The New Jersey Devils are falling. And fast.
The team has lost their last five games while getting outscored 20-7. They have lost eight of their last 11. On top of that, dating back to October 24 only one of their three victories have come in regulation. There is no way to sugarcoat it; New Jersey has been struggling dearly for almost a month now.
When trying to analyze what is wrong with the performance of the team the easiest thing to do is scapegoat coaching or management. Sometimes that is the case, however, sometimes it is not. What we are doing below is analyzing what exactly is going on with the New Jersey Devils.
Injuries
Yes, there is no way around it. The Devils have been decimated by injuries all season long, a theme that has followed the team way too much in recent years. Every team goes through it, some teams survive it, and some don’t. Regardless, the cards have really been stacked up against the Devils this season.
Below are some key players and the amount of games they have missed so far this year (29 possible):
- Johnathan Kovacevic: 29 games
- Zack MacEwen: 26 games
- Evgenii Dadonov: 24 games
- Brett Pesce: 20 games
- Jack Hughes: 12 games
- Cody Glass: 11 games
- Connor Brown: 7 games
- Jacob Markström: 6 games
- Dougie Hamilton: 4 game
According to NHL Injury Viz, the Devils rank third in the league in “Cap Hit Of Injured Players.” Making up those Devils who have, or are, missing games is the team’s best forward, best defenseman (through nine games), and No. 1 goaltender.
With that being said, there are ways to survive. The team that ranks No. 1 in the NHL Injury Viz rankings is the Vegas Golden Knights. They are currently second in the Pacific Division. Regardless, injuries should be at the top of the list when pointing out what has gone wrong with New Jersey this season.
Performance Of The Bottom-Six Forward Group
The Devils have been dreadful at five-on-five this year (more on that later), and one of the main factors as to why is how bad the team’s bottom-six has played.
Here are how some of the Devils’ bottom-six players has performed this year according to the Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement (GAR) and expected goals above replacement (xGAR) on-ice metrics:
- Luke Glendening: 2nd percentile
- Stefan Noesen: 6th percentile
- Paul Cotter: 8th percentile
- Connor Brown: 11th percentile
To further hit home how much the above players, and forward Juho Lammikko (who did not qualify for the percentile rankings), have struggled, each player has a Corsi-for percentage below 49.17 and expected goals-for percentage below 46.26. That is five of the Devils’ six bottom-six forwards on almost a nightly basis who have been performing sub-replacement level and are getting caved in on a nightly basis.
On the flip side of that, the forwards who have predominantly made up the team’s top-six have been excellent:
- Jack Hughes: 92nd percentile
- Jesper Bratt: 84th percentile
- Dawson Mercer: 79th percentile
- Timo Meier: 77th percentile
- Arseny Gritsyuk: 72nd percentile
- Ondrej Palat: 65th percentile
- Nico Hischier: 61st percentile
- Cody Glass: 52nd percentile
The top-end talent on the Devils are playing very well. That even includes some more traditionally depth forwards in Palat and Glass. However, the underperformance of the five others, who are playing in the team’s bottom-six on almost a nightly basis, has just been to poor to overcome. You cannot have roughly 42% of your forward group playing like bottom of the barrel NHL-level players on a nightly basis.
Play At Five-on-Five
The Devils have been a disaster at five-on-five this season. It is by far the main reason why the team has struggled so much. The main reason why it was not listed first is the two aspects on this list ahead of it are the explanations as to why this poor even strength play is happening.
To hammer home just how bad the Devils have been at five-on-five this year, below are the Devils’ rankings in key even strength metrics:
- Corsi-For Percentage (CF%): 13th
- Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 25th
- Scoring Chances For Percentage (SCF%): 21st
- High-Danger Corsi-For Percentage (HDCF%): 23rd
- Goals-For Percentage: 32nd
So, what do these metrics say?
Despite the Devils being roughly league average in shot attempt differential (CF%), these attempts they are creasing are not higher quality and the ones they are allowing are. As a result, the team’s overall actual goal differential at five-on-five is dead last (49 scored, 66 allowed). The metrics overall don’t exactly say that the team should be dead last in goal differential, but when you factor in a lackluster shooting percentage (31st) and shoddy goaltending (24th) those already subpar metrics culminate in the worst five-on-five goal differential in the league.
