Introduction
No, the answer is not because, “analytics are dumb.” Analytics play an extremely large role in every major sports league in the United States today, and hockey is no different. Each analytical statistic tells a different story, even if it involves some extra digging to discover the full story. And in the case of the New Jersey Devils this year, more digging is exactly what is needed.
The Statistics
Surprisingly, the Devils’ underlying five-on-five possession statistics paint a picture of a playoff team and not one that is 14-22-6 and one of the worst in the NHL. The two statistics that are a very good measure of play and result is Corsi-For % (CF%) and expected goals-for % (xGF%). Let’s take a deeper dive into how the Devils grade out in these areas.
Corsi-for % (CF%)
The CF% statistic measures a ratio of shot attempts, so this ratio is more a measure of quantity the team is generating versus the quantity they are allowing. The New Jersey Devils own a CF% of 52.58 at five-on-five play, which is good for sixth-best in the NHL. This number is indicative of a team that does a good job, on a nightly basis, of generating a decent amount more shot attempts than their opponents. Worth noting, 50.00 is considered “average,” so the Devils rank well above average in CF%.
Expected Goals-for % (xGF%)
The other statistic mentioned, xGF%, takes CF% and refines it. This figure is a ratio of how many goals a team is expected to score versus how many a team is expected to allow. The statistics takes into account the danger of a shot attempt based off where it’s coming from, among other qualities. In comparison to its counterpart, CF%, xGF% measures the quality as well as quantity. The Devils own an xGF% at five-on-five of 51.18 which is 11th in the NHL. Keep in mind, average is 50.00.
High-Danger Corsi-for % (HDCF%)
Another statistic which will help further an argument I am going to make later on is the Devils’ high-danger Corsi-for % (HDCF%). Basically, this measures just the amount of high-danger shot attempts a team generates in a game. The Devils own a HDCF% of 49.55. This number, although slightly below the average of 50.00, ranks in the top half of the NHL, 14th.
Can These Number be Inflated?
Many may think the above may be inflated a bit due to the Devils always playing from behind. This is an extremely reasonable concern, and one I had myself. But, as wild as this may seem, the Devils’ numbers are actually better when tied, than overall.
When tied, the Devils own a CF% of 53.33 which ranks seventh. The team has an xGF% of 55.03 that ranks at an even more impressive fifth in the League. This was very surprising to discover, because as we know, it seems whenever the game is tied, 0-0, 1-1, etc., the Devils are almost always the team that falls behind.
Why are the numbers so good, but the results, not so much?
Above is a lot to digest, but when broken down usually paints a picture indicative of the results that a team should be getting. As we see, this certainly is not the case for the New Jersey Devils. So, why is that? What is the reasoning for this rare discrepancy? Don’t fret, analytics always paint a picture, and although not an obvious picture a deeper dive does indicate what exactly is going on.
When a team is not getting a result that the team’s underlying numbers show, there are usually four different aspects that attribute to this: bad goaltending, poor special teams, bad luck, or poor finishing. So, let’s look at each in-depth and how it pertains to the Devils.
Luck
The main “luck statistic” used in hockey is something called PDO. PDO is simply the measurement of a team’s save percentage plus the team’s shooting percentage. It is understood that this number, over time should always average out to 100.0.
PDO numbers over 100.00 are perceived to be a bit lucky, specifically ones that hit the 1.02 mark or higher. PDO numbers below 100.00, specifically those below .980 show a team that are experiencing a decent bit of bad luck. This statistic does get a little questionable at points, but overall, I think it paints a pretty telling picture.
When the Devils were playing very good hockey, pre-COVID-19 team-stoppage, the team’s PDO was well above 100.00 and one of the highest in the NHL. Now, the Devils’ PDO ranks 29th only higher than the Flyers and Senators at a mark of .979. This tells two stories, one of which will lead into another reason for the abnormality on this list below.
The first being the Devils are facing pretty solid goaltending and their shots are not getting through. The other is the Devils netminders are not making saves on the “easier shots.” We touch on both of those key points below.
