It was a year once filled with lofty expectations. Prior to the 2023-24 season, the New Jersey Devils had an over/under points total set at 105.5. This resulting from a season where the team set a franchise record with 112 points. Ultimately, as has been well documented, New Jersey fell woefully short of the Vegas-set 105.5 mark (third-highest in the NHL), netting only 81 points. No team in the NHL regressed more than the Devils in 2023-24.
Well, what went so wrong? Why did the team coming off a historic regular season regress so much? Let’s jump into it.
Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending
For about 64 games, the storyline of most games, and a great number of the team’s losses, centered around the play in between the pipes. Across those first 64 games, which coincided with the trade deadline, three goaltenders (Vitek Vanecek, Nico Daws, and Akira Schmid) appeared in games for the Devils. Here are how they faired:
| Games Played | Save Percentage | Goals Saved Above Expected | |
| Vitek Vanecek | 32 | 0.890 | -13.54 |
| Nico Daws | 20 | 0.891 | -3.98 |
| Akira Schmid | 19 | 0.895 | -4.23 |
In all, the Devils had a total team save percentage of .882 which ranked 31st. Additionally, the team’s high-danger save percentage also ranked second-to-last in the league. As a group, the trio allowed 21.75 more goals than they were expected too.
The aforementioned goals saved above expected (GSAx) statistic doesn’t do a perfect job, but tells a lot of the story. That statistic attempts to isolate goaltending play from the defense in front of them. For a large part of the season, several blamed defensive regression on the reasoning for the Devils’ struggles. However, despite some regression from the borderline elite numbers the unit put up in 2022-23, the Devils were still more than serviceable in their own end for the first half of the season. As the GSAx numbers, among other data points, indicate.
Specifically, prior to January 5, the Devils ranked top 10 in the following categories: shot attempts against, scoring chances against, high-danger chances against, expected goals against, and shots against (all per 60 minutes). After that point, it got much dicier, likely due to a combination of injuries, among other factors. More on that later.
Bottom-line, the play in between the pipes let the Devils down for over 70% of the year. By the time the team got the needed stability in net, injuries, the selling at the trade deadline, and the installation of a new system by interim head coach Travis Green resulted in much worse play in front of the goaltenders. This, in essence, neutralized the much stronger goalie play the team got from trade deadline acquisitions Jake Allen (1.19 GSAx across 13 games) and Kaapo Kähkönen (4.42 GSAx across six games) down the stretch.
Not only did goaltending cost the Devils several points, and likely a playoff spot, it also resulted in a midseason coaching change. Goaltending was a major theme, and not in a good way, for the Devils in 2023-24. Something that general manager Tom Fitzgerald said will be at the top of the team’s wishlist in the offseason. Rightfully so, given it was arguably the largest factor for the miserable 2023-24 season.
Injuries
Every team in the league deals with injuries. However, there were fewer teams in the NHL who dealt with injuries to a greater extent than the Devils. According to NHL Injury Viz, the Devils ranked fifth among NHL teams in “CHIP.” A measurement devised by the website to measure the cap hit of injured players, per game. New Jersey closely trailed the Washington Capitals with the Toronto Maple Leafs gapped pretty well behind New Jersey in sixth.
Of the group, the most notable injury was Dougie Hamilton‘s. The star offensive defenseman was limited to only 20 games. This a year after he led Devils defenseman in goals above replacement (GAR) and posted 22 goals and 74 points while playing all 82 games.
Elsewhere, star Jack Hughes was limited to only 62 games, Nico Hischier missed 11 games, and Jonas Siegenthaler, who largely battled injury the whole season, missed 25 contests. Not to mention, Timo Meier was sidelined for 13 games and was affected by a nagging injury for most of the season before finally turning it on to end the year.
Coincidentally enough, the point where the Devils’ play fell off the most, beginning around January 5, was preceded by injuries to Jack Hughes, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Brendan Smith. Not to mention, Dougie Hamilton was already sidelined and Timo Meier was working his way back from nagging issues. It was just too much for the Devils to continue to bear.
