Tuesday, the New Jersey Devils look to avoid elimination by defeating the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 5 of their first round matchup. The Devils lost their last game at home, 5-2. The Hurricanes hold a 3-1 series lead
Match Overview
The Devils and Hurricanes have matched up quite a few times in the postseason since the Whalers moved down south in 1997. The Devils won the first series, but have not taken one since. That trend is looking like it may continue this season. The Devils haven’t been the better team this series, but they’ve certainly hung around which is an accomplishment in its own given the injuries the team is currently dealing with.
Speaking of which, we all know the Devils injuries right now. We know for certain Jack Hughes won’t play until the fall, and head coach Sheldon Keefe already said that Brendan Dillon, Luke Hughes, and Johnathan Kovacevic will all be out once again for Game 5.
The Hurricanes are fully healthy, with all of their regulars set to play aside from Frederick Anderson who Carolina has no update on. If Anderson’s round one is over he ends it with a .936 save percentage (sv%) and a 6.89 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Lines and Pairings
Devils
Forwards
Palat-Hischier-Meier
Haula-Mercer-Bratt
Cotter-Glass-Noesen
Tatar-Dowling-Bastian
Defense
Dumoulin-Pesce
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Cholowski-Nemec
Goalies
Markstrom
Allen
Hurricanes
Forwards
Svechnikov-Aho-Blake
Hall-Kotkaniemi-Jarvis
Martinook-Staal-Carrier
Stankoven-Jankowski-Robinson
Defense
Slavin-Burns
Orlov-Chatfield
Gostisbehere-Walker
Goalies
Kochetkov
Martin
Keys to the Game
Winning the Expected Battles
Going into this series the consensus among Devils fans was that Carolina would most likely dominate at five-on-five, but that the Devils could maybe sneak away with a win if they could have the upper hand in special teams and goaltending. That has certainly not been the case. While the Devils have gotten good goaltending from Jacob Markstrom, who has 3.87 GSAx, Frederik Andersen and Pytor Kochetkov have combined GSAx of 6.94.
In terms of special teams, the Devils had the best combined power play and penalty kill in the regular season. In the postseason? Dead last. The Devils have a penalty kill at 69.2% which is 10th of 16 teams, but their power play is last at 0%. They are the only team who has not scored a power play goal in the playoffs.
The frustrating part about all of this is that the Devils have nearly matched Carolina at five-on-five. The Hurricanes have 10.9 expected goals for (xGF) and the Devils have 10.38 xGF. Over the last three games, the Devils have actually out-chanced Carolina at five-on-five with the xGF being 8.47-8.16 in their favor.
If you had given a Devils fan that number before the playoffs they would have probably told you the Devils would be in the series if not leading. Things have unfortunately not gone that way.
Lack of Depth
While the Devils stars have shown up for this series, unsurprisingly, their depth has not. There has been a total of one goal that one of Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, or Timo Meier have not factored into. That goal was Simon Nemec’s overtime winning goal in game three. If the Devils are going to come back in this series, they will need more depth to come through. Not just in big ways, just in any way and it would greatly help this team’s chances.
Where to Watch
The Game 5 matchup is set for a 7:30 pm ET puck drop in Raleigh. The contest can be seen on TBS.