Midseason Report Cards: The Forwards

Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes. (Mandatory Credit: @njdevils on Instagram)

Tuesday night’s game against the Florida Panthers marked the 46th game of the 82-game schedule for the New Jersey Devils. The results for the team have largely been very good, as the 26-15-5 record indicates. However, of course, each player, on a granular level, have performed differently.

With the midpoint of the season just passing by recently, let’s take a look at how each member on the Devils, who have played a meaningful amount of games so far this season, have performed.

Note, the below grades take into account on-ice impacts, traditional statistics, expectations, among other factors. Additionally, Traditional statistics are up to date, advanced metrics are as of before play Tuesday.

Nathan Bastian

Unfortunately, Nathan Bastian missed a good chunk of the first half of the year due to injury. When he has played, which has been limited to 28 of the Devils’ 46 games thus far, his impact has been negligible.

His defensive game has stayed strong (86th percentile on-ice defensive metrics), which has been a hallmark of his game since entering the league. However, his offensive impacts are dreadful (eighth percentile), bringing down his overall value. He’s on pace to tally less than 10 points this season.

Grade: C-

Jesper Bratt

Still, somehow underrated in league circles, star forward Jesper Bratt is on pace for another monster season. After posting career-highs in assists (56) and points (83) in 2023-24, Bratt is on pace to break those once again (64 assists, 91 points).

Interestingly enough, despite the career-high point pace, Bratt’s on-ice metrics a little bit off what they were last season. More so defensively, where his impact has been comfortably below the league average (11th percentile).

Grade: A-

Paul Cotter

After coming over in exchange for Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid, Paul Cotter looked like a steal. Cotter had eight points in 13 October games, since then, he has only eight in 33 contests.

Despite the extended offensive drought, Cotter’s on-ice impacts are extremely strong. Cotter’s goals above replacement (GAR) per 60 minutes and expected goals above replacement (xGAR) per 60 minutes rank ninth and fourth, respectively, among 22 Devils skaters.

The point output may not be there right now, but he’s still having a positive impact on things overall. Not to mention, his 154 hits leads the Devils and ranks top 10 in the league.

Grade: B-

Justin Dowling

Given injuries to Curtis Lazar, and now Erik Haula, Justin Dowling has been thrusted into a much bigger role. Through 29 games, Dowling only has three points and his overall offensive impact has been quite poor. However, his on-ice defensive metrics are terrific.

When he’s on the ice, the opposition is only generating 1.59 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the lowest of any Devil to play at least four games this season. In an unexpected role, he’s been more than serviceable.

Grade: C

Erik Haula. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images

Erik Haula

The currently injured Erik Haula has had a rough go of it after two solid seasons to begin his Devils career. Haula is on pace for only 20 points, which is 15 lower than his previous low since joining the Devils. Additionally, his on-ice impacts at five-on-five are very poor. For example, his Corsi-for percentage (CF%) is among the worst on the team.

Luckily, he has still been a tremendous asset on the penalty kill. His shorthanded defense value, according to Evolving Hockey’s GAR metric, ranks fourth among 755 skaters in the league. Hopefully, the layoff due to injury helps him regain some form at five-on-five.

Grade: D+

Nico Hischier

The Devils’ captain started out red hot before slowing as of late. He’s still on pace to break the 30-goal threshold for the second time in his career and potentially set a career-high in that category.

His on-ice impacts are also extremely strong, especially at five-on-five. Offensively, even though his point output has slowed, his impacts are among the best in the league (97th percentile). Defensively, outside the penalty kill, Hischier also has performed very well.

Overall, he leads all Devils skaters in CF%, a figure that ranks 49th among 682 qualified skaters in the league.

Grade: A

Jack Hughes

Not only is the Devils’ superstar on pace for 95 points, but he’s also playing the best defense of his career. Hughes’ on-ice defensive metrics rank in the league’s 90th percentile. He’s been so strong on defense, head coach Sheldon Keefe has entrusted him with some penalty-kill time.

