After two full days off, the New Jersey Devils are set to return to action against the Montreal Canadiens Saturday night. The Devils own a 27-17-6 record, good for third in the Metropolitan Division. Meanwhile, Montreal sits at 24-10-4, which is good for sixth in the Atlantic Division. Thanks to a stretch of winning hockey, the Canadiens are only one point back in the Eastern Conference wild card race.
Match Overview
The Devils are looking to get back to some consistent hockey after a 2-6-3 stretch. Coming off a 5-1 thrashing of the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, New Jersey will hope to begin a new winning streak in Montreal Saturday night.
They’ll have to do so without their star goaltender Jacob Markström. According to Elliotte Friedman of SportsNet, Markström is expected to miss four-to-six weeks with a MCL sprain. Given how he was helped off the ice, this timeline is extremely encouraging. In his place, Jake Allen will likely be the every night goalie. Allen is having an underrated season, coming off a spotless 16-for-16 save performance in relief against Boston. On the year, Allen sports an above-average .904 save percentage and a 5.92 goals save above expected. That figure ranks 23rd among 87 goaltenders this year according to Evolving Hockey.
Elsewhere, Erik Haula returned to practice, however, he did not travel with the team as he is working his way back from an ankle injury. Ondrej Palat, who missed the Boston game due to illness, projects to be back. Lastly, Jack Hughes, who needed stitches in his finger during the Boston game, and did not practice on Friday, is expected to play.
Meanwhile, Montreal has really caught fire as of late. Since dropping to 11-16-3 back on December 14, the Canadiens have gone 13-4-1 rocketing themselves into the thick of the Eastern Conference wild card race. They are though coming off a loss on Thursday night to Detroit.
Each of Montreal’s top four point scorers this season are under the age of 25. Nick Suzuki leads the way (47 points in 48 games) while Cole Caufield (44 points), Lane Hutson (39 points), and Juraj Slafkovsky (26 points) follow him. In net, Sam Montembeault has gotten the bulk of starts, but it’s Jakub Dobeš who is the projected starter. Dobeš has only five appearances for Montreal but a .941 save percentage.
As far as injuries go, Montreal is close to a full bill of health. Forward Emil Heineman is the only notable current absence. He has not played since January 11. The rookie has 17 points in 41 games so far this year.
Projected Lineups
Devils
Forwards
Palat – Hughes – Cotter
Noesen – Hischier – Bratt
Meier – Dowling – Mercer
Tatar – Lazar – Bastian
Defensemen
Dillon – Hamilton
Siegenthaler – Kovacevic
Hughes – Pesce
Goalies
Allen
Poulter
Canadiens
Forwards
Caufield – Suzuki – Slafkovsky
Laine – Dach – Newhook
Anderson – Dvorak – Gallagher
Pezzetta – Evans – Armia
Defensemen
Hutson – Matheson
Guile – Carrier
Xhekaj – Savard
Goalies
Montembeault
Dobes
What to Watch
How Legit Is Montreal’s Hot Stretch?
Over the Canadien’s NHL-best 13-4-1 run, the Devils own a 7-7-3 record. Interestingly, at five-on-five, the Devils’ underlying metrics are better than Montreal’s over that time. Montreal’s 49.52 expected goals-for percentage ranks 16th while New Jersey comes in at No. 9. Funny enough, over that time, each team ranks 15th and 16th, respectively, in total power play goals as well. So, what is the difference, and why has Montreal been so hot?
At all strengths, Montreal’s “PDO” ranks second in the league over that time. PDO is a simple measurement of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. That sum is then multiplied by 10. Any number over 1.000 indicates regression may be on the horizon and that said team is getting some “good luck.” Anything below that signifies a team may be experiencing some “bad luck” and positive regression is to come. Montreal’s number of 1.031 is very high as their finishing over expected and getting very strong goaltending.
Does this mean regression will always happen? No, not always. Bad teams will typically have lower PDOs and good teams higher. However, in smaller samples, it can be used as a decent indicator going forward. Especially when Montreal spent a majority of the season as a below-average team.
The Third Line
Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe put the line in a blender of sorts and rolled with a trio of Timo Meier, Justin Dowling, and Dawson Mercer in the team’s 5-1 defeat of Boston on Wednesday. In that game, the Meier, Dowling, Mercer trio combined for two goals. The trio also led the team in expected goals-for percentage at 89.20. While on the ice together, they outshot Boston 7-1 and held the edge in high-danger chances at 3-0. They had a terrific night.
With that line projected to get another look against Montreal, and the Canadiens not exactly the best at suppressing the opposition, this new trio should get another chance to shine.
Where to Watch
Saturday night’s puck drop is slated for 7:00 pm ET at the Bell Centre in Montreal. The game can be seen on. MSG SportsNet 2 or nationally on NHL Network.