With the July 1 beginning of free agency quickly nearing, different players are being linked to different teams. According to Elliote Friedman on the 32 Thoughts Podcast, he believes that the Devils are one of the teams to show interest in the likely soon-to-be former Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce.
Would this hypothetical move make sense? What would the Devils be getting in the 29-year-old?
The Background
As mentioned, Brett Pesce is now 29 years old. Importantly, he plays the right side. More on that later.
Pesce has played his whole nine-year career with the Hurricanes, beginning in 2015-16 as a 21-year-old. He was drafted in the third round of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
The Tarrytown, New York native has some size to him, being listed as six-foot-three and 206 pounds. He has 627 career regular season games under his belt and 57 playoff games. Pesce missed most of the playoffs in 2024 with a fractured fibula.
The Statistics
Although usually having extremely strong on-ice offensive impacts, Pesce does not exactly rack up the point. His career-high was a 30-point output in 2022-23. His career average over an 82-game schedule sits at roughly 26 points. He has only scored 39 goals in 627 career regular season games.
Of course, point totals is not the measuring stick when it comes to quantifying a defenseman’s value. Over the last three seasons, Pesce has totaled a goals above replacement of 18.5. Of the 19 defensemen who have played for New Jersey at least once over the last three seasons, Pesce’s 18.5 mark would rank third.
Specifically, according to Evolving Hockey, over the last three seasons, Pesce’s overall on-ice impacts rank in the league’s 60th percentile; 59th offensively and 42nd defensively. He has done this while playing relatively tough competition, averaging over 21 minutes per night.
Pesce is a solid all-around defenseman that can excel on both ends of the ice. He may not be the most effective puck-mover, but what he does do is suppress the opposition and limit their chances in transition and around the net. As the above points out, Pesce did a great job at limiting opposing player’s chances of high-danger passes. He also did a good job at limiting opposition’s shots off the rush. Both areas the Devils need to improve on.
Pesce has also been a superb penalty killer the last few seasons. As the below chart indicates, Pesce does a great job defending on the actual kill, not taking penalties at five-on-five himself, and drawing penalties by the opposition. He is a player that can do a lot right.
The Contract
Pesce signed a six-year, $24.1 million extension back in 2017. His annual average value was $4.025 million, which was a fantastic deal for him and the Hurricanes. With him showcasing his ability further and turning himself into the player that he is today, a pay raise is due.
Given what defensemen have gotten for contracts over the last few seasons, Pesce could land a lucrative contract. According to Evolving Hockey, the projected contract for him sees his annual average value to rise to $5.5 million per season. This over a five-year term.
It would not be surprising to see Pesce, 29-year-old, net a six-year deal just north of that projected $5.5-million mark.
The Fit
There is a bit of a logjam on the Devils’ blueline, especially on the right side. Currently in place is Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, and rookie standout Simon Nemec. So, where would Pesce fit?
There isn’t necessarily a fit for Pesce on the Devils’ back-line as is. It would have to come at a cost of either moving a player on the current roster or asking one of the four right-side playing defenseman (Hamilton, Marino, Nemec, or Pesce) to flip sides. The most realistic scenario appears to be the team moving on from John Marino.
Given the projected contract Pesce will receive, and the fact Marino is a similar player, younger, and is only on the books for three more years at $4.4 million, would Pesce really be an upgrade? Not to mention, Marino had a modified no-trade clause that kicks in at the beginning of the new league year. Given all that, it would probably be wise for the Devils to use their $16 million in salary cap space elsewhere. This is, unless, the team has a plan in place that will see a guy like John Marino net assets and fill a need elsewhere.