This Saturday, NHL teams will need to submit their protection lists, just four days ahead of the July 21st NHL Expansion Draft. So, based on the guidelines set forth by the NHL, who should General Manager Tom Fitzgerald and the New Jersey Devils protect?
The Rules
Options for Protection
The rules for the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft are pretty simple. Teams around the league have two options in protecting their own players. The first being the “7-3-1” route, and the second being the “8-1” option. Basically, teams can either protect a combination of seven of their own eligible forwards, three of their own eligible defensemen, and one of their own eligible goaltenders (“7-3-1”) or eight of their own eligible skaters and one of their own eligible goaltenders (“8-1”).
Exempt Players
There are also some other rules worth noting. Teams must protect players who have “no movement clauses,” unless that player waives it, as Erik Johnson of the Colorado Avalanche and Jeff Skinner of the Buffalo Sabres did earlier in the week.
Any first and second-year professionals (like Jack Hughes and Ty Smith), as well as unsigned draft choices are exempt from the draft (examples being Ethan Edwards and Jaromir Pytlik).
Also, players who are deemed to have suffered potential career-ending injuries (missed 60-plus consecutive games) are exempt. A full list of these players can be found here.
Exposure Requirements
The next important aspect of the draft is the exposure requirements. Each team is required to expose two forwards, one defenseman, and one goaltender. In order to qualify as exposable, each position group player must have the following characteristics:
The forward and defenseman must be under contract for the 2021-22 season and have played 27 or more games in the NHL last season or have played 54 or more NHL games in the last two seasons combined. The goaltender must be under contract in 2021-22 or have a contract that is expiring and the player is currently considered a restricted free agent.
New Jersey Devils Exempt and Eligible Players
So, with these rules in mind, let’s take a look at how the New Jersey Devils should fill out their protection list. To set the stage, it would be helpful to outline those Devils who are ineligible and those who would need protection.
Exempt Players
Forwards: Jesper Boqvist, Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer, Tyce Thompson, Nolan Foote, Fabian Zetterlund, Mason Jobst, Nate Schnarr, Aarne Talvitie, Graeme Clarke, Alexander Holtz
Defensemen: Reilly Walsh, Ty Smith, Kevin Bahl, Nikita Okhotiuk, Jeremy Groleau, Michael Vukojevic
Goaltenders: Gilles Senn, Akira Schmid, Nico Daws
Eligible Players
Forwards (15): Nico Hischier, Andreas Johnsson, Miles Wood, Jesper Bratt, Pavel Pavel Zacha, Nick Merkley*, Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen*, Marian Studenic*, Yegor Sharangovich*, Ben Street^, Brandon Gignac*, Nathan Bastian, Brett Seney^, AJ Greer*
Defenseman (11): P.K. Subban, Ryan Murray^, Damon Severson, Will Butcher, Ryan Graves, Connor Carrick^, Jonas Siegenthaler, David Quenneville*, Matt Tennyson^, Josh Jacobs^, Colton White, Colby Sissons*
Goaltenders (4): Mackenzie Blackwood, Aaron Dell^, Evan Cormier*, Scott Wedgewood
Note: ^ – designates a player that is a pending unrestricted free agent, * – designated a player that is a pending restricted free agent.
Who Should The Devils Protect?
In most cases, teams will exercise the “7-3-1” option mentioned above. In the Devil’s case, this should be no different. So, which seven forwards, three defenseman, and one goaltender should the team protect?
Forwards
The Locks
Of the 15 above eligible forwards, there are five that should be essentially locked in to being protected. These include captain Nico Hischier, Miles Wood, Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha, and break-out rookie Yegor Sharangovich. So, this leaves only two slots for the remaining 10 forwards.
The Bubble
Of these remaining 10, the skaters that it will most likely come down to are Andreas Johnsson, Nick Merkley, Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen, Marian Studenic, and Nathan Bastian. So, we have narrowed our list down to seven, which two should make the cut?
Bubble Players That Should Make The Cut
Andreas Johnsson
Andreas Johnsson should be protected by the New Jersey Devils. Johnsson is more than not the most highly-debated Devil in terms of whether he should be protected or not. Unfortunately, last year’s extremely unlucky and down season has skewed how individuals view him.
Johnsson, over a pro-rated 82-game season, has totals of 48 points and 40 under his belt in Toronto. This past season, he regressed on a bad hockey team while shooting a career-low 7.7 percent. This number is well below league average and one that will surely grow closer to his career average of 12.0. As you can see above, analytically he had a decent season, especially defensively.
Unprotecting Johnsson because of one poor season would be a reckless move by Fitzgerald. It would also open another hole the team would have to fill if Seattle were to wisely take him.
