The relationship between Jonathan Drouin and the Tampa Bay Lightning has begun to unravel in recent days, at least publicly. Drouin was sent to Tampa’s AHL affiliate in Syracuse on Saturday.  Soon after, Allan Walsh (Drouin’s agent) reported that he requested a trade for his client back in November. You can read the full statement from Walsh here: https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/683690690212044801.

This puts Lightning GM, Steve Yzerman, in a difficult position. With the very real possibility of Steven Stamkos walking as an unrestricted free agent this summer, losing Drouin would be that much more devastating.

Yzerman is no fool when it comes to maximizing the value of a trade. There’s no need to look any further than the Martin St. Louis trade, where he tied Yzerman’s hands by saying he was only willing to go to the New York Rangers. St. Louis went to New York in exchange for Ryan Callahan, a 2015 1st-round pick, and conditional 2014 2nd-round pick (which became a 1st-rounder).

While Drouin’s numbers may not be eye-opening, he hasn’t played as poorly as some have perceived. He’s been a 52.8% possession player in 89 games, which is quite good. That puts him with the likes of Henrik Zetterberg and Zach Parise since the start of 2014-15 season. Drouin has also averaged 1.70 assists per 60 minutes at even strength since he came into the league. The only two players with better rates in that time frame are Jamie Benn and teammate, Ondrej Palat.

That’s very good company to be in.

Drouin’s goal totals may be an area of concern. He only has 6 in 89 games, but has never been advertised as an elite sniper capable of scoring 40+ goals. He finished his final season in the QMJHL with 29 goals and 79 assists. He averaged 1.29 assists and 0.60 goals a game over his entire juniors career.

It’s safe to say that Drouin has more than capable playmaking skills, but don’t expect him to become an elite sniper any time soon. His goal totals will go up, especially for someone who possesses as much upside and skill as him as he gets older. His shot totals will also go up. He’s only averaged 1.1 shots a game up to this point in his career, but as he gets more comfortable in the NHL setting, his skills will only get better.

If Tampa elects to trade Drouin, Yzerman is not going to let him go for nothing. If that were the case, he would’ve done so already. Drouin still has great value as a 20-year old forward with RFAs years still ahead of him. Any team looking to acquire him would be able to control his rights for quite some time. That makes his trade value that much higher.

So what would it take for the Devils to acquire Drouin from Tampa? Kyle Turris was traded to the Ottawa Senators for David Rundblad, who now plays in Switzerland, and a 2nd-round pick. Turris was the 3rd overall pick in 2007 and was unhappy with his situation in Arizona, much like Drouin in Tampa. So if you’re looking for a recent comparison, there you have it.

Where I don’t think the Turris situation compares to Drouin is what the final return could be. Yes, Rundblad was considered a top, even elite defensive prospect at the time, but he did not pan out. The Devils would possibly have to hand over their 1st-round pick. You’re also looking at the possibility of trading an NHL-caliber player. The Devils may not have any forwards they’re willing to part with, but I’m sure Tampa would love one of Adam Larsson or Damon Severson. I don’t think the Devils would be willing to part either one, but it’s possible.

You could also be looking at trading one of your top prospects. The Devils drafted Pavel Zacha, but I highly doubt they’re going to part with him 7 months after drafting him. After that, the Devils have a few good prospects, but no one elite. Blandisi and Boucher are very respectable prospects, but I don’t think they’d be what Tampa is looking for to replace Drouin’s loss long term.

In conclusion, the Devils could be looking at trading their 1st-round pick, one of Larsson/Severson and could even have to throw in Zacha to sweeten the deal. It’s most likely a price too steep to pay and one they may just simply be not able to afford.

While it may be a price too steep for New Jersey, somebody will pay for Drouin. Being just 20-years old while having RFA years ahead of him will be too enticing for any team to back off. Not to mention that Drouin’s numbers are pretty good for a 20-year old who’s had limited time in the NHL so far.

Where Drouin ends up remains to be seen. There’ll be no shortage of suitors if Yzerman does shop him. He could even end up staying in Tampa. If he is shopped, Yzerman will undoubtedly have inquiries from all 30 NHL teams and will make for an interesting story going forward. Especially as we get closer to the trade deadline.