it again. Tuesday evening the New Jersey Devils announced they acquired veteran winger Tyler Toffoli in exchange for forward Yegor Sharangovich and the team’s 2023 third-round pick. Sharangovich is a restricted free agent and the third-round pick was the pick obtained in the Damon Severson sign-and-trade with Columbus.

Toffoli has one more year left on his current deal which carries a cap hit of $4,250,000. He will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season. However, in his post-trade press conference he noted an extension is, “on a wish list,” but has not been discussed just yet. He pointed out his hope was to extend with the team that traded for him after he requested a deal be made.

After the deal, the Devils have a projected $19,007,500 in cap space remaining, per CapFriendly. The team has five key restricted free agents remaining. Still plenty to work with.

Toffoli will wear number 73, the first to do so in team history.

Tyler Toffoli. (Photo by the LA Kings)

Tyler Toffoli

Toffoli, 31 years old, is coming off a career season. He posted 34 goals, 39 assists, and 73 points while playing in all 82 games for the Flames. It was the second time in Toffoli’s career he broke the 30-goal mark, surpassing his prior career-high of 31 in the 2015-16 season. The point total (73) shattered his previous career high of 58 as well (2015-16).

Before his career year, he posted points seasons of 44, 44, and 49, respectively. These three seasons together work out to about a .706 point-per-game pace – 58 points per 82-game season. As for his goal output, he was scoring them at a 30 per 82-game pace before his career season. So, despite the career year this year, he was still putting up solid numbers on much weaker teams prior to his explosion with Calgary this season.

Two other notable aspects of Toffoli’s career is he loves to shoot and has a ton of playoff experience. Toffoli had 268 shots last season, which ranked 23rd in the league. Throughout his career he has broken the 200-shot plateau six times.

As for his playoff experience, he has played in 88 postseason games and has a Stanley Cup title under his belt. He owns a career playoff Corsi-for percentage (CF%) of 56.1 which is comfortably above the 50.00 average.

The above player card via Evolving Hockey encompasses on-ice impacts over the past three seasons.

The Analytics

Toffoli’s analytics paint an even prettier picture than his traditional statistics. He has had great on-ice impacts on both ends of the ice.

Over the past three seasons, Toffoli’s impacts rank in the league’s 87th percentile both offensively and defensively. This includes a rough 2021-22 season where his overall impacts ranked in the league’s 20th percentile as he played a majority of the season with a struggling Canadians team before being dealt to Calgary and playing much better.

As the chart above also points out, Toffoli has had strong impacts on both the power play and penalty kill. Not only can he get it done at five on five, but he has the capabilities to play very well on special teams, both the power play (10 power play goals last season) and the penalty kill.

Yegor Sharangovich. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

What Did The Devils Give Up?

The Devils gave up two assets, one of which was a player without a contract for next season and the other was in the Devils’ possession due to a player that was also not under contract for next year. That being Yegor Sharangovich and the draft pick the team received for orchestrating a sign-and-trade of unrestricted free agent Damon Severson to Columbus.

Sharangovich is due a new contract as a restricted free agent and is coming off a disappointing season. After totaling 20-plus goals and almost breaking the 50-point plateau, expectations were high for the 25-year-old entering last season. However, he saw his shooting percentage drop from 14.3 percent to 9.9 percent and his point output decrease from 46 to 30 while playing only one less game.

The above player card via Evolving Hockey encompasses on-ice impacts over the past three seasons.

At his best, Sharangovich is a goal scorer who has the versatility to play either center or wing. He also did good work on the penalty kill totaling five shorthanded goals since entering the league. However, his five-on-five defensive impacts were always troublesome and he was not able to drive offense on his own. When he was not scoring, his value was extremely limited, thus what we saw this past season.

Bottom line, his 0.4 goals above replacement (20th of 23 on the team) posted last season is easily replaceable, especially when he was due a new contract and a pay raise.

The Devils also added the aforementioned 2023 third-round pick, which actually originally belonged to Calgary. The pick came over in the Severson trade, as New Jersey was able to get the selection for a player that was all but gone. They then took that “free” pick and added it with another asset that did not have a contract for next season [Sharangovich] and landed a top-six winger.

Tom Fitzgerald addressing the media. Photo Credit to Jess Starr of Jess Starr Photography
Tom Fitzgerald. (Photo by Jess Starr of Jess Starr Photography)

Final Thoughts

General manager Tom Fitzgerald is once again showing how fit he is to lead the Devils back to contention. Toffoli automatically comes in and fills a top-six role that the Devils needed to replace with the likely departure of Tomáš Tatar, who did a lot of good for New Jersey last season.

He also brings playoff experience and apparently more veteran leadership, as he said this after being dealt to the Devils Tuesday in his press conference, “If something needs to be said I’m not afraid to say it.”

Further, Toffoli, when he was surrounded by a load of talent on the Flames last year saw his output explode. He will be playing with an even better supporting cast in New Jersey.

The cherry on top? To orchestrate the deal Fitzgerald gave up the “free pick” he got for trading an unrestricted free agent’s rights and another who was limited in providing value and was without a contract for next season. Just more terrific work by the general manager of the New Jersey Devils.

Statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

1 comment on “Analyzing The Devils’ Terrific Trade For Tyler Toffoli”

  1. Bob Reply

    Let’s see what you have to say after the season is completed. Tofolli won’t exceed 55 points and might score 22-25 goals. He was at his peak last year and anything he signs that is more than 2 years in length will be too much.

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