Just How Good was Taylor Hall’s First Season in NJ?

Although the Devils W/L record may not indicate it, Taylor Hall had a significant impact for the Devils when he was on the ice (Photo by Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports)

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Going into this season, the Devils had some high expectations. With the acquisition of Taylor Hall, many fans hoped New Jersey would at least contend for a playoff spot. The Devils season has concluded and the team fell well short of that expectation and are now hoping they can land a top-three spot in the NHL Entry Draft. Despite falling short of expectations, the same can’t be said for Taylor Hall, who finished his first season in New Jersey with 20 goals and 53 points in 72 games. Those point totals may not seem all that impressive, but rest assured, Taylor Hall had a significant impact for the Devils when he was on the ice.

The following table lists some offensive and defensive stats, while comparing the Devils performance when Taylor Hall was on and off the ice at even strength.

Stats On Ice  Off Ice
Corsi For % 52.7% 45.3%
Shot Attempts per 60 min. 57.4 45.5
Shot Attempts against per 60 min. 51.1 55.1
Goals For % 52.1% 42.3%
Goals For per 60 min. 2.08 1.61
Goals Against per 60 min. 1.91 2.19
Expected Goals For% 55.1% 46.4%
Scoring Chances % 58.1% 45.9%
High Danger Chances % 56.9% 46.1%

The Devils had substantially better rates when Hall was on the ice all across the board and the differences aren’t close. Not only were they better in offensive situations, but they were also much better with him in defensive situations (shot attempts against per 60, goals against per 60). Although not directly listed in the table, Hall’s relative Corsi For% was +7.4%, which is indicated by the difference in his on-ice/off-ice Corsi For%. That was good for second best on the team behind only Beau Bennett.

If there’s any aspect of Hall’s game that lagged this year, it was his scoring rates at even-strength. A year ago, he scored eighteen goals at even-strength. This season, he finished with only eight, the second-lowest total of his career. However, he also shot a career-low 4.7% at 5v5 this season (via Hockey Analysis). His career even-strength shooting percentage prior to this season was 8.4%, so he’s a good bet to see a rebound in 5v5 goal scoring in 2017-18.

Because his even strength goal-scoring was down, Hall’s overall even strength scoring rate of 1.64 points per 60 minutes was the second-lowest of his career and his lowest since his rookie season where he averaged 1.57 points per 60 minutes (via Hockey Analysis). Prior to this season, he averaged 2.29 points per 60 minutes for his career. His fall in production can be attributed to two things: He played much of the season injured. Despite missing only eight games after knee surgery, Hall told the media at Monday’s breakup day that he didn’t feel 100% until fifteen games after he returned from surgery. He’s also skipping the World Championships due to some nagging injuries, so he’s played most of the season at less than 100%. The second reason is quite simple, the Devils just don’t have the proper supporting cast for him to be a 70-point scorer. Considering these reasons, it’s probably a good bet we’ll see an uptick in Taylor Hall’s scoring rates in 2017-18.

It’s hard to find any gripe with Hall’s play in his first season in New Jersey. He did everything you could’ve expected from him and while his point totals may not seem to indicate that, he was by far and away the Devils best player. This will most likely be a pretty active offseason for Ray Shero and the Devils front office. They have a building block in Taylor Hall and along with Kyle Palmieri, the team should be focused on building around those two players. Hall may’ve had a down year by his standards, but with an improved roster, especially on defense, I’d expect Hall to rebound next season and produce closer to the player that he was in his time in Edmonton.

Stats are from Corsica Hockey unless specified otherwise.

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