The New Jersey Devils first playoff game since 2018 is just one day away. Of course, the hockey gods had to bless us with the Hudson River rivalry in the opening round.
Overview
After the most successful regular season in franchise history, where the Devils exploded through expectations and set franchise records for points in a season, wins in a season, as well as a NHL record for largest point improvement year-over-year, the team will look to make a deep playoff run.
Of course, that starts with needing to get past the team that finished third in the Metropolitan Division, the New York Rangers. The Rangers finished 47-22-13 on the season, five points back of the Devils.
They made a few big moves during the season, as they acquired Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane to bolster their lineup come playoff time. New York is a big and heavy team who made a conference finals run just last season. The Devils will surely have their work cut out for them.
As mentioned above, the Devils edged the Rangers out in the division so they clinched home ice advantage in the first round. The full schedule is below:
So, how does each team – who last met in the playoffs back in 2012 – matchup with eachother?
Devils’ Offense Versus Rangers’ Defense
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Devils’ offense and the Rangers’ defense, in key areas entering the series:
| Devils (league ranking) | Rangers (league ranking) | |
| Goals (for/against) | 3.52 (5th) | 2.63 (4th) |
| Shots (for/against) | 34.4 (4th) | 29.3 (6th) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 63.84 (4th) | 55.08 (14th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 3.15 (2nd) | 2.64 (17th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 34.41 (1st) | 28.97 (16th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 14.69 (3rd) | 12.51 (22nd) |
| Shooting Percentage (Devils) / Save Percentage (Rangers) | 10.24 (15th) | .910 (8th) |
Offensively, the Devils are led by a potent trio of forwards in Jack Hughes (43 goals and 99 points), Nico Hischier (80 points), and Jesper Bratt (73 points). Dougie Hamilton also was one of the best offensive defenseman in the league totaling a Devils’ record 22 goals to go along with a career-high 74 points. Further, Timo Meier scored at a 35-goal pace over 82 games after coming over from San Jose. Dawson Mercer (56 points), Tomas Tatar (48 points), and Erik Haula (41 points) also all chipped in.
As the above table shows, the Devils were one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. Their play at five on five rivaled the Carolina Hurricanes as the best in the NHL.
Further, the Rangers were not exactly the best with their five-on-five defense, though, when you have arguably the best goaltender in the league, Igor Shesterkin, these blemishes can be hidden. Regardless, at five on five, the Devils should have their way in terms of both quantity and quality.
Another aspect to ponder, and the reason why the ice should be tilted in New Jersey’s favor at even strength, is the amount New Jersey creates on the rush. As the above graph shows, New Jersey generates by far the most shots off rushes in the league. Meanwhile, the Rangers give up a lot of shots off the rush. As you can see them lumped in with the likes to that of the Anaheim Ducks and Arizona Coyotes.
The bottom line is the Devils should be able to exploit the Rangers at even strength and do so how they want to, that being on the rush and in transition. However, it won’t be that easy, as the Rangers have a brick wall in net that goes by the name of Igor Shesterkin (23.02 goals saved above expected and .926 save percentage at five on five).
Advantage: Devils
Devils’ Defense Versus Rangers’ Offense
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Rangers’ offense and the Devils’ defense, in key areas entering the series:
| Rangers (league ranking) | Devils (league ranking) | |
| Goals (for/against) | 3.33 (12th) | 2.71 (8th) |
| Shots (for/against) | 31.5 (16th) | 28.2 (5th) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 54.65 (23rd) | 54.11 (7th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 2.55 (22nd) | 2.42 (4th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 28.06 (20th) | 26.16 (4th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 11.75 (19th) | 10.32 (1st) |
| Shooting Percentage (Rangers) / Save Percentage (Devils) | 10.57 (10th) | .904 (11th) |
Offensively, the Rangers were led by two 90-plus point scorers in Artemi Panarin (92) and Mika Zibanejad (91). Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider also both chipped in more than 50 points, while Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko each tallied more than 40.
