As mentioned in our brief New Jersey Devils’ offseason primer last week, the first step in most organizations’ offseasons is to make decisions on their own free agents. The Devils have 23 internal free agents they’ll need to decide on. Of those, nine are unrestricted (UFA). The rest, which we will examine in a different article, are of the restricted or 10.2(c) variety.
If the Devils chose to bring back any of their UFAs, general manager Tom Fitzgerald will have the third-most cap space ($34,282,500) in the NHL. This per CapFriendly.
So, who are the nine UFAs? What is the likelihood they come back? What may the contracts they get look like?
Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs)
Of the nine UFAs the Devils have, five of them played in 76 or more regular season games last season. Additionally, three of them were exclusively in the AHL and one spent essentially the whole season on the long-term injured reserve. The full list is below:
- Tomas Tatar: 82 GP, 20 G, 28 A, 48 PTS, 15:07 ATOI
- Damon Severson: 81 GP, 7 G, 26 A, 33 PTS, 19:57 ATOI
- Erik Haula: 80 GP, 14 G, 27 A, 41 PTS, 16:38 ATOI
- Ryan Graves: 78 GP, 8 G, 18 A, 26 PTS, 19:57 ATOI
- Miles Wood: 76 GP, 13 G, 14 A, 27 PTS, 12:06 ATOI
- Mason Geertsen: 61 GP, 4 G, 4 A, 8 PTS (AHL)
- Brian Pinho: 53 GP, 10 G, 18 A, 28 PTS (AHL)
- Jayce Hawryluk: 7 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS (AHL)
- Jonathan Bernier: did not play, long-term injured reserve (hip)
Tomáš Tatar
It is no secret that Tomáš Tatar struggled mightily in the postseason. His expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) of 48.33 was fifth-lowest among Devils’ forwards. He was only able to muster up a single points across 12 playoff games.
The regular season was a completely different story. Tatar only averaged 15:07 of ice time night, but whenever he was on the ice, great things happened.
The veteran logged 20 goals and 48 points, each the highest of his career since 2019-20. His total on-ice impact ranked in the league’s 88th percentile (84th offensively and 96th defensively). Bottom line, he was terrific in the regular season.
Evolving Hockey is projecting a three-year deal for the 32-year-old at an annual average salary of $3.899 million. As you can see, his regular season impact was worth much more than that.
Retaining Tatar would not be a bad idea at all, especially given his projected cheaper price tag and the fact he gelled with Nico Hischier extremely well. It just all depends on if his long history of postseason struggles and New Jersey’s recent willingness to get younger results in the team going in a different direction.
Expiring Cap Hit: $4.5 million
Damon Severson
Severson, scapegoated and over-criticized by Devils’ fans throughout his lengthy Devils’ tenure, turned in another terrific season in 2022-23. He owned an expected total goals above replacement (xGAR) figure of 18.8. This number ranked eighth among NHL defensemen (326 total).
His career year from an impact standpoint largely coincided with the fact he was mainly deployed against weaker opposition given how deep the Devils’ defensive core was. Though, as the chart below shows, Severson has been strong regardless of the opposition he has faced over the years.
Severson has shown time and time again he is a very strong, top-four defenseman. At only 28 years old the Canadian is likely regarded as one of, if not the top defenseman on the market. For this reason, a large payday is expected. Evolving Hockey projects a six-year deal at $6.171 million annually.
At that price, he’d be worth every penny. Though, unless he takes a “hometown discount,” given the recent drafting of Simon Nemec, and the trade for John Marino last offseason, a return to the Devils looks unlikely.
A guy of Severson’s caliber and projected cost porbably should be playing 20 minutes a night. Going forward, for better or worse, those minutes likely will not be available to Severson. Thus likely spelling the end of his 647-game stellar career with the club.
Expiring Cap Hit: $4.166 million
Erik Haula
What a ride it was for Erik Haula this past season. After being traded for Pavel Zacha, the veteran forward couldn’t buy a goal and fans were writing him off as a complete loss while he continually skated alongside Jack Hughes. Well, finally he experienced the positive regression he was due and ended up having a very nice season in a third-line center role.
The 32-year-old tallied the third-highest point total in his career while posting a tremendous 54.2 percent success rate at the faceoff dot. This helped a lot in his role as a key penalty killer and as the man who often took faceoffs alongside Hughes. His overall impact ended up being fine as well, notably his defensive metrics ranked in the league’s 78th percentile.
After the season, Haula made it well known that he wanted to remain with the red and black. Evolving Hockey is projecting a three-year deal worth a shade over $4 million annually. For what he brings, this does seem a bit rich. However, given how highly he talked about the organization, it seems he would take a “pay cut” to stick around with the organization.
