One of the pleasant surprises in an otherwise disappointing season is the seemingly emerging Simon Nemec. Nemec had an extremely troublesome 27-game run in 2024-25 after an encouraging debut season in 2023-24. The former second-overall pick in 2022 has also had a strong offensive season thus far in 2025-26, responding after the dire struggles he had in 2024-25.

An important part of the equation for the only 21-year-old defenseman is he is due a new contract at season’s end. Nemec is a restricted free agent and will need to be re-signed after the season. You couple this with a deep dive into the numbers painting a not-exactly encouraging picture, should the New Jersey Devils actually capitalize on the young defenseman’s offensive output and move him for a different asset?

Nemec’s Performances

Nemec spent the entirety of the 2022-23 season in the AHL with the Utica Comets, posting a strong 0.52 point per game scoring rate and topped it off with four points in six playoff games. He also captained the Slovakian World Juniors team and posted five points in five games.

NHL Play Prior To This Season

Nemec finally made his NHL debut in 2023-24, posting 19 points over 60 games. As a 19-year-old the underlying metrics were encouraging as well. His offensive on-ice metrics according to Evolving Hockey ranked in the league’s 70th percentile and his overall on-ice metrics ranked above the league’s 50th percentile. Specifically, his even strength offensive GAR ranked 35th among 218 defenseman to play at least 500 minutes. There were struggles defensively, as many would expect for such a young defenseman, but overall picture was encouraging.

Unfortunately, Nemec took a large step back in 2024-25. He only skated in 27 regular season games with the Devils and posted four points. His expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) of 37.67 ranked last on the team (minimum seven games played). Among 244 defenseman to play at least 250 minutes of five-on-five ice time, his xGF% ranked 243. The defensive struggles carried over from his rookie season and accelerated while the offense was not there to balance it out.

With that being said, Nemec did score an overtime-winning goal for the Devils in their round one series against Carolina. The metrics across his four-game sample in the playoffs were also much better than the regular season (49.17 xGF% against a dominate Hurricanes team), so there was some hope for 2025-26.

2025-26

The hope has held true offensively, anyways, for Nemec thus far this season. Across 43 games the young defenseman has eight goals and 20 points. Prior to an injury in practice that kept him out from December 11 through January 8, Nemec had 18 points in 31 games. He specifically had six goals in the month of November, including a November 12 hat trick against Chicago.

On the flip side of that, Nemec has still be a train wreck defensively. His on-ice defensive impacts, according to Evolving Hockey, rank in the league’s 20th percentile. He has been comfortably below replacement level both at five-on-five and on the penalty kill defensively.

The overall, analytical picture of Nemec in 2025-26 also does not paint an exactly encouraging picture either. His GAR metrics are inflated by a hot couple month stretch of extremely high, and unsustainable, shooting percentage. While on the ice, the Devils are shooting 10.12% at five-on-five, this is the second best on the team trailing only forward Lenni Hämeenaho. This figure was much higher just a couple month ago, but, has regressed steadily, as expected, and has coincided with Nemec having only two points since his return on January 8.

To further exemplify the idea that Nemec’s 2025-26 has not been as strong as many believe and is being masked by unsustainable shooting percentage at points is his more traditional underlying numbers have been poor again this year. Underlying metrics such as expected goals-for ratio and shot attempt ratios help take out unsustainable shooting percentages and poor goaltending being played behind you.

Nemec’s Corsi-for percentage (CF%) is seventh among 10 Devils defenseman to play a game this year. Meanwhile, his xGF% is eighth. The 45.58 xGF he has posted ranks 180th among 227 defensemen to play at least 250 minutes of five-on-five ice time this season. Basically, while on the ice, the Devils’ opponents are controlling the run of play.

If you take it a step further, dating back to the beginning of the 2024 season, Nemec’s xGF% of 43.03 ranks 268th of 283 defensemen to play at least 250 minutes of five-on-five ice time.

Quick Takeaway

In layman’s terms, Nemec strong offensive outburst earlier this season was fueled by unsustainable on-ice shooting percentages which has in return inflated some of his goals above replacement metrics. The defensive metrics are still very troublesome and the more traditional analytics, that take out shooting percentage and other volatile metrics, paint a troubling picture. Through 131 NHL games, Nemec has flashed some elite offensive potential while continuing to struggle dearly defensively.

The Contract Situation

What accelerates the idea of trading Nemec is his contract situation, or lack of one next season. Nemec is in the last year of his entry-level deal and is due a new contract for 2026-27.

Early projections for a new deal for Nemec according to AFP Analytics are listed below:

• Short Term: Two years, $8,618,113.26 ($4,309,066.63 annually)
• Long Term: Seven years, $58,108,960 ($8,301,280 annually)

Moving around the money to fit a Nemec extension, a short-term one, is possible. The cap is rising and there is a strong likelihood that the Devils clear additional cap room via a Dougie Hamilton trade.

There is certainly no way Nemec will be signed to a long-term deal, especially at that figure. His play also has not warranted anywhere close to a deal like that, and unlike Luke Hughes, the raw tools are not as evident as they were with Hughes prior to his massive extension. Not to mention, Hughes played more games and in a much, much tougher role than Nemec has seen throughout his early tenure.

If Nemec returns next season, it would surely be on a bridge deal that would ink him in New Jersey for the next couple seasons prior to becoming a restricted free agent once again.

Why A Trade Makes Sense

Between Nemec not exactly putting it all together yet, especially defensively, and needing a new contract, a trade of the young defenseman should certainly be investigated. Moving Nemec, and potentially capitalizing on some unsustainable shooting percentage at points earlier this season, could net the Devils a strong return.

New Jersey’s issues this season have been offensive. With that being said, taking away Nemec this year and that offense gets worse. However, if the young Slovakian defenseman can be repurposed into a controllable, young top-six forward, the Devils should undoubtedly pull the trigger. This especially given how the Devils have much more in the pipeline on defense than offensively.

In the Devils’ system, they have another top-10 pick in Anton Silayev, albeit he has not exactly progressed as hoped in the KHL. Additionally, Seamus Casey, Ethan Edwards, and Daniil Orlov have all shown signs of positive development. Also, the Devils are likely to be on their way to another top-10 pick which give them another opportunity to add a blue-chip blueliner to the prospect pool.