Playoff hockey is back in New Jersey! After missing the playoffs last season, the Devils return to the postseason for the first time since 2023, where they defeated the New York Rangers in round one before losing to the Carolina Hurricanes in round two. This is only the third time over the last 13 seasons New Jersey has made the postseason. They are set to face the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes, who finished the season 47-30-5, are in the playoffs for the seventh-straight season. The furtherest they’ve advanced over this stretch is the Eastern Conference finals in both 2018-19 and 2022-23. Carolina has not lost in the first round over this seven season stretch. Given the above record was good enough for second in the Metropolitan Division, the Hurricanes get home ice advantage in the first round.
Meanwhile, New Jersey finished the regular season at 42-33-7, despite being hampered greatly by injuries. Head coach Sheldon Keefe continued his streak of making the postseason every single season as a head coach in his career. They finished third in the Metropolitan Division.
Game 1 is in Raleigh and is set to begin Sunday at 3:00 pm ET. For the full schedule, please click here. With the slate ready to go, let’s preview the first round matchup between the two teams in depth.
Devils Offense Versus Hurricanes Defense (five-on-five)
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Devils’ offense and the Hurricanes’ defense, in key statistical areas entering the series:
| Devils (league ranking) | Hurricanes (league ranking) | |
| Goals (for/against) | 2.22 (25th) | 2.54 (22nd) |
| Shots (for/against) | 26.11 (25th) | 24.32 (1st) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 58.84 (12th) | 48.92 (1st) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 2.52 (18th) | 2.38 (10th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 27.33 (9th) | 24.09 (4th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 10.66 (17th) | 11.01 (21st) |
| Shooting Percentage (Devils)/Save Percentage (Hurricanes) | 8.50 (22nd) | .896 (31st) |
On offense, you cannot analyze the Devils without noting star forward Jack Hughes (70 points in 62 games) is out for the playoffs. Outside him, the Devils are led by underrated star Jesper Bratt (88 points), Nico Hischier (69 points), Timo Meier (53 points), and Luke Hughes (44 points). Stefan Noesen set a career-high with 22 goals (fourth on the team) and Dawson Mercer trailed him closely with 19 goals.
As the above table points out quickly, the Hurricanes’ biggest struggle, not only at five-on-five, but as a team, is goaltending. We will get more into the culprits of these struggles later, but as a team, Carolina has once again played strong defense. The inflated goal against figure (22nd) is largely due to porous play in between the pipes (31st-ranked five-on-five save percentage).
The Devils, this season, especially after the injury to Hughes, have uncharacteristically not been as great offensively at five-on-five. Their biggest issue has been finishing, couple that with a team that hasn’t generated at a great rate (18th-best expected goals), and it has been a struggle to score at even strength.
The main area, outside goaltending, the Devils may be able to take care of Carolina is, despite Carolina’s strength at suppressing shot attempts and scoring chances overall, they are susceptible to allowing higher-danger chances. So, when teams are able to actually generate something against Carolina, it is usually higher danger, as evident by Carolina’s 21st-ranked high-danger attempts against at five-on-five this season.
The bottom line, the Hurricanes’ defense should be able to hamper the Devils’ attack at five-on-five. It will just come down to if their goaltending play holds up. If they even get serviceable goaltending, it might be a tough go of it at even strength for the New Jersey offense.
Advantage: Hurricanes
Devils Defense Versus Hurricanes Offense (five-on-five)
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Hurricanes’ offense and the Devils’ defense, in key areas entering the series:
| Hurricanes (league ranking) | Devils (league ranking) | |
| Goals (for/against) | 2.67 (7th) | 2.27 (11th) |
| Shots (for/against) | 30.62 (2nd) | 25.56 (7th) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 70.83 (1st) | 55.86 (7th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 3.03 (1st) | 2.38 (10th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 32.32 (1st) | 24.68 (8th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 12.72 (1st) | 10.1 (10th) |
| Shooting Percentage (Hurricanes)/Save Percentage (Devils) | 8.73 (19th) | .911 (17th) |
Offensively, the Hurricanes are led by Sebastian Aho (74 points), Seth Jarvis (67 points), and Andrei Svechnikov (48 points). Jack Roslovic is third on the team in goals, at 22, he is only one of four Hurricanes to hit the 20 goal mark this season. Midseason acquisition, Taylor Hall, has fit in with Carolina well, posting 18 points in 31 games.