The most concerning aspect of this is even prior to the Jack Hughes injury the numbers were subpar. Despite this, the Devils were getting by due to elite special teams, and, at the time, strong finishing plus some solid goaltending. For context, since the Hughes injury the Devils rank 14th in CF% and 21st in xGF%, a slight improvement on their season numbers.
No team is going to survive posting the above number at five-on-five all season long. The Devils are feeling the ill-effects of these subpar metrics in the form of their five game losing streak and being losers of eight of their last 11. The season may not improve if there five-on-five numbers are unable to. This starts with health as well as better play from their bottom six and two key defensemen we are going to discuss next.
Struggles Of Hughes, Siegenthaler
Two key defensemen for the Devils entering the season have had extremely rough goes of it. Luke Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler each make up an integral part of the Devils’ top-four group and each have performed near the bottom of the league in terms of on-ice impacts.
The Devils rightfully handed defenseman Luke Hughes an eight-year extension in the offseason. Hughes possesses all the skills of an elite defenseman. His skating ability is out of this world, he has terrific puck skills, and has the build to mold into an elite defenseman that the Devils expected when they took him with the fourth-overall pick in 2021.
With that being said, this has not exactly come to fruition yet and Hughes is arguably enduring the worst season of his young career in the first year of his new deal that is paying him $9 million annually over the next seven seasons. It has been bad, to say the least.
According to Evolving Hockey, Hughes ranks in the league’s second percentile in overall on-ice metrics as it relates to GAR and xGAR metrics. His defensive play ranks in the second percentile. Specifically, his xGAR of negative-6.3 ranks 721st among 724 NHL players this season.
As for Siegenthaler, he is on pace to play the most games in a season since 2022-23. However, his performance is closer to that of his disastrous 2023-24 season than the rest of his New Jersey tenure.
Since coming over to the team during the 2020-21 season, Siegenthaler has typically put together elite-level performances, especially defensively, when healthy. Below are the percentile rankings his on-ice metrics were in each year:
- 2021-22: 90th percentile (99th percentile defense)
- 2022-23: 74th percentile (71st percentile defense)
- 2023-24: 1st percentile (10th percentile defense)
- 2024-25: 85th percentile (99th percentile defense)
To further demonstrate how strong he has been from 2021 through 2024, excluding the troublesome 2023-24 season, Siegenthaler’s 39.7 GAR ranks eighth among 412 NHL defensemen. His defensive portion of that GAR ranks second.
Unfortunately, the play that Siegenthaler experienced in his troublesome 2023-24 season is re-emerging this year. His overall on-ice metrics, as it relates to GAR and xGAR metrics, rank in the eighth percentile. Additionally, among Devils defensemen he ranks sixth in CF% and seventh in xGF%.
The Devils had huge plans for both Hughes and Siegenthaler in 2025-26 and each have fell well short of expectations thus far. With that being said, Siegenthaler has been excellent in three of his previous four seasons with the Devils. Meanwhile, Hughes has all the tools to be fantastic. Hopefully each reach their potential by the end of the season. Especially Hughes, who the Devils have made a huge investment in before the season.
Final Thoughts
Are the Devils going to figure it out? The cowardly answer: only time will tell. First thing first is the team needs to get healthy and figure out their play at five-on-five. The progression of the bottom-six as well as Luke Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler would help achieve that. Not to mention, both the Devils and head coach Sheldon Keefe have shown the ability in the past to reach the heights they need to be a successful hockey team.
On the other side of coaching, the individual that makes personnel decisions is of course general manager Tom Fitzgerald. Over the seasons, and since he took over, Fitzgerald has generally done a solid job in signings, drafting, etc. For the first time since taking over, he is likely truly feeling some heat.
Fitzgerald could not have budgeted in for the injuries, he also could not have forecasted in for the steep regression of Siegenthaler and stunted development of Hughes. However, what he could have done is a little bit of a better job addressing his top six in the offseason which would have spread out the lineup more. If you have a grip with Fitzgerald, that should be it.
As a result of the recent struggles a lot has been made of Fitzgerald needing to respond with a trade. In-season trading is a tricky task, especially any that are completed well before the deadline. This is exactly why you do not usually see any major moves made this early. Regardless, Fitzgerald finds himself in a tricky predicament and although his seat should be nowhere as hot as some are wanting it to be immediately, a season that ends with New Jersey outside the playoffs can really start to spark legit conversations come the offseason.