It is that time of year again! The NHL trade deadline is set for Monday, March 21st at 3:00 PM ET. Like has been the case in several prior years, the New Jersey Devils are all but eliminated from playoff contention. However, unlike other years, it appears the team does not the assets to sell off at the deadline and be true “sellers.”
Interestingly enough, through an interview with NHL.com, it appears general manager Tom Fitzgerald still will look to be active in hopes of making a “hockey trade.” Basically, a deal that will improve the Devils going forward and not just see the team selling off a rental for a draft pick(s). Fitzgerald also mentioned he would be content to stand pat, which would make sense given the Devils’ roster. Regardless, if New Jersey is active, who are the top candidate to get moved?
Note, you can keep track of all moves and the most likely to get dealt league-wide, via our tracker and trade list right here.
Pavel Zacha
The trade rumors around Zacha has steadily picked up steam the past month or so. The 24-year old is a pending restricted free agent and is due a new contract at season’s end. It is safe to say he took a step back this season after setting a career-high in points (35) in just 50 games last season. He only has 28 in 54 games this year and, as the below will examine, far weaker overall on-ice impacts.
Zacha’s underlying metrics paint two totally different pictures year-over-year. Last year he had arguably his strongest offensive impact (NHL’s 80th percentile offensively in key offensive metrics) and struggled – as he usually does – defensively. However, this year, his offensive impact returned to his career-norm (NHL’s 16th percentile), but his defensive impact has sky-rocketed to a career-best (NHL’s 87th percentile).
Zacha is a fine bottom-six forward. At times, he displays a nice shot and can occasionally chip in offensively. His defensive play, up until this year, has been lackluster at five-on-five. It is risky to bet on him replicating his defensive impact this year repeating going forward. So, at the end of the day, he is a third-line asset who has history of being successful on the penalty kill and shooting the puck on occasion.
It appears, given he’s 24-years old and the fact he is under team control, teams are interested in the Czechia-born forward. If New Jersey can sell Zacha in a package that gets the team an established top-six forward, general manager Tom Fitzgerald should do so. If a package does not present itself, Zacha most likely will not cost much to re-sign given his down year. He can certainly still be an asset to the Devils’ bottom-six. Also, despite being injured during the Devils’ loss against Vancouver, given the team control, do not expect that to hinder his ability to be moved. Out of any Devil, he appears the most likely to be dealt.
How Likely to be Dealt? High, given team control, age, and “potential.”
Possible Destinations: Vancouver Canucks, Montreal Canadiens, Arizona Coyotes
Jimmy Vesey
Certainly not the flashiest name on this list, but Vesey is one of the few unrestricted free agents the Devils have. As a professional try-out (PTO), it was good seeing Vesey earn a contract. However, he has not exactly performed well in his 57 games with the team. His goals above replacement (GAR) is the second-lowest of any Devil this season. The figure ranks 574 out of 619 NHL skaters who have played at least 350 minutes of total ice time. To put it nicely, at five-on-five Vesey has struggled mightily.
The area Vesey has excelled in is the penalty kill. He has done a lot of great work on that unit this year. As the above player card shows, the “SH Defense” section shows Vesey’s excellence on the kill. So much so, it drove his defensive percentile ranking all the way up despite his below average five-on-five defensive impact.
If general manager Tom Fitzgerald is able to sell a team on Vesey, the penalty kill should be his talking point. If this talking point works, and the Devils are offered any type of asset, New Jersey should certainly bite. Even if it is only a sixth-round pick, any type of asset you can get for a player that was brought on as a PTO and will not be back with the team next year is worthwhile.
How Likely to be Dealt? Moderate, given possible lack of interest.
Possible Destinations: Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers, St. Louis Blues
P.K. Subban
Headed into the season, and as the season progressed, Subban appeared the most likely Devil to be moved at some point. However, recently reports have came out indicating that his contract may make it hard for New Jersey to move him at all. The 32-year old defenseman is in the last year of an eight-year deal that is seeing him paid $9,000,000. So, even with 50% retained by the Devils, a $4,500,000 cap hit is still a lot to take on.
Subban has been more than adequate for the role he has been asked to play this season. He has actually had quite the bounce-back season and his best as a Devil. In terms of GAR, he earned a -10.1 rating in his first year with the team and a -1.3 rating last season. However, this year he is at a 4.4 rating which is seventh-highest on the team. He is also on pace to his highest point total over his three years with the team.
