Over the past week, it has been reported that Matthew Tkachuk will not sign long-term in Calgary and will be traded before the start of the 2022-2023 season. The 24-year-old Calgary Flames’ winger is coming off a career year where he scored 42 goals and added 62 assists for 104 points. All these totals were career highs. With Tkachuk available and entering his prime, the New Jersey Devils should absolutely be among the teams trying to acquire him.
The Background
Tkachuk has spent his entire career in Calgary after being drafted sixth overall in 2016. However, he is currently a restricted free agent and is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency next summer. With that unrestricted free agency looming, the Flames were looking to extend Tkachuk longterm, but could not do so.
After losing linemate Johnny Gaudreau to Columbus, Tkachuk wants to leave Calgary as well. The Flames are expected to trade him. New Jersey had rumored interested in moving the number two overall pick in the draft for Tkachuk (among others) earlier this summer, but Calgary declined. The Flames hoped Gaudreau would re-sign and that would convince Tkachuk to stay. However, that is not how things played out, and now Tkachuk is the biggest name on the trade block.
Calgary filed for arbitration with Tkachuk this week, but that does not impact the likelihood of a trade. Arbitration prohibits teams from offer-sheeting Tkachuk. The Flames did this to avoid a one-year offer-sheet that, even if matched, would allow Tkachuk to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent next summer without a long-term deal. This allows Calgary to trade Tkachuk this summer, receiving players and/or picks in return, rather than letting him leave for nothing as a free agent.
The Statistics
Matthew Tkachuk had a breakout season in 2021-2022 and is firmly among the NHL’s elite forwards. Obviously, 42 goals and 104 points jump off the page, but Tkachuk is far more than just a skilled forward. Tkachuk measures six-foot-two, 202 pounds and uses his size well. In 2021-2022, he had 93 hits, but this was his first time below 100 hits since 2017-2018.
In terms of play-driving metrics, Tkachuk had a career year there as well. His Corsi-For percentage clocked in at career-best 59.8%. Tkachuk’s relative Corsi-For percentage was 6.3%, meaning Calgary outshot its opponents at a 6.3% better rate with Tkachuk on the ice than off it. His relative rate was also his highest since a 6.4% mark in 2017-2018.
Tkachuk is also an elite two-way player, as his player card from JFresh Hockey indicates. Tkachuk ranks in the 98th percentile defensely, showing he impacts all facets of the game. JFresh’s model isn’t alone in loving Tkachuk. Evolving Hockey projects Tkachuk to have the fourth-highest GAR among skaters next season behind only Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Cale Makar.
Tkachuk would immediately slot into the Devils’ top-six, likely on the top line next to Jack Hughes. His size and skill would be a welcome addition to any team in the league, but especially to a New Jersey. A team looking to add a truly elite winger to the established core. Tkachuk would also seem feature on the top powerplay unit. His presence could boost the NHL’s 28th-best powerplay from a year ago at a paltry 15.6%.
What Might a Return Look Like?
Comparable Trades
Now this is where things get tricky. The Devils are far from the only team interested in Tkachuk and a bidding war could drive the price up. However, that remains to be seen. For now, one comparable that could be used is the Jack Eichel trade from Buffalo to Vegas last season. Both players are elite forwards, but Eichel was still signed for four-and-a-half years at the time of the deal. However, his neck injury and frayed relationship with the Buffalo front office lowered his value. In this case, Tkachuk’s desire to leave Calgary lowers his.
It’s unclear how similar the returns may be, but in return for Eichel, Buffalo received winger Alex Tuch, center Peyton Krebs, Vegas’ 2022 first round pick, and Vegas’ 2023 second round pick. The Golden Knights also got the Sabres’ 2023 third round pick along with Eichel. At the time of the trade, Tuch had 139 points in 255 career games. Krebs was a 2019 first-round pick that had one point in 13 NHL games for Vegas. However, Krebs put up 103 points in 62 WHL games after being drafted. He also put up 10 points in 7 games with Vegas’ AHL affiliate.
Looking at it this way, Buffalo got two young, promising players as well as some draft capital for Eichel. It is reasonable to expect Calgary to get a similar package. The Devils certainly have the assets to make this type of trade. New Jersey has all of its own draft picks besides their 2023 third rounder (sent to Washington for Vitek Vanecek earlier this month) moving forward. The Devils also have a talented group of prospects that could get this deal done.