Janne Kuokkanen
Janne Kuokkanen was another pleasant rookie surprise last season. In 50 games, he scored 25 points. In a normal 82-game season he would have been on pace for 13 goals, 28 assists, and 41 points while only averaging 14:46 of ice time. He also ranked eighth among Devils’ skaters in xGAR and ninth in xWAR.
At the end of the day, it came down to Kuokkanen or Nathan Bastian. Due ceiling to projection and player-type, Kuokkanen should get the nod. Now, choosing Bastian over Kuokkanen would not be a poor move. As analytically, Bastian was not too far off of his teammate (as evident via the chart above). But, Kuokkanen ultimately should be the choice.
Also, worth discussing is Michael McLeod. He was a nice surprise for the Devils this season, but, it seems his performance may have been overstated by Devils’s fans. Per the player card above, he still put up a season that as a whole, was below the average NHLer.
Also, in comparison to say a Janne Kuokkanen, McLeod (at this point in his career) does not seem to have all that high of a ceiling. Already 23-years old, what you saw last season is probably what you’re going to get. Which, at the end of the day, does not seem protection-worthy.
Defense
The Locks
Likely, only three defensemen will be protected by the New Jersey Devils. The only “lock” designations that can be given out is to Damon Severson as well as newly acquired defenseman Ryan Graves. Each are the best defenseman the Devils have, exposing either would be a near-fireable offense.
The Final Spot
The final spot comes down to the following: P.K. Subban, Will Butcher, Ryan Murray, and Jonas Siegenthaler. Of these four, Murray is an unrestricted free agent, but can still be protected if the Devils so chose. However, this seems unlikely so it eliminates him as an option. Of Subban, Butcher, and Siegenthaler, it seems it will be Siegenthaler who gets the nod.
Jonas Siegenthaler was just acquired before this past season’s NHL trade deadline. He was then re-signed to a two-year contract. During his short tenure with the team — limited to eight games due to COVID-19 — he showed signs of a solid, bottom-pairing defensive-first defenseman. Given all this, it seems very unlikely that he would be exposed. This means that Subban and Butcher are likely the odd men out.
Despite struggles in year one with the team, Subban settled in and did okay for the Devils last season. He also serves as a valuable veteran presence in the locker room that eats some heavy minutes. Losing Subban would not only open a hole in the team’s top-four that would need to be addressed, but also result in New Jersey being close to $20,000,000 shy of the salary cap floor. Would this be a blessing in disguise if Seattle takes him? Would it force general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s hand in spending money to make the team better?
Worth noting, a report came out explaining how Seattle seems to favor, “financial flexibility,” so it seems they are unlikely to take any large contracts. Subban’s current deal is worth $9,000,000 and is set to expire after this season. Does this scare Seattle away from Subban? The report makes it seem like this would be the case. However, Subban does only have one year on his deal left, and would help Seattle hit the salary cap floor. We will just have to wait and see.
As for Will Butcher, the writing has been on the wall for a while now. It was clear leadership and the coaching staff do not value him all that highly. As evident by the numerous times he was a healthy scratch this year..
Goaltenders
This is the most simple one. Mackenzie Blackwood will be the Devil’s lone protected goaltender.
Conclusion
The NHL offseason is here, and is set to get going in rapid fashion. As mentioned above, on Saturday we will see which players teams around the league elect to protect. Of course, all Devils’ fans rightfully care about is who gets mark as off limits on their team. Well, the below players are the ones that the Devils should go ahead and ensure the Seattle Kraken cannot take off the team’s hands:
Forwards (7):
Nico Hischier, Andreas Johnsson, Miles Wood, Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha, Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich
Defenseman (3):
Damon Severson, Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltender (1):
Mackenzie Blackwood
Players That Meet Exposure Requirement (only requires 2 F / 1 D / 1 G): Michael McLeod (F), Nathan Bastian (F), P.K. Subban (D), Will Butcher (D), Evan Cormier (G)*
Other Exposed Players: Nick Merkley* (F), Marian Studenic* (F), Ben Street^ (F), Brandon Gignac* (F), Brett Seney^ (F), AJ Greer* (F), Ryan Murray^ (D), Connor Carrick^ (D), David Quenneville* (D), Matt Tennyson^ (D), Josh Jacobs^ (D), Colton White (D), Colby Sissons* (D), Aaron Dell^ (G), Scott Wedgewood (G)
Note: ^ – designates a player that is a pending unrestricted free agent, * – designated a player that is a pending restricted free agent.
All charts and advanced analytics via Evolving-Hockey.com. All Expansion Draft rules via CapFriendly.com.