Introduction
Let me preface this by saying, given Damon Severson’s traditional statistics, a Norris Trophy unfortunately seems unlikely. However, that should not discredit how stellar of a season he has had. Those who do not value individual traditional statistics as much are sure to agree. Nonetheless, Severson should currently be in the talks as an early-season Norris Trophy candidate.
Damon Severson has been the Devil’s best defenseman for years. It is baffling Devils fans and others around the league don’t give the seven-year professional the respect he deserves.
Unfortunately, it seems the terrible plus-minus argument has soured fans. Severson has had seasons of minus-31, minus-27, and minus-20, but that is what happens when you regularly face top-tier competition on a bad hockey team. Additionally, whenever Severson makes a mistake—which is rare—it always seems to be costly, one example being the own goals he has unfortunately/accidentally created over the years. This cannot skew opinions on Severson, who is almost always playing like an elite two-way defenseman.
Nonetheless, let’s take a look at Severson’s statistics. It’ll become apparent Severson has not only been the Devil’s best defenseman for quite some time, but is also playing at a Norris Trophy-caliber level.
The Statistics
The Offense
The New Jersey Devils have struggled with getting scoring from the team’s defensemen for years. However, Damon Severson has led Devil’s defenseman in scoring four of the past six seasons. His career 31-point per season average is nothing to write home about, but that number has improved to nearly 40 points over the past 2-3 seasons.
This growth is evident again this year, despite not leading the team’s defensemen in scoring (thanks to the breakout season of rookie Ty Smith). Severson is on pace to score 28 points over the 56-game season. This is a 41-point pace over 82 games, which would be a career-high. Coincidentally, in the season he is playing the best defensively, his offense is also shining.
From an advanced metrics perspective, from 2018-2020, Severson’s offensive efficiency ranks in the 71st percentile league-wide. As the chart above shows (Figure 1), his expected goals above replacement (xGAR) is well above the league average. His actual goals above replacement (GAR) is below league average, which means Severson has been a bit unlucky while on the ice offensively.
The tweet above furthers this idea of misfortune experienced by Severson in 2021. Basically, when Damon Severson is on the ice, his teammates aren’t finishing the solid chances he’s creating.
As mentioned, this season specifically, Severson’s offensive numbers also show he is excelling in the offensive zone, but not seeing results. His expected goals-for per 60 (xGF/60) and Corsi-for per 60 (CF/60) are both top-tier (see Figure 2 above). However, his actual production in these areas are not on par with the underlying figures. Meaning, Severson has not been receiving any “puck-luck.” Nonetheless, when he is on the ice the Devils are better off offensively.
The Defense
This is where Severson really shines. Damon Severson has always been a solid shot suppressor at five-on-five. From 2018-2020, he ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in important defensive metrics (see Figure 1 above). Specifically, over the past three seasons, Severson’s Corsi-against per 60 is almost one-and-a-half standard deviations higher than the league average (see below Figure 3). His expected goals against per 60 is also above league average (see below Figure 3). This clarifies how stellar Severson’s play has been in his own end.
This year, in particular, Severson has been a monster in his own end. As the above chart depicts, his defensive metrics are one of the best in the league (Figure 2). What’s especially impressive is Severson playing nearly 24 minutes a night against the other team’s best forwards. Additionally, he’s playing alongside a rookie defenseman (Ty Smith) who is still acclimating defensively at the NHL level.
Another important aspect of any defenseman’s game is entries and exits. The chart above is three years-worth of data showing how effective Severson has been at controlled entries into the offensive zone, controlled exits out of his own zone, and preventing opponents from cleanly gaining his zone (Figure 4). Each are league-wide percentile ranking, and as you can see, Severson posts high marks in every single category. This solid performance in these areas, like the other aspects of his game, have been exemplified even further this year.
How Does Severson Stack Up League-Wide?