Meanwhile, on the back end, they got 60 assists and 72 points from former Norris Trophy winner, and likely finalist this year, Adam Fox. K’Andre Miller also chipped in 43 points from the blue line. Lastly, big in-season acquisitions Vladimir Tarasenko (21 points in 31 games) and Patrick Kane (12 points in 19 games) faired decently after their respective trades.
As the above table shows, the Devils should be able to suppress the Rangers offensively in terms of quantity and quality at five on five. New York wasn’t exactly world beaters in this area throughout the season, and relied more so on the power play (more on that later) and capitalizing on the chances they did get, as evident by their sixth-best shooting percentage at five on five.
That shooting percentage figure will be key for the Rangers. If they are able to beat the Devils, that number will likely be pretty high. As mentioned, at five on five, the Devils should control the ice and win the chances and shots counter.
Though, with finishers such as Tarasenko, Kane, Zibanejad, and Kreider, there is little doubt that the Rangers can take advantage of lackluster goaltending. And, as we have seen at points this season, the Devils can be susceptible to exactly that. So, titling the ice at five on five might not matter too much if New Jersey isn’t strong in net and the Rangers finishing prowess starts to shine.
Advantage: Devils
Special Teams
Devils’ Power Play Versus Rangers’ Penalty Kill
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Devils’ power play and the Rangers’ penalty kill, in key areas entering the series:
| Devils (league ranking) | Rangers (league ranking) | |
| Success Rate (power play/penalty kill) | 21.9 (13th) | 81.2% (13th) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 106.47 (12th) | 93.3 (9th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 8.61 (10th) | 7.48 (11th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 65.56 (9th) | 53.52 (9th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 26.16 (13th) | 22.31 (9th) |
| Shooting Percentage (Devils) / Save Percentage (Rangers) | 14.04 (16th) | .861 (16th) |
A lot was made of the struggles of the Devils’ power play at points in the regular season. Though, overall, the unit ended up being above average. New Jersey generates opportunities and converts on them at rates that are similar to how the Rangers’ penalty kill unit grades out. When looking at the success rates and the underlying figures it’s hard to point to an advantage for either side.
As far as how often the Rangers take penalties, they have taken the second-fewest minors in the NHL. So, there may not be a ton of opportunities for the Devils’ man advantage anyways.
As for if the Rangers can potentially counter New Jersey on the kill, the Devils also gave up about the league average in terms of shorthanded goals (eight). Meanwhile, the Rangers scored that exact number this season – again, about league average.
Though, these numbers may be a tad deceiving. The Rangers have actually generated the seventh-most expected goals for per 60 minutes while on the penalty kill this season. Meanwhile, New Jersey has the 12th-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes. The Rangers may be able to find some success countering the Devils while on the kill.
Advantage: Even
Rangers’ Power Play Versus Devils’ Penalty Kill
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Rangers’ power play and the Devils’ penalty kill, in key areas entering the series:
| Rangers (league ranking) | Devils (league ranking) | |
| Success Rate (power play/penalty kill) | 24.1% (7th) | 82.6% (4th) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 118.58 (1st) | 91.07 (5th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 9.87 (3rd) | 7.06 (4th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 71.19 (2nd) | 48.95 (2nd) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 31.21 (6th) | 21.44 (5th) |
| Shooting Percentage (Devils) / Save Percentage (Rangers) | 13.69 (17th) | .878 (12th) |
The Rangers have had one of the better power plays in the NHL over the past two seasons. In terms of chances and quality of those chances while a man up, New York graded out as one of the best in the league this year. That resulted in the fourth-best power play in terms of efficiency, which could have been even better if their 17th-Jo best shooting percentage was higher.
The Rangers specifically have two of the league’s best in terms of power play scoring. Mika Zibanejad has 39 power play points (42.8 percent of his total) and Artemi Panarin has 36 power play points (39.1 percent of his total). These totals rank seventh most and 11th most, respectively.
Given all this, in most matchups, this would be a huge advantage for the Rangers. Though, luckily for the Devils, their penalty kill has been very strong this season. When looking at the success rate and the underlying numbers in the aggregate above, the Devils have owned a top-three unit throughout the year.