As has been the trademark of Rod Brind’Amour‘s Hurricanes teams is their ability to generate a ton of quantity. They are the league’s best team at five-on-five in generating offense, as the above chart shows. The issue for the Hurricanes sometimes, as it has been in season’s past, is the ability to finish off those chances. Carolina’s five-on-five shooting percentage only ranks 19th. According to Money Puck, Carolina’s -25.45 goals scored above expected is the fourth-lowest figure in the NHL.
The Devils’ defense should be a formidable opponent for this lethal Carolina defense. At five-on-five, they grade out in the top 10 in all the area the Hurricanes rank among the league’s best. However, the subtraction of stud defensive defenseman, Jonas Siegenthaler, will loom very large in this series. The Hurricanes’ offense versus the defense of the Devils will simply come down to one thing. Will the Devils’ goaltenders be able to keep Carolina’s lethal offensive generation from staying out of the net.
Advantage: Hurricanes
Special Teams
Devils Power Play Versus Hurricanes Penalty Kill
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Devils’ power play and the Hurricanes’ penalty kill, in key areas entering the series:
| Devils (league ranking) | Hurricanes (league ranking) | |
| Success Rate (power play/penalty kill) | 28.2% (3rd) | 83.6% (1st) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 120.32 (1st) | 83.99 (1st) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 10.68 (3rd) | 8.03 (12th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 76.89 (1st) | 48.2 (2nd) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 33.63 (1st) | 22.06 (6th) |
| Shooting Percentage (Devils)/Save Percentage (Hurricanes) | 16.90 (12th) | .862 (6th) |
A very underrated part of the Devils’ season thus far is how elite their power play has been, even without Jack Hughes. The team ranks third in power play success rate, but the underlying metrics show that it should be even higher. The Devils are the best in the league when it comes to both quality and quantity generation with a man advantage. A slightly higher shooting percentage would have easily catapulted that unit to the best efficiency in the league.
Unfortunately, for the Devils, they will have to contend with a Carolina penalty kill that is also near the top of the league as well. By percentage, the Hurricanes narrowly beat out the Devils, killing off nearly 84% of the power plays the teams face. Under the hood, Carolina isn’t perfect defending the power play, as they are prone to give up some quality. However, unlike at five-on-five, the goaltender the Hurricanes have gotten while a man down has been superb (sixth-best team save percentage on the kill).
Not only are the Hurricanes strong at actually killing off penalties, but they are also dangerous on the counter, with the fifth-most shorthanded goals in the league. Luckily, the Devils have allowed only four shorthanded goals this season, the second-fewest in the league. However, one thing that should benefit the Devils is Carolina does take a lot of penalties, as they average about five minutes on the kill per game, the fourth-most in the league.
The power play will be key for the Devils to pull the upset. The unit has been elite all season long, that cannot change in the playoffs, despite a formidable kill on the other side.
Advantage: Devils
Hurricanes Power Play Versus Devils Penalty Kill
Here are how the two teams stack up, in terms of the Hurricanes’ power play and the Devils’ penalty kill, in key areas entering the series:
| Hurricanes (league ranking) | Devils (league ranking) | |
| Success Rate (power play/penalty kill) | 18.7% (25th) | 82.7% (2nd) |
| Corsi (for/against) | 108.87 (6th) | 94.34 (7th) |
| Expected Goals (for/against) | 7.92 (17th) | 8.1 (17th) |
| Scoring Chances (for/against) | 54.89 (19th) | 52.85 (7th) |
| High-Danger Chances (for/against) | 20.47 (27th) | 22.89 (8th) |
| Shooting Percentage (Hurricanes) / Save Percentage (Devils) | 12.01 (28th) | .858 (9th) |
Despite having an elite kill, the Hurricanes have not been strong on the power play this year. Their efficiency is 25th-best in the league, highly influenced by a porous shooting percentage (28th). The metrics indicate a better unit than a bottom-third one, however, they still aren’t special.
Unlike Carolina, the Devils don’t take a ton of penalties. They average the 13th-most penalty kill time per game. Across those minutes, they’ve been extremely strong when it comes to efficiency (2nd). Their other metrics on the man down unit are within the top 10 for the most part. Their 17th-best expected goals against while on the kill indicate some issues with allowing really high-danger chances when they do allow something. But, it remains to be seen if the Hurricanes can really take advantage of them given their average generation and below average finishing.
Special teams is the area the Devils will need to exploit to pull an upset. On the kill is another distinct advantage the Devils should have.
