Free Agent Series: Forwards, The Best of The Best

Via Yahoo Sports

The forward group is top heavy with three very strong forwards. A franchise player in Johnny Gaudreau, an elite wing in Filip Forseberg, and a top-line offensive stud in Nazem Kadri. Each of which would make the Devils so much stronger overnight.

Please note, this is article one in a multi-part series that will examine several different unrestricted free agents this offseason. We will look at the best of the best to those who would excel in bottom-six roles. This is just the beginning to our offseason free agent coverage.

Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau is regarded as the crown jewel of the group. For this reason, also the most expensive. The 28-year-old, New Jersey-native exploded this past season for 115 points in only 82 games. He scored 40 goals for the first time in his career and also registered a career-high 75 assists. Up until this past season, the best point year of the left wing’s career was 84 points in 80 games and 99 points in 82 games. Gaudreau turned in a career-year at the best time possible.

At five-foot-nine Gaudreau is certainly not know for his defensive prowess. However, he is a fine defensive player. Over the past three seasons he ranks in the league’s 59th percentile in important defensive metrics. Certainly not going to win a Selke Trophy anytime soon, but not exactly a slouch in his own end either.

The contract projection, via Evolving Hockey, for “Johnny Hockey” is a seven-year deal worth $10,900,000 annually. As mentioned above, Gaudreau had a career-year at the right time and its going to result in a monster contract.

Despite being a Jersey boy, and one of the top wings in the NHL, the Devils would benefit from staying away. A price tag as such, although deserved, could put New Jersey in trouble a few years down the road. It will also limit their ability to further improve this offseason. For a team that is now just one player a way, adding several good players would most likely outweigh adding just one elite player.

Filip Forsberg

The 27-year-old Swede was involved in trade rumors at points this past season. However, he still turned in a career-year. Forsberg tallied 84 points in only 69 games. He scored 42 goals, which is the first time he has eclipsed the 40-goal plateau in his career. The left wing has scored 20-plus goals in all seven seasons he has at least played 40 games in. He has hit 30-plus goals three times in his career.

Player card spanning last three seasons from Evolving Hockey.

The bonafide goal-scorer is an underrated defensive player. His 80th percentile defensive rankings in key defensive metrics over the past three seasons demonstrates such. While he is on the ice, opponents are not generating a ton of chances. An elite goal scorer who can also play good defensive is a commodity that’s hard to come by.

Although an elite wing in his own right, his price tag will be less than the year older Johnny Gaudreau. Evolving Hockey is projecting a seven-year deal at $9,500,000 annually. Teams are surely going to be a bit hesitant at this price, as Forsberg, unlike Gaudreau does not exactly have the history of lighting up the scoreboard every season.

Forsberg only has one season where he was a point-per-game plus player. His career average point-per-game rate sits at 0.83 which is still a terrific figure, but not necessarily one that warrants an almost $10,000,000 per season contract. Going forward, the Swede likely projects as a 30-to-35 goal per season player who totals around 65-80 points per season.

The six-foot-one winger is a terrific player. One that will rightfully be paid handsomely. For New Jersey, it once again comes down to if they want to put most of their eggs in one basket. With the big money they have tied up in Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Nico Hischier. As well as soon-to-be Jesper Bratt, would New Jersey be better off spreading the wealth rather than locking it into one player? Most likely. Although, if New Jersey were to choose one player on this list, given age, price, and type of player, Forsberg should be the guy.

via Getty Images

Nazem Kadri

Like the two above, Kadri picked a heck of a season to have a career-year. Kadri exploded for 87 points in 71 games played while averaging the most ice time of any season in his 13-year career. Coming into this season, Kadri’s highest season point total was 61 in 82 games back in 2016-17. Also, last season, he only tallied 32 points in 56 games, albeit with less ice time.

Defensively, out of the three in this article, Kadri is probably the weakest in his own end. His defensive metrics imply a slightly above league average defensive player. So, he is not a liability there, just not as strong.

Kadri is projected to receive a seven-year, $8,500,000 annual deal by Evolving Hockey. This is a lot of money for someone who had their best season at age 31. It would be surprising to see Kadri duplicate the output he had this past season. A player who registers a goal total in the high-20s and point total in the 60s is a realistic projection. However, not one that warrants the contract he is most likely going to get.

It would be wise for the New Jersey Devils to not pursue Kadri. Especially since he plays the center position. The Devils are already set at the top-six center spot for years to come with Hughes and Hischier. And, as the above indicates, it is likely someone overpays for the former Toronto Maple Leaf.

Conclusion

Each of the above three are all very good hockey players. Gaudreau is one of the league’s best, while Forsberg is a terrific goal-scorer. Nazem Kadri also has a history of being a very strong offensive presence. However, each coincidentally had career-seasons at the best times. Thus inflating what would have been already a very high price tag.

For the Devils, it comes down to smart management of their assets. At the end of the day, general manager Tom Fitzgerald would most likely benefit more from spreading around his roughly $25,000,000 in cap space one a few different strong players rather than just one elite. Especially since the Devils some holes to fill. Regardless, whoever add the above are going to be thrilled with what they are getting.

Note, percentile data via Evolving Hockey.

1 comment on “Free Agent Series: Forwards, The Best of The Best”

  1. Gio Reply

    If we could get Forsburg for 7x$9.5 I wouldn’t blink before saying yes. Most wings are dependent on their center & Forsburg has never played with a guy like Hughes. Take out Forsburg & for the last 5yrs they’ve got nobody scoring 60-70pts. This year’s huge year was Forsburg dragging his linemates up to over their ceiling. Reminds me of Hall’s MVP year with Nico & Bratt/Palmieri.

    Kadri had a huge upgrade in teammates. His defensive impacts are frightening with how good their D is. He’s an awful fit for our system. If our Dmen get deep into the O zone then a fwd needs to cover that D spot. That’s the last thing that you want

    As much as I’d kill for Johnny G that price tag is just to high with to much risk for decline in the final years of his contract. As he ages he’s not a guy that if his play drops off he can’t drop down the lineup. There still hasn’t been a team to win the Cup with a current player making $10 or more. I’d rather have a deeper more balanced team than paying huge on the top 6 & totally rely on them.

    Out of all 3 Forsburg is the most likely to repeat if not increase in goals & assists having much better centers with Jack & Nico. He’s the best option for our system for his play without the puck. Adding Forsburg & Slafkovsky there should be immediate playoff expectations provided goaltending is fixed

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