Inside the Numbers: A Look at the Devils Top Line

Ed Mulholland:USA TODAY Sports (Henrique)

(Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports)

At 11-8-1, the New Jersey Devils have been one the NHL’s biggest surprises through the first 20 games of the season. A large reason for that is the production of the team’s top line of Mike Cammalleri, Adam Henrique, and Lee Stempniak. Cammalleri leads the team with 21 points in 20 games, while Henrique leads the team with 9 goals scored in 20 games.

One of the line’s biggest strengths has been scoring at even strength. As a team, the Devils are in the bottom 5 of the league at even strength scoring, having just scored 24 goals. The Cammalleri/Henrique/Stempniak line has accounted for 40% of their goals for when on the ice at 5v5. The Devils would be in a huge hole right now if this line weren’t producing the way it is.

As a line, the trio boasts a 52.1% possession line. They also fit into the “low-event” hockey brand that has been used to describe the Devils style of play this season. Low-event hockey is when a team doesn’t create many shot attempts for, but also doesn’t allow many shot attempts against. For example, the Devils Corsi For per 60 is dead last in the NHL (43 shot attempts per 60 minutes) while they’re Corsi Against per 60 is best in the league (Just 46.02 attempts per 60 minutes).

The Henrique line fits right into the mold of low-event hockey. They don’t create a bunch of shot attempts for per 60 minutes, but they also don’t allow a whole lot of shot attempts against per 60 minutes, which fits in perfectly with the way the team has been playing this season. Considering the line doesn’t create a bunch of shot attempts for per 60 minutes, it makes the rate they are producing at all the more impressive.

It’s yet to be seen if this line can keep producing at the rate they are right now. At his current rate of production, Mike Cammalleri is on pace to finish with 86 points, the highest he’s had since 2008-09 when he had 82 points with Calgary. It’s not just Cammalleri who’s off to a hot start either. If Stempniak keeps it up, he’ll finish with 65-66 points, which would set a new career high for him. Henrique could also set career highs for goals and points where he would finish with 36 goals and 61 points.

I think it’s unlikely that these three players can sustain the rates they’re producing at right now. Henrique’s shooting percentage after twenty games sits at 19.1% and is even higher at even strength (20%). Both those numbers are most likely not sustainable in the long term. However, for his career, he is a 14.8% shooter and shot 18.2% in 2013-14, where he set a career high with 25 goals.

While expecting him to finish shooting at 19% may not be reasonable, finishing somewhere in the 13-14% range seems acceptable given his career numbers and average. He’s also on pace to set a career high for shots on goal (193). The more shots he fires on net, the more likely he’ll score, which will help any sort of regression he may go through as the season progresses.

Ed Mulholland- USA TODAY Sports

(Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports)

The biggest surprise of the three has been Lee Stempniak, who has 16 points in 20 games. He’s done a bit of everything for the Devils from playing on the powerplay to helping kill penalties. New Jersey certainly didn’t think they’d be getting this from Stempniak to the start season. He’s given them all they could ask for through the first twenty games and then some. If the Devils are in contention at the trade deadline, he’ll be a valuable part of the team making a playoff push. If not, then he’ll most likely get the Devils a nice return in a deadline deal. Stempniak’s presence can only benefit the Devils and is turning out to be one of Shero’s best value signings made prior to the start of the regular season.

Associated Press File Photo

(Associated Press File Photo)

The key for the Devils (aside from Cory Schneider) will be Mike Cammalleri. Cammalleri has been getting it done all over the ice in all situations. He leads the team with 12 points at even strength (5 goals and 7 assists) and is only behind Kyle Palmieri for most points on the powerplay. He also leads Devils forward with a 52.4% possession rate.

He’s currently on pace to have a career year. As mentioned earlier, he hasn’t finished with 80+ points since 2008-09. At 33 years old, can he keep up at this pace for the entire season? He certainly hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet. He’s currently shooting at 13.2% and is a 12.6% average shooter for his career.

Cammalleri is on pace to finish with 29 goals and 57 assists this season, and it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility he finishes with those totals at the end of the season, especially in the goals department. Just last season, he finished with 27 goals on what was a very bad Devils team. If Cammalleri does finish with 80+ points, he can certainly lead the Devils to one of the Wild Card positions in the Eastern Conference.

The Cammalleri/Henrique/Stempniak line has been a huge part of the Devils success early on. With the first quarter of the season coming to a close, the Devils would not be in the position they are in without this line. Will they continue to produce at the rate they are? Or will they come back down to Earth? Whatever the case may be, they’ve given Devils fans a reason to be excited and something to look forward as the season continues to move on.

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