As the All-Star break continues, our series of grading and quickly analyzing the first half performances of New Jersey Devils skaters and goaltenders continue. On Thursday, we took a look at the first half of Devils forwards and how they performed. In this edition, we will grade the remaining of that forward group.
Below are the grades for second half of the Devils’ forward group. We will be analyzing every Devils forward who have played in at least seven games this season. Part I of the series can be found here.
Max Willman
As is the case with several on this list, Max Willman was one of the plethora of Devils getting unexpected run with the NHL club due to the plethora of injuries. Willman has skated in 12 games for the Devils and has totaled two points. One of which was an important goal against the Chicago Blackhawks in his debut with the team.
By analyzing his on-ice metrics it is pretty clear Willman is not exactly a NHL-level player at this point and time. His xGAR of -2.1 is 21st of 24 skaters to appear in a game for the Devils this season. His xGAR per 60 minutes is by far the worst on the club and ranks third-worst among 459 skaters that have played at least 100 minutes of ice time this season.
Grade: F
Michael McLeod
Before leaving the team for personal reasons, Michael McLeod was breaking out in a big way and playing as one of the most positively-impactful forwards on the team. McLeod owns an xGAR that is third-highest on the team, trailing only Luke Hughes and Jesper Bratt. He was also on pace to set career-high in points and was leading the NHL in face-off win percentage.
To further demonstrate just how well McLeod was playing, his offensive on-ice metrics rank in the 79th percentile while his defensive metrics in the 83rd percentile, good for 91st overall. This encompassing his terrific work on the penalty kill and built upon his superb transition game and aforementioned face-off skills.
However, McLeod, along with four other members of the 2018 Canadien World Junior Championship team recently took a leave of absence as reports (per the Associated Press) are indicating that five members of that said team are being asked to surrender to police to face sexual assault charges.
Grade: A-minus
Nathan Bastian
Nathan Bastian is just a year removed from consistently playing as a top defensive fourth line forward. However, in 2023-24 the 26-year-old winger has seen his play crater significantly. He has only totaled 10 points in 45 games and has seen his ice time decreased to the point he is barely playing over 10:00 a night, on average.
The defensive impacts, granted not to the scale they previously were, are still decent as his GAR/xGAR defensive metrics are strong, but he has struggled mightily on the penalty kill. His offensive impacts are the issue, as he currently checks in at the league’s 11th percentile.
Grade: D-plus
Nico Hischier
It has been a very uneven season for the captain of the Devils. Nico Hischier has battled through injury but still is putting up decent impacts and numbers when in the lineup. Hischier is fourth on the team in scoring, with 28 points in 36 games, a point-per-game pace that ranks third only behind Jack Hughes and Bratt on the team.
His offensive on-ice metrics further confirm the strong point outputs, but unlike last year, his defensive metrics are troublesome. He has struggled on the penalty kill and at even strength in his own end, culminating in defensive metrics that rank in the league’s 16th percentile defensively. However, his total xGAR does rank in the top half of Devils forwards.
Grade: B
Ondrej Palat
Another player who was injured for a portion of the first half of the season is veteran Stanley Cup winning winger, Ondrej Palat. It has been a much better second season for Palat in the red and black. His point output may not exactly be there (16 points in 37 games), but the on-ice metrics are very strong.
Palat is third among Devils forwards in Corsi-for percentage (CF%), first in expected goals-for percentage (xGF%), and his total xGAR figure sits only behind Bratt, the Hughes brothers, and McLeod on the season. Specifically, Palat has been rock defensively, as his 5.1 xGAR defensive rating is 1.5 better than Curtis Lazar‘s who owns the second-highest on the team. As far as league ranking goes, his xGAR defensive number is the ninth-best overall and when broken out per 60 minutes is second among all NHL forwards with at least 15 games played. He has been elite on defense this season.
Palat may never live up to the contract he was dished out by general manager Tom Fitzgerald, but he has been an integral part to the team this year.
Grade: B-plus
Timo Meier
It has been an extremely disappointing first full season for Timo Meier. After signing an eight-year extension worth $70.4 million, he is enduring the worst season of his career. Granted, he has battled through numerous injuries, but the results have not been pretty.
Meier is on pace for 31 points and only 16 goals. Each of which would be the lowest of his career outside a 34-game rookie season in 2016-17. The on-ice impacts back up how poor of a year it has been. His -5.7 GAR and -4.4 xGAR rank last and second to last, respectively, on the Devils this season. Meier has been one of the worst defensive forwards in the league, as his third percentile on-ice metrics indicate.
He has had some encouraging flashes since coming back from injury, however, getting Meier right is imperative for the Devils.
Grade: D
Tyler Toffoli
Tyler Toffoli has been all that the Devils could have asked for since acquiring from the Calgary Flames. He leads the team in goals with 21 and is third in points. He is on pace for close to 40 tallies on the season which is not surprising give he has already had two hat tricks in the first half.
No surprise that his offensive on-ice metrics rank in the league’s 90th percentile. Outside of Bratt, in total, Toffoli has been the Devils best offensive player. Well worth the package the team gave up to acquire him.
Grade: A-minus
All of the above statistics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
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