Last week, we took a look at the unrestricted free agents (UFAs) the New Jersey Devils need to address. In addition to those nine UFAs, as mentioned in our brief offseason primer, the team also has 14 restricted free agents (RFAs) within the organization.
Unlike the UFAs, most of the RFAs will likely be back with the team. With that being said, what may the new contracts for each look like? Are there any that actually may not return? Who are those 14 RFAs?
The Rules and Definitions
As a refresher, below are some important definitions as well as ins and outs of restricted free agency:
- Restricted Free Agent (RFA): players who are free agents, without a contract, but still under team control.
- 10.2(c) Player: a player who is only eligible to negotiate and sign a contract with the club that holds their signing rights. They are ineligible to negotiate a contract (offer sheet) with any other club. They are also ineligible for arbitration. If the player does not receive a qualifying offer by June 25th at 5:00 pm ET, they immediately become a UFA.
- Qualifying Offer: when extended, it is a standard one-year contract which may be subject to arbitration. It gives the incumbent club the ability to match any offer sheet the RFA may receive when free agency opens.
- If the player rejects the qualifying offer, they remain an RFA and their rights are retained by the team.
- If a player does not receive a qualifying offer, the player becomes a UFA.
- if the player accepts the qualifying offer, they will in essence be signing a one-year contract that is calculated via the following:
- 110% of the base salary if the base salary is less than or equal to $660,000.
- 105% of the base salary if the base salary is greater than $660,000 or less than $1,000,000. However, this qualifying offer cannot exceed $1,000,000.
- 100% of the base salary if the base salary is equal to or greater than $1,000,000.
- Arbitration (Arb.): a tool available to settle some contract disputes. The player and team each propose a salary for the coming season and argue their cases at a hearing. The arbitrator, a neutral third party, then sets the player’s salary.
The Restricted Free Agents (RFAs)
Of the 14 RFAs the Devils have, eight played key roles for the team this past season. The remaining six spent the season either at the AHL or ECHL level. Also, interestingly enough, all but four of the 14 RFAs hold arbitration rights (definition above).
To address the below, the Devils will have $34,282,500 in cap space, per CapFriendly. As you can see, New Jersey will need to allocate a good chunk of that cap space to this group of players. Especially their two headliners, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier.
NHL:
- Jesper Bratt*: 82 GP, 32 G, 41 A, 73 PTS, 17:22 ATOI
- Michael McLeod*: 80 GP, 4 G, 22 A, 26 PTS, 12:15 ATOI
- Timo Meier*: 78 GP, 40 G, 26 A, 66 PTS, 19:23 ATOI (includes both SJ and NJ statistics)
- Yegor Sharangovich*: 75 GP, 13 G, 17 A, 30 PTS 14:25 ATOI
- Jesper Boqvist*: 70 GP, 10 G, 11 A, 21 PTS, 11:36 ATOI
- Nathan Bastian*: 43 GP, 6 G, 9 A, 15 PTS, 12:26 ATOI
- Kevin Bahl*: 42 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 8 PTS, 14:01 ATOI
- Mackenzie Blackwood*: 22 GP, 10-6-2 record, .893 SV%, 3.20 GAA
AHL:
- Reilly Walsh*: 71 GP, 9 G, 32 A, 41 PTS (AHL)
- Aarne Talvitie*: 58 GP, 3 G 11 A, 14 PTS (AHL)
- Jérémy Groleau: 43 GP, 2 G, 8 A, 10 PTS (AHL)
- Zack Hayes*: 43 GP, 3 G, 5 A, 8 PTS (AHL, includes games with Henderson, Chicago, and Utica)
ECHL:
- Timur Ibragimov: 53 GP, 11 G, 21 A, 32 PTS (ECHL, also played in 15 AHL games with Utica tallying six points)
- Zachary Émond: 4 GP, 3-1-0 record, .936 SV%, 2.22 GAA (ECHL)
*- denotes player has arbitration rights
The Elites
It is no secret that the main objective this offseason is for general manager Tom Fitzgerald to re-sign Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier to long-term extension. As we saw just last year with Bratt, these negotiations can be long and tedious. What can we expect in terms of new deals for each of them?
It was reported earlier this week that the Devils and Meier were expected to begin negotiations this week. Given New Jersey just acquired Meier this past season, the chances of him being in the red and black come next season seem all but certain.
As for his next deal, Evolving Hockey projects an eight-year deal worth $8.779 million. As has been alluded to in the past, the team would like to try to keep any new deals in the range of their current superstar Jack Hughes. However, given the cap has risen since the Hughes’ extension, and other extenuating circumstances, that goal seems unrealistic and unattainable.
