2015-16 Summary

Smith-Pelly began his season in Montreal and struggled find to his game in the one and a half seasons he was there. When Ray Shero acquired him at the trade deadline, he was looking to help provide the Devils with a younger player who would give them some depth on the lower two lines. It didn’t take long for Smith-Pelly to find his groove with the Devils. He tallied 11 points in his first ten games, including 7 goals. However, his production began to slow down over the final stretch of the season. In his final eight games, he recorded just 1 goal and 1 assist. He finished the season with 25 points in 64 games with over half of those coming with the Devils.

Even though Smith-Pelly managed to produce at better rates than he did Montreal, there are still some causes for concern. While he did manage 8 goals in eighteen games with the Devils, he finished with a 23.5% shooting percentage and was as high as 43% at one point, which are both unsustainable rates. Considering he is 9.9% career shooter, it’s unlikely that he is to continue at the torrid rate he was producing during the final eighteen games of the year.

A number of his underlying stats also fell when he arrived in New Jersey. He was a 48.5% possession player in forty-six games in Montreal while being only at 44.9% in New Jersey. He was also giving up way more scoring chances than he was creating. In New Jersey, he was -22 on scoring chances and was accounting for 19.5 chances per 60 as opposed to 25.3 chances against per 60 (via War on Ice).

Upsides 

In a 3rd/4th line role, Smith-Pelly brings some size and a bit of a scoring punch to the lower lines, which is something the Devils desperately need. One of the team’s biggest downfalls this season was secondary scoring. He’s probably not going to provide the team with 20-25 goals, but if he can chip 10-15 goals, that’d be a huge lift to the Devils. He’s also just 23 years old. He’s been inconsistent in his time in the NHL, but the Devils aren’t going to give him a long-term deal worth millions of dollars. They also gave up close to nothing to acquire him from Montreal. Considering the team is still in rebuild mode, taking a chance on a reclamation project like Smith-Pelly could benefit if he manages to fulfill his potential.

Downsides

If Smith-Pelly is bleeding scoring chances as he was in short time in New Jersey, he’s going to find himself in and out of the lineup quite often. His even-strength numbers will have to improve or otherwise someone else will take his spot in the lineup. There’s also a pretty good chance that he’s not going to score at the rate he did in his eighteen games with New Jersey. Smith-Pelly averaged 0.61 points a game in New Jersey, which would be close to 50 points in a full 82-game season. Considering the most points he’s ever tallied in a season is 25 in 2015-16, the Devils would be making a mistake if they put him in a role where he’s expected to score on a regular basis. If he’s used in a role that’s not suited to his skill set, this reclamation project could fail.

Devils Future

Smith-Pelly is almost a guarantee to return to New Jersey next season. The question will be for how long and how much? It’s highly unlikely that he signs a long-term deal. While he showed signs of being a steady player in his brief time in New Jersey, there’s still room for improvement. His even-strength numbers need to get better and he needs to show that he’s able to score at a consistent rate. It’s likely that Ray Shero signs Smith-Pelly to a bridge deal that gives him the opportunity to prove that he belongs in New Jersey. If he produces, then he could finally find himself a permanent home with the Devils.