The New Jersey Devils dropped their third-straight game Thursday night against the Edmonton Oilers. After allowing six goals, the team has officially tied the Carolina Hurricanes for the worst team save percentage in the NHL. The duo of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid have combined to post a .878 mark.
Is It Actually The Defense?
Several have proposed that the reasoning behind this huge regression from last season is due to the defense in front of each. However, goals saved above expected, and other pertinent underlying defensive metrics show, despite some defensive regression, the goalies are indeed largely to blame.
Goals saved above expected (GSAx) does a great job at attempting to isolate goaltending play from the defense. Vitek Vanecek has posted a -9.53 GSAx (has allowed roughly 10 more goals than expected based off the play in front of him) and Akira Schmid a -3.01 GSAx (has allowed roughly three more goals than expected based off the play in front of him). These numbers rank No. 77 and No. 66 out of 78 goalies to appear in a game this season, respectively.
Further evidence that the defense has not been the root cause of issues this season are some of the telling advanced metrics. The Devils have actually been a quite good five-on-five team this year, ranking fifth in Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and fifth in expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). However, they have largely been bogged down by the second-worst five-on-five save percentage.
Specific defensive metrics that further demonstrate the Devils more than adequate defense this season are the number of scoring chances and high-danger chances they allow. At all strengths, the Devils are allowing the fifth-fewest scoring chances per game and the 11th-fewest high-danger chances per game. Granted, each figure are regressed from last season, but that is to be expected with the losses of Damon Severson and Ryan Graves and the fact that three of their six defensemen currently are aged 23 or younger.
The bottom line; the defense has been good enough. A potential explanation for why all the hubbub about the group? Breakdowns happen, and luckily for New Jersey, statistically happen much less than some other teams, but chances are when those breakdowns happen they end up in the back of the team’s net (third-worst high-danger save percentage in the league). Thus, that is what people remember more. Regardless, the team needs to address their goaltending problem as soon as possible.
Can Jake Allen Be A Remedy?
In a recent edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun noted that the Devils have internally debated the idea of Jake Allen. He noted that current Devils’ hockey operations member, Martin Brodeur, has familiar with Jake Allen given his time with the St. Louis Blues. Would he be a fix to the Devils’ goaltending woes?
He certainly would help. The 33-year-old Montreal Canadien holds a career .909 save percentage across his 11-year career with two teams. Over the last four seasons, all with the Canadiens, he has posted a .900 save percentage. However, his GSAx, which helps isolate his play from the largely poor defensive play of some bad Montreal teams in front of him over the years, is a 2.68. He posted a -3.33 mark in 2020-21, a 2.98 mark in 2021-22, a -2.00 mark in 2022-23, and a 5.03 mark so far in 2023-24. Large improvements from a three-year stretch to end his Blues’ career where he posted a cumulative mark of -36.39.
Specifically, as mentioned above, this season, he holds a 5.03 GSAx and a save percentage of .904. Both are huge improvements over what the Devils have this season. For comparison sake, the Canadiens allow the third-most scoring chances per game and the sixth-most high-danger chances per game. The grouping he has been playing behind in Montreal is far, far worst than the group in New Jersey.
Not to mention, Allen would not only give the Devils a goaltender for the rest of this season, but he is also under contract for next year at a cap hit of only $3,850,000. It is worth noting, Allen does have a seven-team no-trade list in his deal in 2023-24. That number shrinks to three in 2024-25. So, if he did not want to come to New Jersey, the Devils would have no choice.
What would it take to acquire Allen’s services? That is always a hard aspect to predict. Back in August of 2022, the Golden Knights acquired Adin Hill from San Jose for a fourth-round pick. Meanwhile, the Devils acquired Vanecek from the Capitals for a second-and third-round pick in 2022. A third-round pick might be the soft spot for Allen, who is an aging veteran only under contract for one more season.
Final Thoughts
It is pretty clear, general manager Tom Fitzgerald once again has a major goaltending issue on his hand. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, Vitek Vanecek has gone from posting career numbers in 2022-23, to figures well below his career numbers in 2023-24. Further, Akira Schmid’s development has not exactly been a straight line either.
Jake Allen is not the only option out there, but the first to really been mentioned directly with the Devils. As for other potential options? That has yet to be determined, but the Devils certainly have their work cut out for them if they wish to return to the playoffs this season.
Statistics via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.