Tuesday evening, Dave Pagnotta of the Fourth Period reported on the situation in Calgary explaining that talks surrounding their blueliners are picking up. In the report, Pagnotta goes on to specifically mention the New Jersey Devils and linked them to Flames’ defensemen Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin.
The Devils enter Wednesday night’s contest against the Washington Capitals with a 19-14-2 record in the thick of the playoff race. With over half the season yet to go, there is plenty of time to continue up the standings after the slow beginning to the season. Adding either Tanev or Hanifin would only likely accelerate their march.
How pressing of a need is defense? What would they be getting if they were to acquire one of these defensemen?
How Troublesome Is The Devils’ Defense?
Defense has not exactly been the Devils’ issue this year. There is no doubt the unit has regressed from last season, however, when you look how they stacked up last year in several key categories, you can see how regression, especially when you factor in three young contributors this season and the perceived season-ending injury suffered by star defenseman Dougie Hamilton, was to be excepted. However, despite this regression, the unit still grades out pretty well at five on five, as the below illustrates:
| Category | Statistic (per 60 min.) | League Rank |
| Corsi Against | 52.25 | 4th |
| Expected Goals Against | 2.43 | 10th |
| Scoring Chances Against | 24.25 | 5th |
| High-Danger Attempts Against | 10.91 | 10th |
| Shot Against | 27.8 | 9th |
Further, despite ranking 22nd on the penalty kill with a 77.7% success rate, the unit is giving up the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the league. They are doing a good job suppressing quality and quantity of opponent chances, however, the puck is still ending up in the back of the net at a below-league average rate.
With all that being said, why do the Devils 29th rank in goals against per game? It is simple; goaltending. The Devils own a team save percentage at all strengths of .879 which is dead last in the league. New Jersey’s two main goaltenders this season, Vitek Vanecek (-10.8) and Akira Schmid (-3.01), rank 67th and 80th respectively, of 81 qualified goalies, this year in goals saved above expected (GSAx). GSAx is a great statistic that helps isolate goaltending play from team defense.
The isolated defensive numbers are good, the isolated goaltending numbers are bad. The picture is clear.
If New Jersey is not going to acquire a goaltender, which according to Elliotte Friedman on his 32 Thoughts podcast is quite difficult right now given the perceived “ridiculous” price, improving an already above-average defensive core would be the next best option.
Chris Tanev
If you are looking for the cheaper and more defensive-minded Flames’ defenseman, Chris Tanev would be the guy for you. Over the last three seasons, the 34-year-old ranks in the league’s 98th percentile defensively. More specifically, over the last five seasons, Tanev’s 310 defensive goals above replacement (GAR) rating is the highest of 449 defenseman. Overall, his total GAR of 39.3 ranks 19th.
He is a sound, not overly physical defenseman, who blocks a lot of shots. Throughout his career, over an 82-game schedule, he is averaging nearly 168 blocked shots. He also excels on the penalty kill, as one would suspect, given his defensive acumen (evidence above).
It is worth noting, Tanev is having a down year thus far. His GAR per 60 minutes (GAR/60) is currently on pace to be the lowest of his 14-year career. Granted, his defensive metrics are still around the league’s 50th percentile. However, given the aging and the career-worst pace he is on, there is slight concern.
The 34-year-old, right-handed shot carries a cap hit of $4.5 million and is in the last year of his deal. He does own a modified no-trade clause in the form of a 10-team no-trade list.
Noah Hanifin
The former fifth-overall pick back in 2015 is now 26 years old. Noah Hanifin is a left-handed shot who has more favorable offensive than defensive impacts throughout is career. However, each are at or above the league’s 50th percentile over the last three seasons. In addition, when asked to, he has also done strong work on the penalty kill, as evident below.
As it relates to traditional offensive numbers, the former Carolina Hurricane has averaged about 33 points over an 82-game season throughout his career. However, as mentioned, the overall offensive impacts have always been strong. Additionally, he excels at getting shots on net, posting 189 shots on goal in 2021-22 and 176 in 2022-23. Hanifin also eats up a ton of minutes, as he is averaging a career-high 23:19 of ice time a night this season.
Unlike Tanev, Hanifin is having a solid 2023-24 campaign. His GAR/60 is the second-highest mark of his career and overall metrics place him in the league’s 72nd percentile.
Hanifin is in the last year of his deal which carries an annual average salary of $4.95 million. He also has a modified no-trade clause where he can submit an eight-team no-trade list. In his Tuesday evening report, Pagnotta noted that Hanifin, “came close,” to signing an eight-year extension with Calgary worth around $60 million total. However, he opted to wait and see, “how the team would perform before committing long-term.”
So, it appears Hanifin would certainly be open to an extension with a team positioned as a projected-sustainable winner. However, this may be a risky proposition as his current market value is only $5.8 million according to the Athletic, much less the extension he will likely demand and almost signed not too long ago.
Final Thoughts
By acquiring either of the above defensemen the Devils would instantly be better for it. Despite defense overall not exactly being the main issue, it would help alleviate additional stress from the struggling Devils’ goaltenders.
The Devils certainly have the assets to get a deal done. With the injury of Dougie Hamilton, the team can officially place him on long-term injured reserve freeing up nearly $8 million in cap space. Further, the team still has 12 draft picks the next two seasons and all of their seven selections in 2026. Not to mention, they still have a plethora of potentially enticing tradable assets in Alexander Holtz, Arseni Gristyuk, Seamus Casey, Lenni Hämeenaho, Graeme Clarke, Josh Filmon, among several others.
As for the two options discussed in depth above, outside the fact each are pending unrestricted free agents, they are two totally different cases. Tanev will likely cost much less given his age and he will bring an extremely strong defensive game on the right side. Meanwhile, Hanifin is much younger, likely to cost much more, but brings a more complete game, favoring offense, from the left side. Not to mention, he would likely open to an extension on a likely perennial contender such as the Devils.
The other aspect to contemplate is where either player would fit. Tanev, playing on the right side, would add to a group of John Marino, Simon Nemec, Brendan Smith, and Colin Miller. Not to mention, whenever Hamilton returns, if he does, plays on that side as well. Meanwhile, on the left side, New Jersey has the struggling Jonas Siegenthaler and Kevin Bahl, as well as budding star Luke Hughes. That is where Hanifin would slid in.
Regardless, general manager Tom Fitzgerald will have a lot of interesting decisions to make in the coming months as the trade deadline approaches and the season ticks on. Despite not exactly hitting expectations just yet, the issues with the 2023-24 Devils are quite clear, and once rectified the team has all the tools to be a true contender come playoff time.