On Wednesday, Frank Seravalli with Daily Faceoff reported that Vladimir Tarasenko never rescinded the trade request he submitted last offseason. With one year left on his current contract at $7,500,000, the 30-year old may be available this summer. Tarasenko scored 34 goals in a bounce-back campaign last year after two injury-marred seasons. So, should the Devils be interested in the high-scoring winger?
Background
Tarasenko played just 34 games in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 combined due to shoulder issues. Tarasenko had an independent surgeon, Dr. Peter Millett, perform his shoulder surgery after he lost trust in the Blues’ medical staff after procedures in 2018 and 2019. Last offseason, he submitted a trade request with two years left on his $7.5 million contract. St. Louis also exposed Tarasenko in the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. The Kraken ended up selecting defenseman Vince Dunn.
Despite a difficult few years, Tarasenko has a long track record of being one of the best goal scorers of his generation. The 16th overall pick in 2010 has netted 252 goals in 606 regular season games including six 30-goal seasons. The Blues’ alternate captain has also been clutch in the postseason with 41 goals in 90 playoff games. He scored 11 goals and 17 points in 26 games en route to the 2019 Stanley Cup.
The winger’s value has rebounded considerably since his trade request. Tarasenko scored 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games last season. He also potted six goals in 12 postseason games as St. Louis fell to the eventual champions Colorado Avalanche in six games during the second round. With Tarasenko in his walk year and with his value rebuilt, it will be interesting to see if St. Louis opts to move him this summer.
The Statistics
As noted above, Tarasenko is well-known as an elite goal scorer. Last season, he was back to his expected form with 34 goals, but produced points at a career-high pace. Tarasenko put up 82 points in 75 games. He eclipsed the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career with a 1.09 point-per-game clip.
Tarasenko’s shooting percentage was encouraging as well. After a dip to 6.5% in 2020-2021, Tarasenko shot 14.8% last season, the second-highest mark of his career. While that pace will likely drop slightly, it was much more in tune with his career average of 12.9%. Simply put, this is much closer to the player hockey fans have expected to see from number91.
In terms of play driving in five-on-five situations, Tarasenko actually had negative metrics. His Corsi-for percentage (CF%) at five-on-five was just 46.0, a career-low. His relative CF% was -4.5%, meaning the Blues controlled shot attempts at a 4.5% worse rate with Tarasenko on the ice at five-on-five. This was also a career-low for the 10-year veteran.
In all situations, Tarasenko had slightly positive metrics due to powerplay time. His CF% also clocked in at 52.7%. The relative rates of +6.8% (CF%), but these were also career-lows. This is certainly concerning for a player with a significant injury history that just hit age 30.
Regardless, Tarasenko still is a tremendous offensive player and goal scorer. As the above player card depicts, Tarasenko’s offensive on-ice impacts are tremendous. Defensively, another story. However, he would not be brought to New Jersey for his offense.
Why Would the Blues Consider Moving Tarasenko
From the back of his hockey card, it doesn’t make much sense for the Blues to want to move Tarasenko. He had a career year last season and St. Louis is in win-now mode. However, with Tarasenko still wanting out of the Gateway City and his contract set to expire, general manager Doug Armstrong may feel obliged to move Tarasenko and not risk letting him walk in free agency for nothing.
This could especially be true if the Blues don’t think they can re-sign Tarasenko. According to CapFriendly, St. Louis currently has $9,000,000 in cap space. The Blues have only 11 forwards signed at the NHL level. Next offseason, both Tarasenko and 2019 Conn Smythe winner and current captain Ryan O’Reilly are unrestricted free agents. St. Louis may not be able to keep both.
Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas will also be restricted free agents next summer. The pair will likely command significant raises from their identical $2,800,000 cap hits. With that in mind, flipping Tarasenko for cheaper, controllable talent may be in the Blues’ best interests.
Where Would Tarasenko Fit on the Devils
If the Devils do acquire Tarasenko, he would immediately slot into the top-six, likely as the top-line right wing alongside Jack Hughes. With the left-handed Tarasenko playing on his off-wing, he would be a one-timer threat at both even-strength as well as on the powerplay. Of note, he would likely set up at the top of the right circle (like a mirrored Alexander Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos). Adding his lethal shot would add a crucial dimension to a woeful Devils’ power play unit that ranked 28th in the NHL at 15.6% last year.
However, it would remain to be seen if Tarasenko would be able to help the Devils long-term or just as a rental. As noted above, the right winger will be a free agent next summer. If the Devils miss the playoffs for a 10th time in 11 seasons, would Tarasenko want to stay? Even if Tarasenko wanted to return, would general manager Tom Fitzgerald be willing to give the then 31-year old the term and dollar amount he desires on what could be Tarasenko’s last big contract?
The Decision
Given the risk of being able to re-sign Tarasenko, and some of his underlying numbers already beginning to decline, a Devils team still building toward the future is not the perfect fit for the three-time all star. However, the former first round pick would certainly improve the Devils next season and Tom Fitzgerald should consider making a move for the winger. A partnership with Jack Hughes could propel New Jersey back into the postseason in 2022-2023.
Despite this, St. Louis will not be selling low on Tarasenko as they may have last offseason. That value may be too much for New Jersey to part with, especially with other elite talents potentially on the trade block and in free agency as other articles have discussed. Regardless, Tarasenko would add a significant scoring punch to the Devils’ lineup if he were acquired and he is a name to keep an eye on this summer.