Introduction
Unfortunately for New Jersey Devils fans, their team will not be “buyers” at the impending trade deadline, which is scheduled for April 12th at 3:00 PM ET. Instead, like has been the case more often than not for the past eight-plus seasons, the New Jersey Devils will be categorized as “sellers.”
Please note, it has been widely reported this trade deadline will be quieter than most. This is due to the current environment of the league, namely the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still causing teams to institute internal spending budgets directly affecting the money they are willing to absorb at the deadline.
However, as we have seen already, there will certainly still be some buyers at the deadline. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and New York Islanders have all been rumored in the market. Additionally, we have already seen the Montreal Canadiens make a move to acquire former Buffalo Sabres center Eric Staal, and should expect more action between now and next Monday.
The Trade Candidates
Kyle Palmieri
Background:
Kyle Palmieri is one of the most popular names in the NHL right now. Seemingly every day, there is different news popping up on NHL Twitter and from Insiders regarding the 30-year old goal scorer. Like most trade deadline candidates, Palmieri is in the final year of his contract and being viewed by many contenders as a highly-coveted rental.
Palmieri is having a down year by his standard. Albeit he has picked it up significantly of late – tallying four goals and three assists in the Devils’ last 12 games. Keep in mind, in each of his previous five years with the Devils, Palmieri has tallied 24 or more goals.
What is the Most Likely Outcome?
It was rumored for a while that General Manager Tom Fitzgerald wanted to work with Kyle Palmieri’s camp to extend the Jersey boy for the coming years. However, it has been recently reported these contract talks have stalled and looks more likely he’ll be getting dealt. This has now led to Kyle Palmieri getting the Taylor Hall treatment and getting held out of games for “precautionary reasons.”
If this is the case, Palmieri should have several suitors despite the down year. Evaluating a rather desolate market and Palmieri should be right at the top of forwards. Suitors such as the Boston Bruins and New York Islanders make a ton of sense, while General Manager Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs are also rumored to be looking for forward help. Other teams mentioned have been the Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche. What is a fair return for Kyle Palmieri you may ask? A lower A or high B-level prospect and second-round pick seems to fair—and also the rumored return.
Nikita Gusev
Background:
It felt almost as if Devils fans willed the trade for Nikita Gusev a couple of seasons ago into happening. Just shy of two years later, it seems to now be the complete opposite and New Jersey Devils fans are trying to will Gusev out of New Jersey. Like Palmieri, Gusev is on an expiring contract, so the 28-year old’s services may be pursued as a rental. Especially now that Gusev was placed on waivers and cleared, he’s become eligible for any team’s taxi squad.
After showing much promise in his first NHL season, the Russian winger has regressed considerably, after finding himself as a healthy scratch for a large majority of the season and putting up abysmal numbers. As you can see in the chart above that compares this and last season, Gusev has been extremely underwhelming in 2021. This story holds with his traditional statistics, as his point-per-game average has decreased from 0.67 to 0.25. It has been an immense struggle this year.
What is the Most Likely Outcome?
Unlike Kyle Palmieri and other teammates, Nikita Gusev has not been the topic of trade rumors among NHL Insiders. Rather it’s just been speculation and quite honestly makes sense to an extent. Gusev is a 28-year old, coming off a very solid inaugural season. There are certainly teams out there that believe – with better line mates – “the Goose,” can find that magic once again.
However, given the aforementioned current environment of the NHL, a player that’s struggled as mightily as Gusev may not be on the radar of many teams. Especially given his cap hit of $4,500,000, albeit pro-rated now. In any other season, sure a trade would probably be an option. This season seems unlikely. It would not be all that surprising to see Gusev remain on the taxi squad for a large remainder of the season.
Dmitry Kulikov
Background:
In a year of mostly bad, Dmitry Kulikov has been an extremely pleasant surprise for the Devils. Kulikov was signed as a presumed-depth defenseman in the offseason to a one-year, $1,150,000 contract. After apparently winning a lineup spot in camp, the Russian defenseman has rivaled Damon Severson as the team’s best blue liner this year.
The left-handed defenseman has played almost 20 minutes a night while serving in a top-four role. He has played an extremely valuable role on the penalty kill. Kulikov’s traditional statistics aren’t all that desirable, tallying only two assists in 35 games. However, he does throw around his body as evidenced by his 66 hits. His underlying statistics really show how valuable he has been.