As for his play, despite a slow postseason in terms of point and goal output, Meier had terrific on-ice impacts (third on the team in Corsi-for percentage and fifth in expected goals-for percentage). That was the case in the regular season as well after coming over from San Jose.
If the Devils can get Meier below the $9-million mark over eight seasons, that would be an ideal value for the 26-year-old winger. Worth noting, if Meier plays next season after accepting a qualifying offer he would be owed $10 million.
Bratt is the more interesting case. After a reportedly tumultuous negotiations last offseason, the team and Bratt decided on an one-year deal worth $5.45 million. The 24-year-old turned in another very successful season and is do another pay raise. Evolving Hockey projects a five-year deal worth $6 million.
It’s really hard to gauge what Bratt will command, especially in regards to the term. A big issue last year seemingly was Bratt and his agent pursuing a short-term deal so he can hit the open market sooner and cash in. If that is the case again, an eight-year deal like the one Meier is likely to receive may be out of the question. Coincidentally enough, Pierre LeBrun of the Athletic reported an eight-year deal was offered by the Devils recently.
Regardless, despite some faint trade chatter, expect Bratt back next year. As mentioned, projecting the the contract is difficult, but a deal in the five-year range around $7 million seems most likely.
For the Devils’ sake, let’s hope they can work out a deal closer to that eight-year range. Especially for an elite talent like Bratt.
Former Mississauga Teammates
The history and relationship between two former first-and-second round picks, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian, is well documented. Each have also similarly, more so for McLeod just last year, forged valuable bottom-line roles with the team. Now, both are due for new contracts.
Bastian has a few years under his belt of very strong on-ice defensive metrics. The offense may not be there, but what he brings defensively and with his body physically are both valuable assets any team would want on their fourth line. Evolving Hockey projects a two-year deal worth roughly 1.768 million.
As mentioned, Bastian’s defensive metrics are legit. He always grades out as one of the team’s top defenders ever since getting meaningful NHL time, as seen above. One would definitely expect a deal, potentially in the three-year range worth north of $1.75 million, to keep Bastian in New Jersey for the foreseeable future.
As for McLeod, the former 12th-overall pick has certainly not had a career that was expected. Though, it appears he finally is engraving a nice role for himself on the fourth line. He set a career-high in points and established himself as a premier faceoff man in the league with a 60.6 percent success rate this past season which ranked third in the NHL (minimum 75 taken).
His on-ice impacts were still subpar (more so offensively), but he has emerged has a strong fourth-line, penalty-killing center. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year deal with a cap hit of $1.946 million. Like his buddy Bastian, I would expect a deal in the three-year range, at a figure around the $2 million.
Change of Scenery?
In most cases as it regards to RFAs, those players will return to the club next season. When players do not return it is either becuase they are not qualified, thus free to enter unrestricted free agency, or traded. Who are the most likely of the Devils’ NHL-level RFAs this may happen to?
Mackenzie Blackwood was arguably the Devil on the roster that had the most to prove entering last season. Unfortunately, as has been the case since he entered the league, injuries and inconsistent play bogged down the 26-year-old. Since entering the league, here is his goals saved above expected in each season:
- 2018-19: -0.43
- 2019-20: -0.54
- 2020-21: -12.62
- 2021-22: -14.57
- 2022-23: 0.44
Is there a NHL-level goalie in there? For sure. Can he stay healthy and put a full season together of consistent average-to-above average play? He hasn’t yet.
That specific reason is why we will likely not see Blackwood back with the Devils next season. Expect either a trade or a non-qualify. A trade is more likely as the team will look to get something for their still young goaltender.
Yegor Sharangovich is another name that may potentially be on the move. After a very strong offensive season in 2021-22 (24 goals and 46 points), expectations were pretty high for the Belarusian forward. Unfortunately, Sharangovich struggled for a lot of the season, sometimes even resulting in a healthy scratch.
In 2022-23, Sharangovich only potted 13 goals and saw his point total drop by 16 in only one less game. He also found himself as a healthy scratch for the majority of the playoffs. When Sharangovich is not scoring, his game is pretty limited as his defensive on ice five-on-five impacts have been very poor since he entered the league, as seen above.
Evolving Hockey is projecting a three-year deal worth $3.55 million annually. Given his performances this year, and the fact that Meier and Bratt are both in for large extensions, his future with the Devils certainly seems up in the air.