Overall, the idea of “luck” is an interesting one. Sure, some puck bounces have not gone the Devils way this season, and at some points they have faced some absurdly good goaltending. Can this be categorized as luck? Possibly, and this does play some of a role in the discrepancy. However, out of all the reasons discussed in this section, PDO is most likely the least responsible for the abnormalities occurring this season.
Special Teams
Keep in mind, the above statistics are all measurements of five-on-five play, and do not take into account any power play or penalty kill time. Although five-on-five statistics are extremely important and usually way more of an indicator of how a team fares, special teams can have an effect as well. And in this case, it is no different.
The Devils power play ranks 29th at 13.3% and the penalty kill ranks 31st at 71.6%. As a unit the Devils have the worst special teams, by a pretty wide margin, of any team in the NHL. This is an area that will certainly need to be addressed next year. What doesn’t help, specifically the penalty kill, is the Devils are an extremely undisciplined team. The team has the second most penalty minutes in the league, despite playing one of the fewest number of games.
This statistical discrepancy is not solely because of special teams. But the effect of them being so bad in this area definitely plays a role. There are a couple games this season where the Devils saw their power play go 0-4 or worse. There’s also been games where the team’s penalty kill allows two or three goals, which have resulted in direct losses. However, special teams are not the sole reason for the misalignment.
Goaltending
One of the safer bets to make on the Devils before the season started was the team’s goaltending. Boy, did that not hold true.
The Devils have a team save percentage at all strengths of .896 which is 27th in the NHL. Mackenzie Blackwood has regressed this year, mainly after his bout with COVID-19. He holds a save percentage of .901 on the year and his save percentage above expected (at five-on-five) ranks 25th of NHL starters. Please note, I am not worried about Mackenzie Blackwood overall. He has had to battle COVID-19 as well as an extremely compact schedule.
Other goalies that occupied the Devils crease have seen their numbers steadily decline as well. Scott Wedgewood’s save percentage is down to .907 after a strong start and Aaron Dell owns a save percentage of .880 this season. Overall, it has been a rough season for the Devils’ goaltender trio.
Goaltending is usually the number one reason for discrepancies like the Devils are facing, and could be the main reason in this case. As a group, the Devils’ goalies have certainly been underwhelming, but not the sole reason for the huge abnormality in the numbers.
Inability to Finish
The Devils are 28th in the NHL averaging 2.45 goals per game. Yet, the New Jersey Devils rank 17th in the NHL with an expected goals-for of 106.9 which translates to an average per game of 2.55. Why the discrepancy? It is simple, the Devils lack the ability to convert on their chances.
Further evidence of this is the Devils poor PDO ranking, as was mentioned earlier. The Devils team shooting percentage is 8.3%. This ranks 30th in the NHL only better than the Detroit Red Wings. Another instance showing the Devils just extreme inability to finish chances.
Too many nights this season had fans coming away thinking that the Devils did not play all that bad, but just did not get a result. When this was said, nine times out of 10 the score saw the Devils only tallying a goal or so. The lack of finishing plagued the Devils too many times this year and needs to be addressed this offseason.
Conclusion
The New Jersey Devils have been a victims of just an extremely weird season. The team’s underlying numbers are very solid, but yet are in contention for a top-three draft selection. A deeper dive into the numbers tell you exactly why this discrepancy exists. In order of impact: the inability to finish, goaltending issues, terrible special teams, and bad luck.
The first two show the extreme need to make moves to shore up the forward group via trade or free agency in the offseason as well as sign an established back-up or “1B” goaltender. A deeper breakdown into certain players that can be relied on to fix these issues is in the works. Focusing on drafting goal-scorers would also be a good idea for the Devils.
The bright side to all this? You can say with the evidence of statistical data, Head Coach Lindy Ruff’s system is working and looks to be an answer for a team looking for an effective system since before the John Hynes era. Now, the Devils just need to get the correct players into this system. Specifically, some guys that can put the puck into the back of the net.
Statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and NHL.com. All statistics are of the beginning of the day on April 16th 2021.