Introduction

As some of you may have heard, the New Jersey Devils are the supposed frontrunners to acquire Minnesota Wild forward Kevin Fiala. As per the below, the Athletic cited the Devils as not only the “front runner” but also a “good fit.”

From Lisa Dillman’s latest LA Kings mailbag: “Most people around the league seem to think the #NJDevils  are frontrunners for Kevin Fiala” pic.twitter.com/2EmeN21wW0

— Alex Chauvancy (@AlexC_THW) June 6, 2022

The rumor has been going around for good reason. With Fiala being on the Wild’s trade block, and the Devils with ample assets, the two teams seem like a perfect fit for trade partners.

How Good is Fiala?

The simple answer, at least if you’re looking at his time in Minnesota, is very good. Starting out with the base statistics, Fiala has collected 79 goals and 186 total points in 215 games with the Wild. His five-on-five possession statistics are very solid as well, with Fiala posting a 51% Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and 53.2% expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). The figure below displays Fiala’s wins above replacement percentage over the past three seasons with the Wild.

Why Would the Wild Move Him?

There are a couple different reasons why Kevin Fiala is on Minnesota’s trade block. First off, the Wild are in a major cap crunch. Fiala is a restricted free agent and the Wild have a projected $7,400,000 in cap space this summer. This with still another goalie to sign as well as restricted free agent Jacob Middtleton. The cap crunch is largely created and accelerated by the buy-outs of Ryan Suter and Zack Parise last offseason

Secondly, Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin has said to the public that he is not willing to move defender Matt Dumba’s contract to clear cap space. So, if it is not Dumba moved, all signs may point towards the pending restricted free agent (RFA) – Fiala – being moved.

With all of the above in mind, the Wild don’t have the leverage to win a trade involving Kevin Fiala. So, could he come at a bit of a discount?

Mock Trade

Now that we know how good Fiala is and why he would be traded, as well as the fact that the Wild don’t have leverage in the trade, let’s look at what a potential package for Fiala could look like.

For starters, fellow RFA Pavel Zacha should be a no-brainer to be included in the deal, as he also has been rumored to be traded this offseason. Along with Zacha, an “A/B-tier” prospect should be included. Possibly a player such as Nolan Foote or Graeme Clarke.

A young middle-six forward and a “A/B-tier” prospect isn’t enough for Fiala obviously. So, what draft picks would make sense to be included? Maybe a second round pick this year (if the trade is pre-draft) or next year and a third round pick the year after.

So overall a potential trade proposal for Kevin Fiala could look like:

Another possible option is to remove the two picks and add a protected 2023 first-round selection. Ultimately, it is very difficult to project a trade when you are not behind the scenes. Maybe Fiala’s value isn’t suppressed at all, and it will require a first-round selection. Only time will tell.

Potential Contract

As previously mentioned, Kevin Fiala is a RFA this summer. So, if general manager Tom Fitzgerald were to bring in Fiala, he would need a new contract.

CapFriendly forecasts a player of Fiala’s caliber to take up between 6.5-8.5% of a team’s salary cap. Next year, with a maximum limit of $82.5 million that works out to an annual average salary of between $5,000,000 and $7,000,000.

Fiala has been especially good the past three seasons, so let’s say he’s on the higher end of that range, say eight percent. Eight percent of $82.5 million is a $6,600,000 AAV. According to Evolving Hockey, who projects Fiala at a shade over $8,333,333 a season, that is still a bit low.

A fair deal for Fiala would most likely check in at the six-year range. A soft spot in the middle of the above two projections would be $7,250,000. This deal would be almost identical comparable to both Kyle Connor’s and Mark Stone’s first real extension.

Conclusion

Overall, should the Devils go after Kevin Fiala? Yes, definitely, especially if they can get him for the price and cap hit projected in this article. Fiala would be a perfect fit for a team that seems to be just a few pieces away from really contending in the NHL. Not to mention, he would fit in perfectly next to fellow countryman Nico Hischier.