It was reported yesterday night that the Vancouver Canucks are shopping a number of different forwards. A name that was brought up and linked to the New Jersey Devils was forward Conor Garland. Why would the 25-year old American fit with the Devils?
Just How Effective Has Garland Been?
From a counting statistic standpoint, Garland is having a down-year based off his production last year. He was on pace for 65-points in the abbreviated season with Arizona during the 2020-21 season. This year, however, he is only on pace for 52-points, which would still be a career-high. This figure would also be the fourth-highest on the Devils this year. So, still not a bad rate.
Even though his counting numbers may not be another eye-grabbing, his underlying numbers are solid. He leads the Vancouver Canucks in total goals above replacement (GAR) with a worth of 10.6. The next closest is Quinn Hughes, Tanner Pearson, and J.T. Miller with ratings of 5.9, 5.5, and 5.2, respectively. Worth pointing out, Elias Peterson is fifth on the Canucks with a rating of 3.0. Additionally, Garland’s 10.6 total ranks 28th of 818 total NHL skaters this season.
Furthermore, as the above chart indicates, he ranks in the league’s 78th percentile offensively and 87th percentile defensively, each utilizing GAR statistics. Garland is a 200-foot player who can do a little bit of everything.
Having solid underlying statistics is not a new thing for Garland. From 2019-2021 he ranks in the league’s 74th percentile offensively and 62nd percentile defensively, once again utilizing GAR statistics. Since he broke into the league during the 2018-19 season with the Arizona Coyotes, Garland has been a great driver of possession. There is a reason why he typically grades out as one of the best on his team in these areas on a nightly basis.
Contract Situation
Garland was just traded last July in a massive deal between the Coyotes and Canucks. As a pending restricted free agent, the Canucks signed him to a five-year, $24,750,000 ($4,950,000 per year) deal. He will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025-26 season.
Based off his production so far this season, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic, have Garland’s current market value at a staggering $8,300,000. This is a surplus value of $3,350,000 as the deal currently stands. Now, that number is going to fluctuate based off Garland’s play. But, at 25-years old he is right on the cusp of his prime, and will hopefully continue to get better.
What Will It Take?
Gauging trade value and possible trades for a player is always a tricky exercise. Especially for a player that is a part of organization that just experienced some changes. Nonetheless, let’s take a crack at it.
Based off Garland’s counting statistics his value may be tamed a bit. At face value, his numbers do not necessarily match up with the contract he currently has. If this is how Canucks’ leadership views it, the Devils and other possible suitors will surely be ecstatic. As the above shows, Garland is a much better player than his 0.63 point-per-game pace shows.
Pavel Zacha? Ty Smith?
So, what assets form the Devils may get a deal done? Pavel Zacha is a pending restricted free agent, who, after having a career-year, is struggling mightily this season. Both the Devils and Zacha would benefit from a change of scenery for the former sixth overall pick. Let’s say the Devils convince the Canucks to give Zacha a shot to figure it out in Vancouver, as given his age, he can still fit into their perceived rebuild.
Another name, and one mentioned by Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Sun, is second-year defenseman Ty Smith. Smith is having a very poor season, this coming after a rookie year that saw him struggle immensely defensively, but got the benefit of the doubt by many because of his offensive season. This season, he is struggling immensely defensively (once again) and his offensive game has taken a large step back.
At this point it is unclear if Ty Smith is going to be able to figure it out. Would, like a dealing Zacha, trading Smith figuratively, “kill two birds with one stone?” Smith is certainly the more enticing trade piece than Zacha is, would he still interest Vancouver despite the poorest season?
Would Smith and a second-round pick be enough to get the job done? If that is not enough, New Jersey can also add one of their many fringe-NHL-level prospects who still have possible NHL pedigree. Example being a Nolan Foote or a Marien Studenic.
Would a package of Zacha and two draft picks – a third and a fourth-round selection be enough? Boy, would that be a great deal for New Jersey. If not, would a deal compromised of Zacha, a third-round pick, and Nolan Foote get the job done? Or is that too much? We may never know.
Do Not Include Damon Severson
One aspect that should be known is the Devils should not include Damon Severson in any trade for Garland. Severson is a name also mentioned in the above article including Smith. Also one that Vancouver would all but certainly covet as they recently hired former Devils’ analysts and analytics-guru Rachel Doerrie to a front office analytics role.
Trading your team’s best all-around defenseman would put New Jersey back, this despite trading for a top-six forward in Garland. A very good, top-four, minutes-eating defenseman is much harder to come by than a top-six forward.
Devils’ Lineup Implications
Let’s just say general manager Tom Fitzgerald pulls off another solid move and brings the Boston native to New Jersey. How would this set their forward group up for the following season?
| Tomas Tatar | Jack Hughes | Alexander Holtz |
| Yegor Sharangovich | Nico Hischier | Jesper Bratt |
| Andreas Johnsson | Dawson Mercer | Conor Garland |
| Miles Wood | Michael McLeod | Nathan Bastian |
Trading for Garland gives the New Jersey Devils an all but set forward group going into the 2022-23 season. In doing so, it would most likely not cost any worthwhile assets, and may “kill two birds with one stone,” if general manager Tom Fitzgerald is able to move the struggling Zacha. Add a reliable goaltender, and you have a recipe for success going into next season.
Statistics courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com.