Introduction

The New Jersey Devils decided to begin the year with Matt Tennyson as the team’s sixth defenseman. This has left both Connor Carrick and Will Butcher as healthy scratches for the first two games of the season. This decision has proved to be the incorrect one. 

Whenever the pairing of Tennyson and rookie Ty Smith has been on the ice, the New Jersey Devils have been severely caved in at even strength. The presence of Tennyson alongside Smith has also led to struggles by the rookie in his own end.

Believe it or not, according to our social media pages – specifically Facebook, there have been people coming to Tennyson’s defense. Individuals have noted that Tennyson has not only performed well, but has been a “safety net” for the rookie Ty Smith. A further dive into several different telling statistics will confirm how Tennyson has not only expired immense struggles himself, but also has had an ill-effect on rookie defenseman Ty Smith.

Matt Tennyson’s Individual Statistics

Matt Tennyson’s possession and underlying statistics are the worst of any Devils players. His Corsi For % (CF%), which is a ratio of a team’s shot attempts for and against while the specific player is on the ice, is 17.21. This rating is not only last on the Devils but also ranks 520^th among 528 qualified players (as of 6:00 PM 1/16/21). His Expected Goals For % (xGF%), which is a ratio measuring the probability and quality of a shot attempt for and against, of 27.48, is last among Devils’ defenseman and 460^th among 528 qualified players (as of 6:00 PM 1/16/21). 

Now, a determining factor on why these statics may be so poor is where Tennyson usually starts on the ice. However, he has an average offensive zone start of 60%. This means 60% of the time when there is a faceoff, Tennyson has started in the opponent’s zone. And after, as confirmed by the above statistics, finds himself hemmed back in his own.

The Plus/Minus Argument

Now, many may argue that Tennyson’s plus-three rating is indicative of good play. Plus/minus is an extremely misleading statistic. There are several circumstances where a bad plus/minus or a good plus/minus is indicative of a player’s performance. For example, Damon Severson has been the Devils’ best defenseman and overall a solid top-four, two-way defenseman for the past two-plus seasons. However, he has a minus-47 rating in the last two seasons. Plus/minus is a poor metric to use when gauging play.

Matt Tennyson’s Poor Affect on Ty Smith

Rookie defenseman Ty Smith has been paired with Matt Tennyson for the first two games this season. This pairing has not gone well. Although Ty Smith has contributed two points in these games, his defensive numbers are subpar. They’re still better than Tennyson’s, but Smith has a CF% of 29.43% and an xGF% of 31.76%. Each well below the average of 50.00 and one of the worst percentages on the Devils’ team. This comes as no surprise given the play and statistics of his partner.

Pair	Corsi For % (CF%)	Expected Goals For % (xGF%)
P.K. Subban & Ryan Murray	55.32	53.63
Dmitry Kulikov & Damon Severson	57.50	70.71
Matt Tennyson & Ty Smith	34.29	33.53

A further sign that the blame should be put on Tennyson is Ty Smith’s number with and without the veteran. With Tennyson as a partner, the duo has contributed a CF% of 34.29 and an xGF% of 33.53. Each the lowest marks, by far, of any Devils’ defensive pair this year (see above). Also, of 31 qualified defensive pairings league-wide the Tennyson/Smith pairing ranks 29^th in CF% and 27^th in xGF% (as of 6:00 PM 1/16/21).

Interestingly enough, for a short time head coach Lindy Ruff re-united Ty Smith and Damon Severson. This was a pairing for most of training camp. As a duo, they contributed a CF% of 62.50 and an xGF% of 81.07. Each the highest mark of any Devils’ defensive pairing this year. Of course, this is only a small sample size. Nonetheless, this is what Lindy Ruff should go back to. Not only would it benefit the team, but it would also benefit the young rookie’s development.

Why Tennyson is Not the “Ideal” Partner for Ty Smith

The biggest defensive people have been preaching when it comes to Matt Tennyson is that his playstyle complements the rookie “perfectly.” People believe that Tennyson’s serving as a “safety net” for the rookie. However, to do that Tennyson would need to be responsible in his own end. And to put it lightly, he is not.

When Tennyson is on the ice the Devils bleed opponent chances, both in quantity and quality. This is evident by Tennyson’s extremely high CA/60 (quantity) and xGA/60 (quality). Both are not only the highest marks out of all defenseman on his team, but also ranks 79th and 74^th out of 91 qualified defensemen in the respective statical categories (as of 6:00 PM 1/16/21). Therefore, calling Tennyson, a “safety net,” “front-net presence,” or “reliable in his own zone” is incorrect. Both the eye-test and analytical data back that claim up.

Instead, the defenseman on the Devils’ roster that would fit all the above adjectives is a guy that not only Smith played with for most of training camp, but also one who has succeeded within a small sample size this year. That is Devils top all-around defenseman, Damon Severson.

What’s Next?

It is pretty simple, and not that all surprising. Matt Tennyson is not an NHL-level defenseman, and his play this year has shown exactly that. The fact that the Devils’ fourth-best defenseman, Will Butcher, has been a healthy scratch as a result, is mind-boggling. 

However, in Matt Tennyson’s defense, it may be Dmitry Kulikov hindering Will Butcher from getting into the lineup, as both Kulikov and Butcher are lefties. Nonetheless, at this point, Connor Carrick would be a better option than Matt Tennyson.

Tennyson not only has put up poor numbers himself but has also affected the Devils’ top rookie prospect Ty Smith negatively. The eye-test, which shows Tennyson and his partner constantly hemmed in their own zone, and the analytical data show these exact claims. Hopefully Head Coach Lindy Ruff realizes it sooner rather than later, re-unites Damon Severson and Ty Smith, and gets defenseman Will Butcher back in the lineup.

Note, advanced statistics courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com and Natural Stat Trick.