Another aspect the Devils have going in their favor is they do not take a lot of minor penalties. The team has taken the fifth-fewest minors this season.
Further, New Jersey has scored nine shorthanded goals this season, which is tied for seventh-most in the NHL. The Rangers do not usually let teams counter while they are on the man advantage, as they have the sixth-lowest expected goals for per 60 minutes allowed. This means there likely is no advantage for the Devils there.
Regardless of the red and black having a good kill all season long, this is a Rangers’ power play that has been arguably the best in NHL since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. New York also acquired two terrific power play forwards in Tarasenko and Kane which should help that lower shooting percentage increase. The Devils would be wise to limit the minor penalties as much as they can.
Advantage: Rangers
Goaltending
Vitek Vanecek
The biggest issue for the 2021-22 Devils’ team was the league-worst goaltending they had. Well, in the offseason, general manager Tom Fitzgerald addressed this issue by brining in Vitek Vanecek via trade from the Washington Capitals. In his first season with the Devils, he impressed.
Vanacek became the second goaltender in Devils’ history to win 30-plus games in a season. He posted a 33-11-4 record with a .911 save percentage and 2.45 goals against average. All three of those were career bests for the the young 27-year-old who has only been in the league for three years.
Analytically, he saved 13.28 goals above expected which was 14th-most in the NHL among 102 goaltenders. His goals saved above average was also impressive, sitting at 7.65 which ranked 15th of the 102 qualified goalies. All in all he was very strong this season.
Below is a breakdown of Vanecek’s save percentages at different strengths and against high-danger opportunities:
| Overall Save Percentage (league ranking) | High-Danger Save Percentage (league ranking) | |
| All Strengths | .911 (18th of 61) | .802 (43rd of 61) |
| Five On Five | .920 (21st of 59) | .811 (44th of 59) |
| Penalty Kill | .892 (11th of 64) | .792 (28th of 64) |
One good thing Vanecek has going for him, specifically for this series, is how he has done a solid job backstopping while his team is on the penalty kill. As was discussed above, the Rangers are elite on the power play.
On the flip side, Vanecek has struggled at times saving high-danger shots. He ranks below the league average in this area. Luckily, the Devils do a great job at limiting high-danger chances and the Rangers are below league average at generating them. This should potentially help in that area.
Igor Shesterkin
Shesterkin has quickly cemented himself as one of the league’s best since entering the league in 2019. Since 2019, he has a .923 save percentage and has saved 75.65 goals above expected. These figures both rank third in the NHL over this time.
This past season was no different as he posted a 37-13-8 record to go along with a .916 save percentage. The analytics paint an even prettier picture as he stopped 27.85 goals above expected which was fifth-most of 102 goaltenders in the NHL this season. There is no doubt the Russian can single-handedly win a series for the Rangers, like he has done in the past.
Below is a breakdown of Shesterkin’s save percentages at different strengths and against high-danger opportunities:
| Overall Save Percentage (league ranking) | High-Danger Save Percentage (league ranking) | |
| All Strengths | .916 (10th of 61) | .852 (7th of 61) |
| Five On Five | .927 (8th of 59) | .876 (3rd of 59) |
| Penalty Kill | .850 (44th of 64) | .735 (52nd of 64) |
A good phrase to use to describe Shesterkin in this series is “the great equalizer.” As we saw, the Devils hold a very comfortable advantage at five on five. However, with Shesterkin in net, that advantage is shrunk down considerably.
Specifically, Shesterkin is one of the best goalies at stopping high-danger chances, and the Devils tally a ton of those. Something will have to give, and for the Devils’ sake, hopefully they can wear Shesterkin down eventually with all their chances.
One area that catches the eye above is Shesterkin’s lackluster performance while his team is on the penalty kill. For whatever reason, he has not been his best in compared to his peers, maybe this is something New Jersey can take advantage of.
Regardless, Shesterkin is by far the most important player for the Rangers in this series. They go as far as he goes, and that cannot be truer for New York in this matchup against a prolific offensive Devils team.
Advantage: Rangers
The Backups
Hopefully, for the sake of each team, the backups do not play a factor in this series. New Jersey is going to carry three goalies on their roster, so either Mackenzie Blackwood or Akira Schmid will back up Vanecek.