Of anyone on this list, Haula seems the most likely to be back. A deal in the $3-million range would be very valuable to the Devils given his role as a strong third-line, penalty-killing center going forward.
Expiring Cap Hit: $2.375 million
Ryan Graves
As for Graves, reviews have been mixed since he came over from the Colorado Avalanche via trade in July of 2021. In his two years with the team, he posted a total goals above replacement (GAR) 16.4, a very strong figure. When he has been on the ice, despite it not being the prettiest at times, usually positive things are happening. Whether that’s directly his doing or not.
Like Severson, the Devils have a pipeline of NHL-ready defenseman behind Graves. Kevin Bahl emerged at points last season and Luke Hughes looks poised to jump into the top four next season.
The four-year deal worth $4.775 million that the 28-year-old Graves is projected to sign is not at all bad on the surface. Additionally, it’s more likely, given the projected cheaper cost and the fact the left side is a little less jampacked with NHL-level talent than the right side, that Graves will be back than Severson.
With all that being said, it appears very unlikely the Nova Scotia native returns as the team’s younger talent continues to take over. If that’s a good thing or not, only time will tell.
Expiring Cap Hit: $3.116 million
Miles Wood
It was a tumultuous season for the speedy winger, to say the least. After basically missing all of the 2021-22 season recovering from right-hip surgery, Wood looked to be feeling the effects.
He posted one of the lowest point-per-game rates of his career while seeing his ice time shrink. His woeful on-ice impacts backed up his lackluster counting totals as he owned the team’s worst GAR rating of negative-4.7 in the regular season.
The struggles continued over into the playoffs as he was finally made a healthy scratch after seveal costly offensive zone penalty. Despite getting something going after being re-entered into the lineup later in the postseason, Wood posted the worst Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and second-worst xGF% on the team in the postseason.
The 27-year-old has played every single one of his 402 career games in a Devils’ uniform. Given his performance last season, and the pipeline of young players who can fill his expendable fourth-line role, a return seems very unlikely.
For those curious, Evolving Hockey is projecting a four-year deal worth $3.265 million a season. Something the Devils would be wise to avoid, even if the price tag ends up being cheaper.
Expiring Cap Hit: $3.2 million
Jonathan Bernier
Unfortunately, injuries prevented Bernier from having much of an impact over his two years with the Devils. He only played in 10 regular season games, all in 2021-22, posting a .902 save percentage.
The idea at the time was a good one. Bernier was an established, veteran goaltender that always excelled in a backup or “1B” role. However, it just didn’t work out due to injury.
Expiring Cap Hit: $4.125 million
The AHL Crew
Three AHL-level skaters are set to hit the open market. Of the three, per AHL Tracker, Brian Pinho was the most valuable posting a game score per game of 0.47. The forward added 28 points and proved to be a nice veteran presence for a Comets team that needed one.
Jayce Hawryluk was acquired via midseason trade and posted a game score per game that ranked 14th on the team. He only skated in seven games but has proved to be a useful AHL-depth forward in the past.
Lastly, someone Devils’ fans are all too familiar with, Mason Geertsen, only had eight points in 61 games. He played both forward and defense for Utica, doing what he does and compiling a team-leading 136 penalty minutes.
Gauging whether or not UFAs who are predominately AHLers come back is a tough task. Several of the veterans in that league, which all three qualify as, usually move from team to team. Regardless of what happens, losing any of the three wouldn’t be a big hit to a Comets team that has a lot of young talent.
Expiring Cap Hits:
- Brian Pinho: $750k
- Jayce Hawryluk: $750k
- Mason Geertsen: $750k
Final Thoughts
The Devils are set to lose five key contributors via unrestricted free agency. Of the group, Erik Haula seems the most likely to return. Next up, despite being one of the Devils’ stronger players over the past several seasons, the Devils approached last offseason as if Damon Severson was not in the team’s future plans. It also seems like Ryan Graves will be an odd-man out with the defensemen New Jersey has in the pipeline. Though, as mentioned, his return would be less surprising than Severson’s.
On the other hand, bringing back someone who had such a strong regular season on a projected cheap deal in Tomáš Tatar would make sense. As for the rest, it seems like a forgone conclusion the remaining five UFAs, including career Devil Miles Wood, will be finding a new home come July 1.
Regardless of what happens, it’s likely, specifically the defensive core, will look much different next year. The younger Devils, and whoever the team may bring in, will need to step up and help bridge the gap and avoid too large of a fall off next season. That’ll definitely be a main storyline entering next season.
All contract projections and charts are courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Some statistics via for the Natural Stat Trick as well.