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The New Jersey Devils hit the ten-game mark over the weekend, sporting a 4-3-3 record before defeating the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday. The Devils scored 23 goals (2.30 goals per game) ten games into the season, and were the fifth-lowest scoring team in the league. This isn’t an unfamiliar position for the Devils, who have been one of the league’s lowest scoring teams every year since the last lockout. With almost six months and over 70 regular season games left, it’s easy to dismiss New Jersey’s sluggish offense and hold out hope that the goals could (and will) eventually come. Despite how early it is, the Devils offensive performance in their first ten games this season might form a clearer picture on what to expect moving forward than most might realize.

The charts below look at the ten highest and lowest-scoring NHL teams in the last three years (2013-2016). The charts (separated by season) compare each team’s average goals per game in their first ten matchups, and entirety of each season. Each chart shows the change in average goals per game for every team between the ten-game mark and rest of the year, which provides some interesting insight on what to expect from the Devils moving forward.

 

2015-2016

Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change	Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change
1	Dallas	3.50	3.25	-.25	21	Winnipeg	3.20	2.62	-.58
2	Washington	3.40	3.07	-.33	22	Philadelphia	2.00	2.61	+.61
3	Pittsburgh	2.00	2.98	+.98	23	Detroit	2.30	2.57	+.27
4	San Jose	2.70	2.94	+.24	24	Arizona	2.70	2.55	-.15
5	Boston	3.90	2.92	-.98	25	Edmonton	2.20	2.47	+.27
6	Florida	3.10	2.91	-.19	26	Buffalo	2.20	2.45	+.25
7	NY Rangers	2.80	2.88	+.08	27	Carolina	2.00	2.41	+.41
8	Ottawa	3.00	2.88	-.12	28	Toronto	2.00	2.41	+.41
9	Chicago	2.00	2.86	+.86	29	Vancouver	2.70	2.33	-.37
10	NY Islanders	3.30	2.83	-.47	30	NJ Devils	2.40	2.24	-.16

2014-2015

Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change	Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change
1	Tampa Bay	3.40	3.19	-.21	21	Colorado	2.20	2.67	+.47
2	Dallas	3.20	3.18	-.02	22	Philadelphia	3.20	2.62	-.58
3	NY Rangers	2.60	3.07	+.47	23	Boston	2.50	2.59	+.09
4	NY Islanders	3.40	3.07	-.33	24	Toronto	2.90	2.57	-.33
5	St. Louis	2.40	3.02	+.62	25	Florida	1.50	2.51	+1.01
6	Vancouver	3.30	2.95	-.35	26	Edmonton	2.70	2.41	-.29
7	Washington	2.90	2.95	+.05	27	Carolina	2.10	2.29	+.19
8	Calgary	2.50	2.94	+.44	28	NJ Devils	3.00	2.20	-.80
9	Ottawa	2.70	2.90	+.20	29	Arizona	2.20	2.07	-.13
10	Anaheim	3.00	2.88	-.12	30	Buffalo	1.00	1.96	+.96

2013-2014

Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change	Rank	Team	10 games	Season	Change
1	Chicago	2.90	3.25	+.35	21	Montreal	3.30	2.62	-.68
2	Anaheim	3.20	3.24	+.04	22	Calgary	2.90	2.54	-.46
3	Boston	3.00	3.18	+.18	23	Minnesota	2.10	2.52	+.42
4	Colorado	3.20	3.04	-.16	24	Carolina	2.30	2.52	+.22
5	San Jose	4.10	3.03	-1.07	25	Los Angeles	2.30	2.51	+.21
6	Pittsburgh	3.30	3.03	-.27	26	Edmonton	2.90	2.47	-.43
7	St. Louis	4.10	3.02	-1.08	27	NJ Devils	2.00	2.40	+.40
8	Tampa Bay	3.40	2.92	-.48	28	Vancouver	2.70	2.39	-.31
9	Philadelphia	1.80	2.87	+1.07	29	Florida	2.10	2.39	+.29
10	Ottawa	2.80	2.87	+.07	30	Buffalo	1.20	1.91	+.71

 

While these charts don’t necessarily reflect whether New Jersey has a good shot at making the playoffs, it sheds light on determining whether New Jersey’s offense is capable of improving. Over the past three seasons, 26 out of the 60 teams on the charts above experienced an up or downswing of more than .40 goals per game, while the rest experienced a lesser change in their gamely scoring average.

Based on these figures, the Devils roughly have a 43% chance to undergo an up or downswing of .40 goals or more beyond the ten-game mark of this season. Out of those 26 teams however, only 15 had an upswing of .40 goals or more per game, while the 11 other teams suffered a downswing of .40 goals or more per game. If these charts are any indication, the Devils currently have just a 25% chance of undergoing an upswing of .40 goals or more from their ten-game average of 2.30 goals.

This isn’t to say the Devils are fated for another low-scoring season. In most cases however, the teams on the charts above have averaged around the same number of goals per game throughout each season that they had at the ten-goal mark. The way New Jersey’s roster is structured and the changes they went through this offseason, the Devils probably haven’t reached their ceiling just yet. The precedent they set with 2.30 goals per game at the ten-game mark gives the Devils a lot of room for improvement, but they have some stifling odds to overcome if they want to improve their average goal-scoring output.