Still, at this point, Subban is a bottom-pair defenseman who can display his strong shot at points. Will a team have the room to take on a cap hit of at least $4,500,000 for this type of player? Teams have certainly done way worst in the past. But, between the reports of his contract making it difficult, and general manager Tom Fitzgerald reportedly not actively shopping him, it appears a there’s a real possibility Subban will be with the Devils past the deadline.
Also worth pointing out, despite not reportedly shopping him, the team also is not actively pursuing an extension with Subban. Could that change? Maybe. However, if this is the case the Devils should do all they can to try to get an asset for Subban. If that is not possible, it would not be the worst thing if he rides out his contract with the team. Furthermore, trading Subban can open the door for getting Reilly Walsh much-deserved NHL ice time. Regardless, Subban is certainly a name to keep an eye on as Monday approaches.
How Likely to be Dealt? Low, given contract and lack of contenders with cap room.
Possible Destinations: Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild, Columbus Blue Jackets
Damon Severson
Severson is by far the most intriguing Devil that has had his name involved in trade rumors. For a full breakdown of what the Devils should do with Severson, who is due to be an unrestricted free agent after 2022-23, you can find a previously written article here.
To summarize that article, Severson is a very strong, top-four defenseman. He puts up offensive and defensive impacts at a rate top-30 NHL defenseman do. Any team in the league would be better off with his services. Why would New Jersey want to trade the home-grown 27-year old who is so solid?
Well, the package might be too good to pass up. If an opposing general manager is calling you and offering a first-round pick, an A-level prospect, a strong young NHL-ready player, and more, New Jersey must do what is right. This speculated return may sound crazy at first, but Ben Chiarot fetched a first-round pick plus and the rumored asking price for Hampus Lindholm is a first-round pick, an A-level prospect, and more. Each are pending unrestricted free agents and having weaker seasons, especially Chiarot, than Severson is.
However, it is very possible either New Jersey do not get calls on Severson or the packages being offered are not up to par. If this is the case, the Devils can simply retain Severson and even entertain something that fans are not accustomed to; retain a very good player the team developed on their own. Of course, he is still under contract for another year and any extension most likely will not come right away. Furthermore, there is no guarantee the Canadien even wants to return to New Jersey. So, a trade next season may make more sense, even though his value currently is sky-high. Nonetheless, a very intriguing name as the deadline gets closer.
How Likely to be Dealt? Low, given value to Devils or desired package being too high.
Possible Destinations: Carolina Hurricanes, Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames, Boston Bruins
Other Possibilities
Outside of Vesey and Subban, the only other notable Devils’ who are unrestricted free agents at year’s end are Colton White, Mason Geertsen, and Jon Gillies. Would the Devils be able to get any assets for any of these guys? Highly, highly unlikely.
2023 Unrestricted Free Agents
Andreas Johnsson is a name that has been floated out there as well (in connection with Arizona). He is set to be an unrestricted free agent after next season. Johnsson had a terrific start to the year, but has cooled off mightily. He would still be an upgrade to many team’s middle-six offense and does not bring a large cap hit. However, it seems a bit unlikely New Jersey would move on, as it would just open another hole to address in the offseason.
Tomas Tatar, like Johnsson, is also set to become an unrestricted free agent after next season. He has picked up his play lately but still has been one of the bigger disappointments for New Jersey this season. Selling low on Tatar would not be wise, and, like trading Johnsson, would just open another hole the Devils would have to deal with in the offseason. Given his career-low 10.8 shooting percentage he is a prime bounce-back candidate next year.
Other Young Guys
Two young guys that may be worth keeping an eye on is Ty Smith and MacKenzie Blackwood. Each have struggled mightily this year and Blackwood has not been able to get over a heel injury. Smith could be used in a larger package to make a splash and acquire a higher-tier top-six forward. While Blackwood could use a change of scenery. Interestingly enough, Blackwood both changed agents and was featured in Frank Seravalli’s recent piece as an available goaltender. Of the two, it appears Blackwood is the more likely to get dealt. However, both remaining with New Jersey through year’s end seems more likely, for now.
An extreme dark horse candidate is Miles Wood. He has yet to play this year as he is recovering from hip surgery. However, he had a career-year last season with very strong offensive and defensive impacts. He’s fast, physical, and can put the puck in the net. Something that is coveted by many. He is under team control as he is a restricted free agent at year’s which is another enticing aspect for teams. However, it would be very surprising to see New Jersey move him.
Our very own trade tracker and league-wide top-20 trade list can be found here.
Statistics via Evolving Hockey and contract information from Cap Friendly.