Prospects That Could Be Included
Alexander Holtz could be a name at the centerpiece of a deal. The 2020 seventh-overall pick has 30-40 goal upside, but has yet to stick at the NHL level. The 20-year old had a tremendous first year in the AHL last year, tallying 26 goals and 51 points in just 52 games. Calgary may view Holtz as a future Tkachuk replacement as the team rebuilds.
Another 2020 first-round pick, Shakir Mukhamadullin, may also be a player Calgary has interest in. The Russian defenseman made his AHL debut with three playoff games last season. Also, if general manager Tom Fitzgerald wants to hold onto Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, both top-four picks in the past two drafts, Mukhamadullin might be the best defense prospect New Jersey could offer.
Also, 21-year old Russian winger, Arseni Gritsyuk, had a breakout season in the KHL last year with 16 goals and 28 points in 39 games. The 2019 fifth-round pick also had three points in six games at the 2022 Olympics. He could also be a piece of a Tkachuk trade.
Roster Players That Could Be Included
Established NHL names could be a part of this package, but maybe not if Calgary wants to avoid rentals. The only Devils signed beyond the 2023-2024 season are Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat, Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, and Vitek Vanecek, besides players on entry-level deals like Nemec. While Damon Severson, a western Canada native, has value, Calgary may not have interest with Severson set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer. That applies to Tomas Tatar and Andreas Johnsson, too.
Jesper Bratt is an interesting name to consider, as he is currently a restricted free agent awaiting his own long-term deal. After a breakout year with 73 points in 76 games, Bratt’s value is high, but Calgary may want to see him extended before a potential trade. New Jersey may also try to keep Bratt out of a trade. Some other NHL-level pieces with team control as restricted free agents include Yegor Sharangovich and Dawson Mercer.
The Cap Space
When looking at the Devils’ current cap situation, many may not think it is possible to retain Bratt and sign Tkachuk longterm, if he is brought over. However, New Jersey can likely do so via the following potential moves:
- LTIR (longterm injury reserve) Jonathan Bernier.
- Trade Andreas Johnsson and/or Tomas Tatar.
- Trade Miles Wood.
- Recuperate savings from trading the players involved in the Tkachuk trade.
Between Bratt and Tkachuk you can forecast roughly $16,000,000 in annual salary between the two. As it stands, New Jersey projects to have roughly $9,500,000 in space. Keep in mind, the Devils also have to deal with current restricted free agents of Miles Wood, Jesper Boqvist, Fabian Zetterlund, and Tyce Thompson, in addition to Bratt.
So, to be conservative, New Jersey would most likely need to shed another $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 in cap. By making a few of the above bullet point moves, this seems very possible. So, to put it simply, yes, it is possible for the Devils to retain Jesper Bratt and bring in Matthew Tkachuk.
Conclusion
Clearly, there are several ways a Matthew Tkachuk trade between Calgary and New Jersey could play out, but it seems reasonable to assume a trade package starts with Alexander Holtz and a 2023 first round pick. From there, the Devils would also need to include a player like Yegor Sharangovich or Arseni Gritsyuk, in all likelihood. I would expect Tom Fitzgerald to try to keep Jesper Bratt in New Jersey. Although moving Bratt for Tkachuk would be an upgrade, it would certainly be less impactful for a Devils’ team trying to beef up its top-six to win now.
Similar to what Bufflo got for Eichel, the Devils would likely need to include a second round pick. It would likely be in 2024 since New Jersey would have already moved a 2023 first and third rounder. With the 2023 draft being considered a strong class, Calgary may ask for a late round pick if the Devils trade their 2024 second instead of 2023.
That brings us to a package that looks something like this:
- TO NEW JERSEY: Matthew Tkachuk
- TO CALGARY: Alexander Holtz, Yegor Sharangovich, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick
Now, this could all change depending on how much interest there is in Tkachuk. If there is a bidding war between multiple teams, the Devils could have to throw in another first or second-round pick or perhaps another prospect like Mukhamadullin.
There could also be a trade package with more NHL-ready talent that includes a player like Damon Severson who is more expendable with the recent acquisition of John Marino, but again, it remains to be seen if Calgary would have interest in an expiring contract.
That is what makes projecting trades so difficult. Nonetheless, the Tkachuk sweepstakes is surely going to be an interesting one.
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