You can’t really ask for much more from the team’s superstar this season. Even though he may not quite hit the 99-points mark he posted on 2022-23, he’s putting together by far his best all-around season.

Grade: A+

Curtis Lazar

After a fantastic 2023-24 with the Devils, Curtis Lazar, thanks in large part to injury, has struggled mightily this season. Lazar has been limited to 20 games this season, posting only two points. His overall on-ice impacts have been very poor, as evident by the -1.5 GAR he has posted this season. This number ranks 19th among 22 on the Devils. Hopefully, with an extended run with some health, Lazar can find his 2023-24 form.

Grade: D-

Kurtis MacDermid

Kurtis MacDermid has found himself in the lineup 17 games this season. He is pointless and owns the worst CF% and expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) among Devils skaters who have played in at least 10 games so far this season.

Of course, MacDermid’s value is all about the intangibles. Whether those matter, or if he really has that impact is another conversation. But, the actual on-ice performances have been poor, despite only playing 5:19 a night when he has played. MacDermid is under contract through 2026-27 at $1.15 million.

Grade: F

Timo Meier. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images

Timo Meier

Timo Meier has had an interesting season. The traditional numbers are certainly not what you want to see out of the team’s highest paid player (30 points in 45 games). However, at all strengths, his 18.23 individual expected goals is the second-highest on the team. His individual expected goals per 60 minutes ranks ninth among 441 forwards to play at least 100 minutes of ice time at all strengths this year.

Theoretically, he is doing, or should be doing, what the Devils brought him to Jersey to do. The finishing hasn’t quite been there yet (14 goals on 18.23 expected), but he is generating a lot of individual scoring chances. Interestingly enough, his xGF% of 59.24 leads the team and ranks 18th among 682 qualified skaters in the NHL.

Grade: B-

Dawson Mercer

Dawson Mercer is on pace for a slight improvement on his career-low 33-point output last season. However, he is not currently slated to break the 20-goal threshold which he has done in each of the last two seasons. He also is nowhere near his breakout 56-point, 27-goal season in 2022-23.

However, despite the lackluster offensive traditional statistics, Mercer, for the first time in his career, is excelling defensively. Mercer’s on-ice defensive impacts rank in the league’s 91st percentile. His overall value, despite some markdown offensively, still is near the top on the team; fifth in total GAR and ninth in total xGAR among 22 Devils skaters.

Grade: B

Stefan Noesen. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Stefan Noesen

What an offseason signing Stefan Noesen was. Noesen is second on the team in goals (17) and has already surpassed his previous career-high mark (14). He’s on pace for 51 points, which would be by far the most of his career, while scoring over 30 goals for the first time.

Like has always been the case, his defensive metrics are decently strong as well. Factor that in with his elite offensive performances, his value at only $2.75 million is near the top of the league.

Grade: A-

Ondrej Palat

Veteran forward Ondrej Palat is benefitting greatly from having Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt as linemates. Despite this, Palat is still only on pace for 35 points which is far off his career 82-game average of 56.

His on-ice metrics are interesting. His offensive metrics are strong, however, his five-on-five defense has been poor. He also ranks dead-last on the team, among skaters to play at least 21 games, in xGF%. Overall, he’s providing decent value to the Devils, just nowhere near his $6 million per season value.

Grade: C+

Tomas Tatar

After signing a one-year deal in the offseason, Tomas Tatar has spent most of the season playing on the Devils’ fourth line. Given the linemates he has had to play with, the offensive output is unsurprisingly not there; nine points in 39 games.

However, his defensive metrics are very strong; 73rd percentile. Although not flashy, and not exactly thriving offensively, Tatar’s overall impact, especially taking into account who he has had to play with, has been fine.

Grade: C

On-ice metrics according to Evolving Hockey. Other statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.