Evaluating The Center Free Agent Market

Vincent Trocheck has always been a high quality player. (Photo via NHL.com)

With the conclusion of the NHL Draft, comes one day closer the opening of NHL free agency. NHL free agency is slated to get underway Tuesday at 12:00 P.M. ET. With $25,334,167 in projected cap space (per CapFriendly), the New Jersey Devils are surely going to be active.

An interesting position group in the Devils’ organization is center. The team is seemingly set for the next five-plus years with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. However, how about after them?

New Jersey could technically role with Dawson Mercer on line three and Jesper Boqvist or Michael McLeod on line four. However, it is also likely New Jersey wants to keep Mercer on the wing as he had success in this slot last season If they do so, there would be a glaring hole on the third line in the center position. So, of the pending free agents, who can the Devils turn to to fulfill that role?

Dylan Strome settled in nicely as a Chicago Blackhawk. (Photo via NHL)

Best Options

Dylan Strome

It was reported that the Chicago Blackhawks are likely to non-tender Dylan Strome. In what is a very surprising move, the only 25-year-old had the second-best season of his career last season. He totaled 48 points (22 goals) in 69 games. This after an underwhelming 2020-21 season where he had only 17 points in 40 games.

Strome’s analytical profile shows a decent two-way center who leans more offensively. His offensive on-ice impacts the last three seasons have been tremendous. Defensively, not too shabby either, as he ranks in the league’s 57th percentile on this end of the ice per Evolving Hockey. This largely due to his positive impact on the penalty kill.

TOI (5v5)CF%xGF%
With Patrick Kane1150:1248.4547.91
Without Patrick Kane1036:4947.4448.80
Key: TOI – time on ice, ‘5v5’ – five-on-five, CF% – Corsi-for percentage, xGF% – expected goals-for percentage (Statistics via Natural Stat Trick)

It is worth noting, over the last three seasons Strome has played roughly 53% of his five-on-five ice time with Patrick Kane. As the above table describes, his possession numbers, with and without Kane, are actually pretty similar. Regardless, Strome has emerged as a nice bottom-six, two-way presence. One that would fit in nicely on the Devils’ third line.

He’s certainly in line for a pay raise, coming off a two-year, $3,000,000 per season deal. How much of a raise is the real question. If New Jersey can get him for under the $4,250,000 mark, they should be all over it. Is that likely? Only time will tell.

Vincent Trocheck

The 28-year-old Pittsburgh native had one of the best seasons of his career last year with Carolina. He totaled 51 points (20 goals) in 81 games. Throughout his career, Trocheck has usually been good for around the 40-plus point mark, tallying more than 34 in every season but his first two.

His analytical makeup is one of an offensive center who excels at driving play. He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in terms of on-ice offensive impact per Evolving Hockey. Trocheck excels at both five-on-five and on the power play. His defensive metrics are about league average, so he is certainly not a liability there.

The above player card is courtesy of the following article written by Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic.

Trocheck is coming off a six-year, $4,750,000 per season contract. Evolving Hockey is currently projecting him at an extremely rich four-year deal worth $6,000,000 per season. This seems a bit high for a middle-six center, and a price tag New Jersey would be wise to pass on. However, if the Devils can bring him in for a deal around $4,500,000 annually to serve on that third line, they would be a lot better for it. Realistic? Probably not, but only time will tell.

Victor Rask is an intriguing option. (Photo Credits: Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/NHLI via Getty Images)

Depth Options

Victor Rask

Rask probably makes the most sense given what he will most likely cost and his overall production. The 29-year-old had a nice start to his career with seasons of 33, 48, and 45 points. However, he fell on some rough times since then. As he has only registered 57 points in 144 games the past three seasons.

Rask’s underlying on-ice impacts paint an interesting picture. One that, if a player who only played an average of 12:12 of ice time last season, got more playing time may be a nice third line presence and return to the output he had his first three seasons. Over the past three years, Rask’s one-ice impacts rank in the league’s 58th percentile offensively and 83rd percentile defensively, per Evolving Hockey.

Unlike Strome and Trocheck, Rask would come at a very small price tag. His price tag would also give him a chance to provide some real nice value. Rask, despite a bump in play last year, would probably be an upgrade over Boqvist and would certainly be an upgrade over McLeod.

Johan Larsson

The 29-year-old Larsson has been one of the more underrated depth players in the league over the past few seasons. He has spent time with three different teams in the period of two seasons. Over this span, he has totaled an underwhelming 56 points in 95 games playing around 14:00 minutes a night. Though, his output of 21 points in 43 games last season is the highest 82-game scoring pace he has scored on in his career.

The above player card encompasses Johan Larsson’s on-ice impacts over the past three seasons. (player card via Evolving Hockey)

As the traditional numbers may indicate, Larsson is known more for his defensive game. Over the past three seasons, he ranks in the league’s 93rd percentile defensively. He does a terrific job helping his team suppress opponent’s chances. A very underrated defensive player.

Larsson would come extremely cheap, likely less than a $1,250,000 annually. However, he is a better fit to serve a fourth line role given his lack of scoring throughout his career. He would certainly be an upgrade over Michael McLeod if New Jersey wanted to stick with Jesper Boqvist on line three.

Defensive Depth

The trio of Nico Sturm, Curtis Lazar, and Riley Nash all have track records of very strong defensive players who can serve in any team’s bottom-six. Each would also cost next to nothing and provide an immediate upgrade over Michael McLeod, and maybe even Jesper Boqvist. Though, each have showed to be pretty limited offensively, which may deter the Devils away from these strictly depth options.

Nazem Kadri is one of the top players on the market this offseason. (Photo via Getty Images)

Other Options

Below is a list of the other free agent centers. These guys are likely not going to be on the Devils’ radar for a plethora of different reasons:

Very Strong Players, Too Expensive for Role:

  • Name Kadri
    • You can read more about Kadri right here.
  • Patrice Bergeron
  • Evgeni Malkin
  • Claude Giroux
  • Ryan Strome

Good On-Ice Impacts, Either Too Old or Would be a Lateral Move:

  • Sam Gagner
  • Derek Stepan
  • Darren Helm
  • Tyler Bozak
  • Colin Blackwell
  • Gerald Mayhew
  • Noel Accari
  • Dakota Joshua
  • Austin Czarnik

Too Old:

  • Joe Thorton
  • Brad Richarson
  • Carter Rowney
Marcus Johansson is a former New Jersey Devil. (Photo via Getty Images)

Poor On-Ice Impacts:

  • Marcus Johansson
  • Chris Tierny
  • Nick Bjugstad
  • Cody Eakin
  • Laurent Dauphin
  • Vinni Letteieri
  • Gregg McKegg
  • Kyle Turris
  • John Hayden
  • Nate Thompson

All of our offseason content can be found right here.

Note, on-ice impact percentiles via Evolving Hockey.

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