Schmid was the stronger of the two this season. He posted a .921 save percentage across 18 appearances with a splendid 8.47 goals saved above expected. Meanwhile, Blackwood posted another lackluster year with a .894 save percentage and 0.44 goals saved above expected across 22 appearances.
For now, it remains to be seen who will be Vanecek’s backup. However, if New Jersey needs to call on another goalie in this series, it should be Schmid.
As for the Rangers, veteran Jaroslav Halak appeared in 25 games and posted a .903 save percentage and 4.04 goals saved above expected. He was a fine compliment to Shesterkin this season. If he sees any meaningful time in round one for New York, it means they are in some trouble.
Advantage: Devils
Head-To-Head Matchups
The Devils and Rangers faced off four times this season with New Jersey emerging victorious in three of those games. The Devils only loss in the season series came in a 4-3 overtime decision in December.
Overall, though, it’s fair to say the Devils were certainly the better team. This despite three of the four games being decided by one goal, and two of the games going to overtime.
| Devils | Rangers | Ratio | |
| Goals | 14 | 11 | 56.00 in favor of NJ |
| Shots | 141 | 120 | 54.02 in favor of NJ |
| Corsi | 213 | 163 | 56.65 in favor of NJ |
| Expected Goals | 10.16 | 6.88 | 59.62 in favor of NJ |
| Scoring Chances | 125 | 75 | 62.50 in favor of NJ |
| High-Danger Chances | 54 | 28 | 65.85 in favor of NJ |
| Save Percentage | .901 | .908 | – |
| Power Play | 2/10 | 3/10 | – |
| Penalty Kill | 7/10 | 8/10 | – |
As the above shows, the Devils – in terms of quality and quantity – faired quite better than New York did over the four-game season series. However, goaltending and the occasional lack of finishing by the Devils helped keep the Rangers in the games and the score close.
A lot of people may argue that regular season performance means very little. One may even point to how the Devils swept the Lightning in the season series during the 2017-18 season before getting dismantled by them in the 2018 playoffs. Well, what is interesting is the Devils got dominated by the Lightning in the regular season that year, but carried terrific finishing and goaltending in three games they should have not have won, but did so. That is just one example, but, interesting nonetheless.
With all that being said, the regular season performances between these two teams can very well mirror what we see in the playoffs. It profiled exactly how we broke this matchup down above. Devils dominated the five-on-five play, but, good goaltending and special teams helped the Rangers stay close.
Final Thoughts
It has been a long time coming. However, it appears the Devils finally were able to recover from years of bad drafting to build what should be a perennial contender year in and year out. We will get to see that core group for the first time in the playoffs against their fierce rivals, the New York Rangers.
Whether or not the Devils win this series hinges on two things: how often they can beat Igor Shesterkin and how much they can contain a lethal Rangers’ power play.
As we seen above, New Jersey should be able to play their game and win the battle in the shot and scoring chance categories. They should also be able to play their style without issue, as the Rangers allow teams to play off the rush, something the Devils do the best of any team in the league.
The other point that is being brought up quite a bit is how the Rangers’ “heaviness” compares to the Devils’ up-and-down style. Will the Rangers be too big for New Jersey to allow them play their game? How will that effect the Devils – such as Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, and Mercer – who play a less physical game?
Well, in the previous four games it really did not make a difference. The Devils executed what they wanted to do. Though, things can change – especially when you see the same team potentially seven-straight times.
At the end of the day, numbers, statistics, and previous head-to-head meetings are just that. If that’s all it was, then why even play the series? However, what those things do help us with is gauge with what we should expect, and who should have the upper hand. And, as most of the numbers and previous performances show, that should be the Devils. They are rightfully favored and it will come down to the two huge questions posed above.
With all that being said, it should be a terrific series. Make sure you follow along with us via all our social media pages. Thank you for all the support this season and go Devils!
Statistics and analytics via NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey.
Note, “Corsi” is a shot attempt and “expected goals” measure how likely an attempt was to be a goal.