With all that being said, Sharangovich is certainly a bounce-back candidate, specifically offensively (14.3 shooting percentage in 2021-22 and a 9.9 percent mark in 2022-23). However, given that his impact can be replicated by either someone externally or internally with relative ease, and likely cheaper, a trade of Sharangovich would make a lot of sense.
The Last of The NHL Group
Jesper Boqvist is an interesting case. He had by far the best year of his career, totaling 21 points while playing a career-high 70 games. His on-ice metrics paint a picture of a perfectly capable third line center/wing. One potential issue is that the Devils have a lot of those types in the pipeline.
One aspect Boqvist has going in his favor is he will be cheap. Evolving Hockey projects a two-year deal worth only $1.5 million per season. If he accepted his qualifying offer, that would only max out at $917,831 over one season. At that price, Boqvist would definitely be worth keeping around.
The last NHL-level RFA is monster defenseman Kevin Bahl. Bahl took positive steps in his progression this season as he skated in 42 games. He ended the season with a superb 54.77 Corsi-for percentage (CF%), which ranked third among Devils’ defenseman, and a 58.21 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%), which ranked second.
His impact may have been overstated by some fans, but there seems to be a legit bottom-pair, shutdown defender potential in the six-foot-six Canadian.
Evolving Hockey projects a two-year deal worth $954,000 and his qualifying offer is only worth $787,500. Expect to see him back in either a depth role or a bottom-pair job as Damon Severson and Ryan Graves both project to walk in unrestricted free agency.
The Rest
Reilly Walsh
Of the remaining six free agents, all of which were predominately either AHL-level or ECHL-level players last year, Reilly Walsh is by far the most notable.
The now 24-year-old defenseman turned in another strong offensive year for Utica (AHL). His game score per game of 0.53 (per AHL Tracker) led Utica defensemen and ranked 19th among 145 AHL under-25 defensemen who played at least 20 games this last season. His defensive game is still below average, but at this point in his development you know what you are getting. An offensive-first, power play specialist who can likely log bottom-pair NHL minutes.
His time is running out to make a mark with the big club, but may have his best shot this season as he, Simon Nemec, and even Brendan Smith (who plays both sides) will likely contend for that bottom-pair role on the right side out of camp. Of course, this if he is not finally traded in some type of package. But, until then, his qualifying offer is worth $874,125.
Remaining of the Group
One guy that we know won’t be back is former Penn State Nittany Lion Aarne Talvitie. Talvitie signed a two-year deal in Finland with Liiga’s TPS. He will be playing over in Finland next year after being drafted in the sixth-round of the 2017 NHL Draft. Talvitie played 144 career games with Utica (AHL) totaling 41 points.
Timur Ibragimov, Jérémy Groleau, and Zack Hayes all played roles with the Comets last year. Ibragimov was acquired in the Timo Meier trade and played decent in 15 AHL games after spending most of his time in the ECHL. Groleau, an undrafted free agent, has played 151 AHL games across four seasons in the Devils’ organization. Meanwhile, Hayes played with three different AHL teams last season, and has three games of NHL experience under his belt.
Given the now loaded left-side playing defensemen in the Devils’ system – 11 projected left-side defensemen in the organization – it would not be surprising if the Devils forgo qualifying one of, or both, Groleau and/or Hayes. As for Ibragimov, he showed something in his limited time – six points in 15 games – with the Comets, qualifying him ($787,500) would make sense.
The last of the long list is goaltender Zachary Èmond. Èmond is a unique 10.2(c) free agent (definition above) and was a sixth-round pick back in 2018. He was another piece in the Meier trade and only played four games last season, all in the ECHL. The Devils’ AHL goaltending depth currently stands at Nico Daws and Tyler Brennan with Schmid currently projected in the NHL.
Final Thoughts
The Devils have a lot of work to do in addressing both restricted and unrestricted free agents. As you can see, most of the team’s 14 RFAs should be back. Of the NHL-level players waiting for their deals, the most likely to not return are Mackenzie Blackwood and Yegor Sharangovich, a trade for each would make sense.
Both Bratt and Meier are due considerable pay days as the rumors have already started. By far, those two should grasp the majority of general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s attention before July 1. Each are core players of the team and should remain in the red and black for the long haul.
As is the case most every offseason, RFAs take some time to sort out. Regardless of this, expect a lot of the names on the above list to return to the organization next season.
Offseason Content
Here is all our offseason content so far in one place:
- Offseason Primer, 5/31/23
- Devils’ Unrestricted Free Agents, 6/5/23
Be sure to keep close eyes on our social media page as well as website in the coming weeks are we ramp up our offseason content!
Note, contract information and projections all per Evolving Hockey. Statistics via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.