Dmitry Kulikov’s expected goals-for % (xGF%) of 54.07 and Corsi-for % (CF%) of 53.56 rank 32nd and 23rd in the league of 155 qualified defensemen. His defensive pairing with P.K. Subban rank 6th in the NHL with a CF% of 54.50 and 16th in the NHL with an xGF% of 52.70. This of 39 qualified pairings. The chart above also further demonstrates how much of an impact Kulikov has personally had for the Devils this season.
What is the Most Likely Outcome?
The Devils have surely recognized Kulikov’s good play and if they haven’t already, definitely will when teams come calling. It has already been reported that the Boston Bruins have reached out in regard to Kulikov. What has made him so coveted besides the splendid play? Well, it’s simple, the contract only comes with a cap hit of $1,150,000 which is now pro-rated down even less. In an NHL season all about cutting back costs and abiding by a budget, adding Kulikov would come with very little monetary cost. The return for Kulikov could surprise some people, so much that predicting what it may be is a bit difficult. A good guess? Possibly a second and fourth-rounder, maybe a third and fifth.
Now, keep in mind that as it stands, the New Jersey Devils only have four defensemen under contract for next season: P.K. Subban (right-handed), Damon Severson (right-handed), Ty Smith (left-handed), and Will Butcher (left-handed). This is of course before the Seattle expansion draft that may result in either Subban or Butcher getting claimed. Nonetheless, the point is New Jersey needs an NHL defenseman for next year. Re-signing a 30-year old Dmitry Kulikov to a cheaper short-term extension would not only make sense but bring a ton of value to the team.
The extension idea may be wishful thinking, especially with the trade market heating up. Ultimately, it appears likely the Devils may move Kulikov, as the recent rumors have indicated. However, given his value and solid stretch of play, keeping and extending Kulikov may not only be the correct thing to do but a real possibility.
Ryan Murray
Background:
Defenseman Ryan Murray was acquired in the offseason for only a fifth-round pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Unfortunately, despite staying healthy, the season has not gone how Murray and Devils’ fans may have hoped. As there was even a period of a couple of games where he found himself to be a healthy scratch. Nonetheless, the 28-year old and his one-year cap hit of $4,600,000 is still more than worth the fifth-rounder the Devils moved for him.
In 28 games this year, Ryan Murray has contributed 10 assists while playing almost 18 minutes a night. As far as points go, Murray has been heating up lately, totaling six in his last four and overall playing a bit better.
A deeper dive into his advanced statistics doesn’t paint a very pretty picture. Murray’s CF% of 47.07 is 7th among Devils defensemen this year, only better than Connor Carrick and Matt Tennyson. His xGF% of 45.00 ranks 7th as well, ahead of only Tennyson and Will Butcher. His play this year has certainly been underwhelming as evidenced by the chart above, showing where his individual on-ice impact ranks league-wide.
What is the Most Likely Outcome?
Despite his shaky numbers, the 28-year-old does provide decent value for teams looking for an experienced bottom-to-middle-pairing defenseman, especially given his play as of late. His $4,600,000 cap hit may scare some teams, however, so a deal for Murray could involve the Devils retaining some salary.
Either way, if the Devils look to move Murray, which is very possible, they should be able to acquire a decent bit more than what they moved for him. This is pretty surprising given the way he has played this season. The Boston Bruins and the Montreal Canadiens are both teams that may be players.
At the end of the day, it would be a bit surprising to see Murray remaining with the Devils. In comparison to Kulikov, Murray should be the better bet to be moved. As he has a lot less of a chance to be with the team next year than Kulikov does. But, in the end you never know, and that is what the trade deadline is all about.
Conclusion
The 2021 NHL trade deadline may look a lot different this year. But as fans, it is always an interesting time. More so for teamss and sellers like the New Jersey Devils. Of the candidates above a couple of other names to keep your eye on are Aaron Dell, P.K. Subban, Sami Vatanen, Scott Wedgewood, and Miles Wood.
Full rankings, in order of likelihood to be dealt, is as follows: Kyle Palmieri, Ryan Murray, Aaron Dell, Dmitry Kulikov, Nikita Gusev, Scott Wedgewood, Sami Vatanen, P.K. Subban, and Miles Wood.
For all NHL trade deadline updates leading up to the 3:00 PM ET, April 12th deadline stay tuned to our social media pages.
All statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving-Hockey taken as of April 5, 2021