The March 21st NHL trade deadline is rapidly approaching. The most interesting New Jersey Devils’ name to watch in the coming couple weeks? Damon Severson.

Severson has been named by many insiders as a name to watch as the deadline approaches. He checks in at number 35 on TSN’s Top-50 Trade Bait list. He also appears on Frank Seravalli’s latest trade board at number 14.

In all, Severson has played every single one of his 538 career NHL games with the Devils. Being drafted in the second-round of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft by New Jersey, he is red and black through and through. Looking back on it, he will most likely go down as the best non-first overall draft pick by the New Jersey Devils’ (outside Jesper Bratt) over the last 10 years (2012-2022). So, why is he such a highly debated player among fans?

Why is Severson so Polarizing?

Now, several most likely read the title and exclaimed “yes” in the comments without reading. Or some may have read the above paragraph and thought, “what the heck is this bozo talking about?” Without question, Severson has been the most polarizing, in terms of fan perception, the past couple years. So why is that?

All the data (more on that later) and in-depth watching of him would tell you Severson is a legit top-four defender on basically any team in the league. So, why the controversy?

It’s simple, when he makes an error, which based off the data is rare, it is usually a glaring one. Perfect examples are the two-on-one played so poorly against Toronto it was scrutinized by several on Twitter league-wide. Additionally, there was the beautiful move that Patrick Laine pulled off him Tuesday night. Do not forget about the unfortunate own-goals that for whatever reason always found Severson over the years. All together, those who are not receptive to the analytics or closely watch his play on a play-by-play basis, may see a very underwhelming defenseman.

Just How Good is Severson?

The Analytical Picture

To demonstrate how effective Severson is, let’s take a look at his underlying numbers. The below player card shows how effective Severson has been defensively over the past three years. He ranks in the league’s 90th percentile in this area. This largely due to terrific five-on-five play, both quality and quantity suppression. As well as solid work on the penalty kill.

Further evidence of how good of an impact defensively Severson has is his numbers this season. Severson ranks seventh among NHL defenseman in actual defensive impact (Def GAR). He ranks 13th in the NHL among defenseman in expected defensive impact (xDEF GAR) this season.

As for his offensive numbers, his offensive-impact is interesting to look at. Over the past three years his expected offensive impact is very strong. However, his actual impact in this area has been the complete opposite. The main reason for this is his teammates inability to finishing chances. Regardless, when Severson’s on the ice the Devils are creating and surpressing chances.

The Overall Picture

Watching Severson closely on a nightly basis, excluding the every once in a while blatant follies, paints a pretty picture as well. He makes several little plays a game that evidently go unnoticed by a large number of people. Whether it be breakups at the point of opponent entry, crafty plays in his own zone along the boards leading to a Devils’ breakout, or the number of terrific stretch passes he has made, Severson has done a lot well. All this, plus more, culminates in him putting up such terrific underlying numbers.

Why Would the Devils Trade Severson?

Now you may be asking, why would New Jersey trade such a strong asset? Well, it’s simple, he would net a massive haul. With another year of team control, only being 27-years old, and being able to play against top competition in all situations, he is extremely valuable. Just how valuable is he?

Per the above, some appear to think that Severson may be able to net a first-round pick, a borderline “A-level” prospect, as well as a current young NHL-ready player. Given all the positives discussed above, as well as the fact there won’t be many premier defensemen, let alone non-rentals, on the market, Severson may very well net a massive return.

Should the Devils Trade Severson?

Why New Jersey Should:

Three reasons jump to the forefront. First off, the one just discussed about above, New Jersey may be able to get a massive haul. Any deal that involves a first-round pick, a “A or high-B level” prospect, and a current young, solid NHL player should probably not be passed on. Of course, there are most likely other packages that would force general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s hand to accept.

Secondly, which no one truly knows the answer to, would Severosn even want to return? Since Severson broke into the league in 2014, the Devils have a combined record of 239-271-79. This point total ranks 28th best in the NHL over that span (keep in mind, both Seattle and Vegas are relatively new). Over this same time period, New Jersey only has one playoff appearance. It only lasted five games. Maybe New Jersey won’t even have the opportunity to retain Severson when the time comes. Why not maximize his value while you can?

Of course, this is easier said and done. The Devils are still a season before Severson enter a contract year. Who knows if the two parties have even discussed his pending unrestricted free agency.

Why New Jersey Shouldn’t:

First off, why trade one of the few successfully, home-grown players the Devils have had over the past 10-years? Especially one that would fit New Jersey’s perceived timeline when re-signed. The Devils have been in this constant cycle of trading away their better players toward the end of their contracts (Taylor Hall, Blake Coleman, Kyle Palmieri, etc.). In basically all the cases, it was the right move. As the team was either not in their window to contend or those guys did not warrant the money they would have commanded. However, Severson will most likely fit the window and at his age could very well be worth the money he would command.

Secondly, there is also no guarantee the return for Severson would be as good as alluded to above. If general manager Tom Fitzgerald is not able to get a King’s ransom at the trade deadline there should be no rush to move him. There is always next year. No one, besides the front offices, truly know what Severson may net.

Lastly, the most apparent one, Severson is a very good hockey player. Despite the occasional blatant mistakes, he is arguably a top-25, two-way defenseman. He is having a career-year in terms of offensive output and is playing like one of the better defensive-defenseman in the league. Championship teams, let alone playoff teams, do not let that talent get away when they can.

Conclusion

In the end it boils down to a plethora of different factors. Each broken down above. General manager Tom Fitzgerald has, what can be currently perceived as, a win-win scenario on his hands. He can deal Severson if he wishes for a potentially extremely modest package. If the value is not there, he can re-visit next year.

If the Devils so chose, and the interest is there from Severson, they can also re-sign the 27-year old defenseman long-term. Good players command good money. A contract extension would most likely bring Severson to age 33 or 34, an age he most likely would still be serviceable at. Most long-term contract at that time in a player’s career is going to feature a year or so of negative value. However, at the end of the day the numerous good years you get make it worth it.

Nonetheless, it’ll be extremely interesting to watch how the Severson situation unfolds.

Statistics courtesy of Evolving Hockey.