Below are some vital possession metrics before and after that previously mentioned January 5 cut-off date:
| Prior to Jan. 5 | After Jan. 5 | |
| Corsi | 5th (54.63%) | 19th (49.85%) |
| Scoring Chance | 5th (55.21%) | 22nd (48.71%) |
| High-Danger Chance | 8th (53.33%) | 21st (48.85%) |
| Expected Goals | 7th (52.52%) | 23rd (48.21%) |
| Shots | 7th (52.27%) | 20th (49.32%) |
Not only did injuries simply take key players out of the lineup, it arguably, more importantly, forced several players up the lineup that shouldn’t have necessarily been getting the ice time against the higher-level competition they were forced to play. For example, Kevin Bahl, a serviceable bottom-pair defenseman, found himself in the top-four on most nights. Rookies Luke Hughes (21:28 average TOI) and Simon Nemec (19:52 average TOI) were forced into much bigger roles that were projected before the year began. Not to mention, depth players such as Brendan Smith, Chris Tierney, Maxwell Willman, Santeri Hatakka, Nick DeSimone, among others, all played more games than were expected entering the season.
Injuries played a major role for New Jersey this past season. It hurt them in several ways and a much healthier 2024-25 will instantly improve the team’s point output. Interestingly enough, this was something the team largely avoided during their historic 2022-23 season.
Lost Production From 2022-2023
General manager Tom Fitzgerald was put in a very tough spot after the historical 2022-23 season. The team had several pending free agents within the organization and several players waiting in the wings nearing time for their debuts. Not only did he have to replace this departing production with new players, but he had to do so while being cognizant of players in the pipeline (Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec) as well as the long-term salary cap health of the team.
Of the several that contributed to that franchise-best regular season, the most notable subtractions were Damon Severson, Ryan Graves, Tomas Tatar, Yegor Sharangovich, Jesper Boqvist, and Miles Wood. Severson, Tatar, Graves, and Boqvist combined for 45.7 expected goals above replacement (xGAR) in 2022-23, according to Evolving Hockey. This figure made up 30.8% of the team’s total xGAR.
Severson was an outstanding Devil for a long period of time. However, the drafting of Simon Nemec, who was nearing a debut, combined with his deserved reported asking price, made a reunion unrealistic. Graves, meanwhile, also was paid modestly and played the same side as Luke Hughes, who was ready to take a step up the lineup. Elsewhere, the Devils replaced an underrated Tatar with a very solid player in Tyler Toffoli, while Jesper Boqvist was viewed as a replaceable asset playing bottom-six minutes.
Lastly, both Sharangovich and Wood were valued as replacement level and sub-replacement level, respectively, by the xGAR metrics. Sharangovich did have a strong year from a goal-scoring perspective in Calgary, but shot a career-high in terms of percentage and still struggled mightily when it came to on-ice defensive impacts. Not to mention, he’s in line for a large payday after next season, especially if the unlikely high shooting percentage persists.
Given the circumstances outlined above, the departure of those individuals on paper made sense. And, as mentioned, Fitzgerald was significantly restricted by players coming up in the system, disallowing him from signing any long-term replacements when it came to Severson and Graves. The departure of these two, albeit, not at first, really hurt as the injuries piled up, playing a key part in the Devils’ fall-off, especially defensively, during the second half of the season.
It is no secret the loss of several key contributors in one offseason spelt trouble for the team. That is why a repeat of the prior historical season seemed very unlikely. However, on paper, the short-term moves Fitzgerald tried to make (Toffoli, Colin Miller, etc.) should have helped offset, and did to an extent, the losses. But, the injury woes and goaltending struggles were just too much on top of the lost production.
Final Thoughts
Make no mistake about it, the Devils fell woefully short of expectations in 2023-24. However, when you take a step back and analyze why it happened it makes much more sense.
Everyone always wants to blame a sole individual or create a scapegoat for why things went wrong. In this scenario, though, it is quite tough. The firing of head coach Lindy Ruff appeared to signal him as the scapegoat, however, after his departure, the team played noticeably worse despite having better goaltending play. Look out for an article on that in the coming day.
Elsewhere, heads turned to the man who shaped the roster, general manager Tom Fitzgerald. However, as outlined above, Fitzgerald was largely constricted in his ability to ensure a similar team from 2022-23 making his job quite difficult.
It really came down to a culmination of several key aspects which no one person can be faulted for. Unfortunately, that is just how sports go sometimes. Luckily, for New Jersey, the core is still intact and the team has several assets at their disposable. Look for New Jersey to bounce-back big time in 2024-25.