The above chart brings together how stellar of a season Damon Severson is having (Figure 5). Through 13 games, he’s been one of the best defensemen in the NHL as his play across all parts of the game have been exemplary (Figure 5).
| Statistic | Figure | League Ranking |
| Corsi For Percentage | 58.90 | 3rd |
| Corsi Against per 60 | 38.21 | 1st |
| Expected Goals For Percentage | 57.86 | 14th |
| Expected Goals For per 60 | 2.48 | 31st |
| Expected Goals Against per 60 | 1.81 | 29th |
Above is where Damon Severson ranks league-wide (as of February 24th) in several important categories (Figure 6). These are all five-on-five statistics of defensemen who have played at least 100 total minutes at this strength. In total, 204 defensemen qualify. As you can see, he ranks near the best in the league (Figure 6).
The “Damon Severson Effect”
Additionally, as mentioned earlier, Severson is paired with Ty Smith. He has also played with Dmitry Kulikov for a good portion of the season. Below are rankings of how well those two pairings rank league-wide (Figure 7). The chart below features five-on-five statistics of defensemen who have played at least 90 minutes at this strength. In total, 76 pairings qualify. To put that in perspective, teams roll with three pairings on a nightly basis, 31 teams total 93 pairings.
| Statistic | Damon Severson & Ty Smith | Damon Severson & Dmitry Kulikov | League Rankings (pair one & pair two) |
| Corsi For Percentage | 63.80 | 59.22 | 1st & 2nd |
| Expected Goals For Percentage | 65.65 | 62.49 | 1st & 3rd |
Damon Severson was arguably part of the two best defensive pairings in the NHL. Also worth mentioning, ever since Severson and Kulikov were separated, Kulikov’s numbers have decreased slightly. Likewise, before Smith was with Severson, his underlying numbers were poor. The “Damon Severson effect” is in full swing.
| Player | CF% | xGF% | xGAR | Points/Games Played |
| Damon Severson (NJ) | 58.90 | 57.86 | 2.4 | 7 pts in 14 GP |
| Cale Makar (COL) | 60.10 | 62.74 | 5.4 | 12 pts in 13 GP |
| Alex Pietrangelo (LV) | 50.22 | 48.53 | -0.6 | 6 pts in 13 GP |
| Roman Josi (NSH) | 56.57 | 56.83 | 1.2 | 10 pts in 18 GP |
| Victor Hedman (TBL) | 51.42 | 49.32 | 2.6 | 17 pts in 16 GP |
| Kris Letang (PIT) | 52.17 | 49.32 | 0.4 | 10 pts in 16 GP |
Against the Leagues’-Best?
Above is a table organized with those who are among the best-of-the-best when it comes to NHL defensemen (Figure 8). All of these statistics are even strength numbers as of February 24th.
The chaty shows Damon Severson is on par, or even outperforming the likes of Alex Pietrangelo, Victor Hedman, and Kris Letang (Figure 8), all of whom are among usual front-runners for the Norris Trophy.
Conclusion: Damon Severson is Elite
The above is a lot to digest. Especially to those who are not too familiar with advanced statistics. However, the bottom-line is Damon Severson has been terrific. Whether or not you completely understand the data above, the rankings of these said important numbers are all among the league’s best.
Additionally, if you are the conventional eye-test type of hockey analysis, you can see how well Severson has been, not to mention Severson has been part of two of the league’s best defensive pairings. This is an extremely impressive feat. What may be the most eye-opening of this all is the fact Severson is performing below what his expected statistics indicate. This is evident in an almost three-point differential in his GAR and xGAR (which is a huge discrepancy). As well as the above tweet showing how Severson’s teammates are not finishing chances he creates for them.
It has been an absolutely wonderful start to the season for Severson. Despite getting a ton of unwarranted hate (for little reason) from Devils fans, it’s time to respect how good of a player he really is. This respect shouldn’t only be given by fans but the entire league.
Damon Severson is elite, and should be at the top of everyone’s list for the Norris Trophy so far this season. Now, it is only 14-games into the season and a Norris Trophy takes a full season of work, but given the upward trajectory of his career, it’s unlikely this type of elite play gets that degree of recognition.
Notes:
Advanced statics and graphs courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, @JFreshHockey on Twitter, @CJTDevil on Twitter, and @ShutDownLine on Twitter.
If you have any questions on any of the advanced statistics in this article, eo not be afraid to reach out to either Devils Army Blog on Twitter/Facebook or me specifically on Twitter (@jvillani08).