Training camps are opening up which means that it’s almost hockey season. After a much better than expected performance last season that saw the New Jersey Devils beat their franchise record in points and wins, as well as Jack Hughes claiming the franchise single-season scoring record, it’s safe to say this might be one of the highest-anticipated seasons in franchise history.
Before the puck hits the ice, let’s take a look at how the sportsbook think the boys in red and black will l do this year. We used BetMGM to take a look at the projected outcomes for the team, certain players, individual NHL awards, and point totals for 2023-2024.
Quick Explanation About Odds
If you don’t understand how odds work, let’s over simplify it for you. If you see two sets of odds, for example -200 and +100, the one with the “-“ in front of it is more likely to happen (the favorite). As opposed to the “+” odds, the unlikelier to happen (the underdog). The higher a “-“ number is, the more likely it is.
For example, something with -1000 odds is more likely to happen than something with -100 odds. The opposite is true for “+” numbers. For example, something with +1000 odds is less likely to happen than something with +100 odds.
Further, all odds (-1000, -250, +150, etc.) can be broken down into percentage. For example, odds of -1000 translate to an implied probability of 90.91%. Odds of +350 translate to an implied probability of 22.22%.
Lastly, in terms of if you actually bet using these odds you can simply think of of it like this:
- Odds of +100 (50% implied probability) means you’d need to be $100 to win $100.
- Odds of -150 (60% implied probability) means you’d need to bet $150 to win $100.
- Odds of +150 (40% implied probability) means you’d need to bet $100 to win $150.
Jack Hughes’ Offensive Output
We knew Jack Hughes was good, but last year he showed us just how good he could be. Hughes found another gear to have a breakout season that makes him a top ten NHL player and a definite super star. Hughes broke the franchise single-season point record with 99 points (43 goals and 56 assists). The single-season goal record still belongs to Brian Gionta with 48 pucks that tickled the twine and the Devils are still waiting for the first 100-point player in franchise history.
Hughes has the second-best odds to score at least 40 goals this season at -160 (61.64% implied probability). Kirill Kaprizov, Tage Thompson, and Jason Robertson are all ahead of him and tied at -275 odds. Why stop there? Jack Hughes has the seventh-best odds to score at least 50 goals at +650 and the seventh-best odds to score 60 goals at +3000 (3.23% implied probability).
BetMGM also offers a pretty simple “over/under” bet for Hughes’ goal total this season set at 41.5 goals. That represents a slight regression from last year’s 43, but shows that the oddsmakers pretty certain Hughes hits that 40-goal plateau once again.
Meanwhile, Hughes over/under for point total is 102.5. This means the bookmakers think it’s likely that the Devils will have their first 100-point player, even if he just reaches that threshold.
Note, over/under odds are set usually at around 50% implied probability. Basically, odds are set at the most likely outcome and bettors then bet if they’ll exceed or fall short of that sportsbook’s deemed most likely outcome.
Other Offensive Props
The only other Devils’ players to show up in the “over/ under season-point total” category on BETMGM are Nico Hischier and Tyler Toffoli. The captain has his over/under set at 77.5 points, putting him roughly just under the point per game mark. Hischier had 80 points this past season. Meanwhile, Toffoli has his over/under set at 70.5 points.
Timo Meier showed up in the “over/under goals scored” category at 37.5 goals. Jesper Bratt was a notable exceptions, appearing on neither.
Erik Haula is +275 (26.67% implied probability) to score 20 or more goals this season and Tyler Toffoli is -115 to score 30-or-more goals this season. Meanwhile, Jesper Bratt is +150 and Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer are tied at +250 in the same category.
Joining Hughes on the possible 40-goal-or-more scorers list is Timo Meier at +200, Tyler Toffoli at +800, and Jesper Bratt at +1400 (6.67% implied probability).
Situation In Between The Pipes
In net, Vitek Vanecek’s over/under for wins this season is set at 26.5. That’s the tenth-best projected win total and ties him with Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues, Linus Ullmark of the Buffalo Sabres, Adin Hill of the Vegas Golden Knights, and Ville Husso of the Detroit Red Wings.
The seemingly “gold standard” of NHL goalies, the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, is set at 34.5 wins. Connor Helleybuck, who the Devils have been connected with in trade rumors since the end of last season, has his win total set at 31.5.
That 26.5 wins is a whopping seven wins less than Vanecek had in his career year last season (33). Maybe that number went down because the oddsmakers think Vanecek is due for some regression? Maybe it went down because they see Akira Schmid having a more even split of the workload in a 1A and 1B role? That’s most likely why reigning Vezina winner Linus Ullmark is tied with Vanecek heading into this season.
Individual Hardware
As for individual NHL awards, Jack Hughes is currently seventh in the Hart Trophy odds at +1600, tied with Kirill Kaprisov of the Minnesota Wild. Timo Meier appears further down the list at +15000 odds, while Bratt and Hischier are tied at +25000 (0.40% implied probability).
Hughes is also tied with Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen of the Colorado Avalanche for the fourth-best Rocket Richard trophy odds at +1400. Meier finds himself at +5000 on the Rocket Richard odds.
Meanwhile, Dougie Hamilton has the seventh-best odds at +1600 to take home the Norris Trophy. He is tied with Erik Karlsson and trail odds-on favorite Cale Makar, among others. Rookie Luke Hughes owns odds at +6600.
In net, Vanecek has +15000 odds (0.66% implied probability) to win the Vezina trophy. Lastly, behind the bench head coach Lindy Ruff is second at the Jack Adams odds, behind fellow Metropolitan Division bench boss Rod Brind’Amour, at +800.
Note, BETMGM currently is not offering Calder Trophy odds. However, SportsBettingDime lists two Devils in the top six. Luke Hughes checks in second at +550 and Simon Nemec sixth with +2500 odds. They trail the odds-on favorite Connor Bedard at -140 (58.33% implied probability).
Because It’s The Cup
The Devils have both the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup, at +1000, and to win the Eastern Conference, at -600. The Carolina Hurricanes have better odds to win the cup at +900 and better odds to win the Eastern Conference at +500. The Avalanche are tied in cup odds with Carolina at +900. The Edmonton Oilers are tied with the Devils for cup odds as well.
As for the Metropolitan Division, the Devils have the second-best odds at +240 (29.41% implied probability). Carolina is first at +175.
Final Thoughts
Odds are only that, there is no forgone conclusion with how the 2023-24 Devils’ season will pan out. One thing for sure though, is expectations around the team are as high as ever. This remains true with the bookmakers who think the Devils, along with several of their players, are in for a terrific season.