Introduction
Remember Jim Carey’s immortal line from Dumb and Dumber when he told everyone: “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” It serves as motivation every time I “slide into” Dua Lipa’s direct messages on Instagram. So far I’m 0 for about 200, but I’m hoping to turn that around soon.
Well when it comes to New Jersey Devils’ hockey, the team is pretty far out of the playoff hunt now. Only the lowly Buffalo Sabres sit below them in the eight team East Division that will see the top four teams move to the postseason. The devils haven’t been officially eliminated yet, so just like Jim Carey said, are you saying there’s a chance?
One person who seems to think there is a chance is first year head coach Lindy Ruff. Ruff recently said he thinks this Devils team is “still in the race” for the playoffs. By now many Devils’ fans have thrown in the towel (or the bench, if your Robbie Ftorek) on the 56-game season and are starting to look towards the 2021 NHL draft. Stop comparing Owen Power and Luke Hughes for a few seconds, because Lindy Ruff might have a point.
Why It Might Work
With this year’s new divisions and shorter schedule, teams are only playing other teams in their own division. That means teams are only playing teams they’re battling with another playoff spot for. During normal times we look at intra-division games as meaning a little more, sometimes we call them “four-point games”. That means the result directly affects your own teams playoff implications more than other matchups. For example, if the Devils were playing the New York Rangers and both were in the playoff hunt is much more important than the Devils playing a west coast team during the same playoff hunt.
This entire season is basically those “four-point” games. If you win a game, you get points in the standings while your competitor stays idle in the same exact standing. Meanwhile, if you lose a game, that same competitor gets even more of an advantage over you. Remember. all those times you’d look at the Devils, then see if other teams won that night to see how it would affect the division? Well now every game effects the division in its entirety.
Look at Tuesday’s loss against the Boston Bruins. Had the Devils beat the Bruins in regulation (like they should have, you know) New Jersey would have been eight points out for that fourth playoff spot. Since Boston emerged victorious, the Devils now trail the fourth place Bruins by 10 points.
While ten points, or five games if you assume they’re all wins, is normally a hard hill to climb. If New Jersey can put together a three game win streak, and deny other teams in the division points, the tides can turn quickly. I’m not saying it’s easy, I’m just saying it’s easier this year than in others.
Why it Might Not Work
The NHL season has surpassed its’ halfway point with the Devils playing 34 of their 56 games. Still, they remain out of a playoff spot by double digits. At least if they had beat Boston and were in the single digits, you’d think there’s more of a chance.
It’s been done before where a team overcame a double digit deficit in points to make the playoffs. Most recently the Ottawa Senators overcame a 14 point deficit in 2014. They even knocked out the Bruins in the process.
For comparison, remember the 2018-2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues? Remember how they had the whole “last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions” narrative follow them that entire run? On January 2nd, the Blue had a record of 15–18–4 for three games under hockey-.500. As of last night, the New Jersey Devils are 13-16-5. New Jersey has the same three games under as St. Louis did, and both teams had pretty much the same points per game percentage at that point as well (45.9% for St. Louis vs. 45.5% for New Jersey).
The most telling stat of tis all is the amount of games played at that point. St. Louis had 37 games and right no New Jersey sits at 34. While that might be a confidence booster for the New Jersey Devils, it actually works against them. St. Louis still had 45 games to right their ship. New Jersey only has 22.