After a blowout win over the Washington Capitals on Thursday, the New Jersey Devils (39-34-2, 7th Metropolitan) will face the Montreal Canadiens (44-21-10, 3rd Atlantic) Saturday night at the Prudential Center in the first game of a home-and-home duel.
Overview
The Devils recovered nicely from their loss against the Rangers earlier this week by beating the pulp out of Washington 7-3. Pretty much everyone got on the scoresheet, with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt each having five-point nights. They’re 2-2-0 in their last four games, but were red hot in March, and appear primed to continue their strong run of form into April. They’re eight points out of the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with seven games to play, a likely insurmountable gap. Still, New Jersey has found their legs right in time to be a thorn in Montreal’s side over the next two games.
The Canadiens, on the other hand, are in a strong position in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but find themselves in a tight race for the Atlantic crown. They were just one of many Eastern teams in the crowded playoff race for much of the season, but have launched themselves to the top of the pile by rattling off seven wins in a row, most recently against the Rangers on Thursday. Their defense and goaltending have been electric over this stretch, never allowing more than three goals. They’ll have a tough challenge maintaining that streak against an offensively hot Devils team.
The Devils beat the Canadiens 4-3 in their last meeting on November 6.
Lines and Pairings
Devils-
Forwards
Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Bratt-Hughes-Brown
Hameenaho-Glass-Bjugstad
Dadonov-Cotter-Tysplakov
Defense
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Hughes-Kovacevic
Dillion-Nemec
Goalies
Markstrom
Allen
Canadiens-
Forwards
Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky
Newhook-Kapanen-Demidov
Bolduc-Evans-Anderson
Veleno-Danault-Gallagher
Defense
Matheson-Dobson
Struble-Hutson
Guhle-Xhekaj
Goalies
Fowler
Dobes
Keys to the Game
Can Dawson Mercer Get Hot?
While the Devils’ star players have rounded into form over the past couple of weeks, Dawson Mercer has struggled to find the back of the net. That was until Thursday, when he scored twice in the win over Washington, breaking an 11-game goal drought.
Mercer has always provided value with his durability and has played every game this season, but he probably expects more than the 17 goals he’s scored so far. With the rest of his team getting hot, perhaps Mercer can join the party after a great game.
Canadiens’ Streak Unsustainable
While the Canadiens have been the hottest team in the NHL over the last few weeks, their run of form is unsustainable. They’ve certainly played well, but their underlying numbers show that a regression is likely. Montreal has posted a 15.31 shooting percentage (SH%) over their last seven games, a league-leading figure in that time. They also lead the league through the full season, but less dramatically with an 11.48 SH%.
The Canadiens have also played their opponents a lot closer than their win streak implies, with 2.47 expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) since March 21. Compare that to the four GF/60 they’ve scored since then, and we see a team scoring more than expected. The Devils will look to capitalize on some regression to the mean tonight.
Tight Race for Montreal
While the Devils may be out of the playoff race, the Canadiens are right in the thick of it. They’re well clear of the last wild card spot, with a 10-point advantage over Ottawa, but are jockeying for position in the Atlantic with Tampa and Buffalo. Both the Sabres and Lightning have 100 points, though Buffalo has played one more game than Tampa. Montreal is hot on their heels with 98 points and a game in hand on Buffalo.
All three of these teams are almost certainly playoff-bound, but they’ll be fighting down the stretch for a chance to face a potentially weaker wildcard team. The Canadiens will have their work cut out for them to earn that prize with two games in a row against a suddenly competitive Devils team.
Where to Watch
Tonight’s game can be seen on MSG at 7:00 pm ET.