After a very encouraging victory against the Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday, the New Jersey Devils will look to knock off another Metropolitan Division rival in a clash of two teams fighting for the same playoff positioning.
The Devils (34-25-6) currently sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division, six points back of Carolina for second place and six points up on the current playoff cut line. Their opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets (31-24-8), occupy the final wild card position in the Eastern Conference, four points back of New Jersey for third place in the division.
Match Overview
The Devils ended their three game losing skid last time out in Philadelphia on Sunday. With the victory, New Jersey is now 3-5-0 since the 4 Nations Face-off break. In that 3-1 victory over Philadelphia, it was the new additions making the biggest impacts as Cody Glass had a goal and Daniel Sprong flanked Glass and Erik Haula on the team’s best line. However, if practice on Tuesday morning is any indication, appears Sprong will be removed from the lineup in favor of a return by Paul Cotter, who was a healthy scratch last game.
After Jake Allen got the win on Sunday, it is likely the Devils go back to Jacob Markstrom Tuesday night. Markstrom 0.907 save percentage (SV%) and 6.17 goals saved above expected (GSAx) according to Natural Stat Trick. Specifically, it has been a struggle for Markstrom over his last three starts, as he has allowed 12 goals on only 80 shots (0.850 SV%).
As for the Blue Jackets, Columbus is coming off a massive 7-3 victory over the New York Rangers, who closely follow the Blue Jackets in the standings, Sunday evening. Columbus came out of the gates after the 4 Nations Face-off break red hot, winning four straight. They then dropped two in a row before their four-goal beatdown of New York.
Defenseman Zach Werenski is having a mammoth season, leading Columbus in points with 68 in only 62 games. Kirill Marchenko is the only other Jacket above the 45 point threshold with 61 in 60 games. Young forward, Kent Johnson, missed time this season, but is at 44 points in only 49 games. On paper, goaltending hasn’t exactly been the Blue Jackets strong suit as both Elvis Merzlikins (0.897) and Daniil Tarasov (0.883) have save percentages below .900. However, Merzlikins has a 6.25 GSAx indicating his defense has let him down for a majority of the season. Tarasov sits with a -2.73 mark.
The Blue Jackets do have a few players on the shelf. Forwards Kevin Labanc, Sean Monahan (41 points in 41 games), and Cole Sillinger are all out with injury. Defenseman Erik Gudbranson is sidelined as well. They did, however, acquire forward Luke Kunin from the San Jose Sharks at the deadline. Kunin has 18 points this year and debuted for Columbus against the Rangers Sunday.
Projected Lineups
New Jersey Devils
Forwards
Meier-Hischier-Noesen
Haula-Glass-Bratt
Palat-Mercer-Tatar
Cotter-Lazar-Bastian
Defense
Hughes-Pesce
Dumoulin-Kovacevic
Dillon-Cholowski
Goalies
Markstrom
Allen
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forwards
Voronkov-Fantilli-Marchenko
Johnson-Jenner-Olivier
Chinakhov-Danforth-Kunin
Reese-Kuraly-Riemsdyk
Defense
Werenski-Fabbro
Mateychuk-Provorov
Christiansen-Severson
Goalies
Merzlinkis
Tarasov
Games Notes
Sustainability
The Columbus Blue Jackets have emerged as a pleasant surprise thus far this season, becoming a realistic threat to make the playoffs after several forecasted them still in a rebuild. So, just how good are they?
”PDO,” measures a team’s, “luck” by combining their save and shooting percentages and comparing them to a 1.00 baseline. Teams over 1.00 usually fall back closer to that figure as “luckier,” squads while teams below 1.00 are on the wrong side and expected to regress positively. Columbus owns the sixth-highest PDO in the league this season.
With that being said, PDO is not always a great indicator in isolation. However, further analysis into the Blue Jackets show they may indeed be over performing. Columbus owns the 28th-best Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and 26th-best expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) at all strengths this season.
How are the Blue Jackets still winning? They are capitalizing on their chances, big time. Columbus owns a the fifth-highest shooting percentage at all strengths. Additionally, in net, while the save percentage isn’t exactly sparkling, Merzlinkis has a comfortably positive GSAx, indicating he’s performed over expected.
It’ll be interesting to see how much longer the Blue Jackets can follow this blue print of winning. 63 games is a large enough sample, but all signs point toward some regression at some point.
High-Danger Ice Areas
One of the important areas of the ice in any game is the high-danger locations. Both those teams are the polar opposite when it comes to generation and performance in these areas.
The Devils generate the eighth-most high-danger shot attempts per game. On these attempts, they have the third-lowest shooting percentage. The Blue Jackets’ defense allow the fourth-most high-danger shot attempts per game. The Devils will likely be able to generate a good number of these chances, it’ll simply come down to if they’ll finish them.
On the flip side, the reason why the Blue Jackets have been able to survive their lackluster possession metrics is their ability to finish their chances, as is evident by a high-danger shooting percentage that ranks third-highest in the league. Devils goaltenders own the seventh-highest save percentage on high-danger chances this season. If they’re up for the task again, this will be key to shutting down the Columbus offense.
Where to Watch
Tuesday night’s contest at the Prudential Center can be found on MSG SportsNet. Puck drop is set for 7:00 pm ET.