Advantage: Devils
Goaltending
Devils
Below is a breakdown of the Devils’ team save percentages at different strengths and against high-danger opportunities:
| Overall Save Percentage (league ranking) | High-Danger Save Percentage (league ranking) | |
| All Strengths | .898 (11th) | .806 (15th) |
| Five-On-Five | .911 (17th) | .814 (19th) |
| Penalty Kill | .858 (9th) | .750 (26th) |
As a team, the Devils own a 31.76 goals saved above expected (GSAx) between their three goaltenders this season; Jake Allen (+19.07), Jacob Markstrom (+7.80), and Nico Daws (+4.89). Markstrom’s GSAx, who figures to be the team’s starter to begin the series, ranks 30th among 98 qualified goaltenders.
The big thing for Markstrom is health. When he first returned from injury, he struggled mightily. However, outside a bad against Boston, he was able to post a save percentage above 0.917 in four of his last five games of the season. If the Devils want to have a chance in this series, he must be at his best.
If Markstrom’s play goes south, the Devils have one of the best backups in the league behind him. Jake Allen had a tremendous season for New Jersey, so much so, his overall numbers ranked among the league’s best, as his 19.07 GSAx ranked 14th in the league this season.
Against a Hurricanes team that likes to throw everything on net, and generates an absolute ton at even strength, whoever is in net for New Jersey will need to be their best. Pulling an upset starts in net.
Hurricanes
Below is a breakdown of the Hurricanes’ team save percentages at different strengths and against high-danger opportunities:
| Overall Save Percentage (league ranking) | High-Danger Save Percentage (league ranking) | |
| Overall Save Percentage (league ranking) | .888 (24th) | .827 (3rd) |
| Five-On-Five | .896 (31st) | .822 (11th) |
| Penalty Kill | .862 (6th) | .835 (2nd) |
As a team, the Hurricanes own a 15.83 goals saved above expected (GSAx) between their three goaltenders this season; Frederik Andersen (+11.47), Pyotr Kochetkov (+10.3), Dustin Tokarski (-0.28), and Spencer Martin (-5.69). Luckily, for Carolina, the team’s two goalies they will have to rely on the most combined for a GSAx of +21.77.
As the above save percentages show, for whatever reason, Hurricanes goaltenders at five-on-five struggled immensely this season. While on the penalty kill they actually were quite good, but, at five-on-five they struggled tremendously.
Another interesting aspect is how strong Carolina’s goalies have been in the high-danger areas of the ice. Their struggles have more so been at the medium and low danger areas which is another extremely interesting development. For whatever it is worth, the Devils’ low-danger shooting percentage this year is the second-worst in the league and their medium-danger shooting percentage is the third-highest. The Hurricanes own the sixth-lowest medium-danger shooting percentage and the second-worst low-danger save percentage.
Overall, based of GSAx, the Hurricanes two main options in net have not been bad at all this season. In compared to the Devils, they have not quite been as good, but, more than serviceable.
Advantage: Devils
Head-To-Head Matchups
| Devils | Hurricanes | Ratio | |
| Goals | 12 | 13 | 52.00 in favor of CAR |
| Shots | 93 | 125 | 57.34 in favor of CAR |
| Corsi | 179 | 233 | 56.55 in favor of CAR |
| Expected Goals | 8.78 | 9.3 | 51.45 in favor of CAR |
| Scoring Chances | 91 | 100 | 52.36 in favor of CAR |
| High-Danger Chances | 38 | 37 | 50.67 in favor of NJ |
| Save Percentage | .896 | .871 | – |
| Power Play | 3-for-8 | 2-for-9 | – |
| Penalty Kill | 7-for-9 | 5-for-8 | – |
In 2024-25, the Devils and Hurricanes faced off four times, with the last being December 28. Here are the results:
- 4-2 Carolina; Oct. 15 (at Carolina)
- 4-2 New Jersey; Nov. 21 (at New Jersey)
- 4-2 New Jersey; Dec. 27 (at New Jersey)
- 5-2 Carolina; Dec. 28 (at Carolina)
The season series was very even just looking at the result. Each team won two games, and every game finished the same score outside the last one which was a 5-2 decision instead of 4-2, like the other three.
Deeper dive into the result show Carolina was the slightly better team at five-on-five while the Devils dominated special teams and had the advantage in goal. Interestingly enough, if the Devils want to win this series, they’ll have to use the exact recipe they utilized to take two of four from Carolina in the regular season. Additionally, if they are able to play at the level they did at five-on-five as they did in the short four game season series, their chances at an upset will increase tremendously, as everything above indicates that Carolina should have a heavier advantage at even strength.
Bottom line, the season series contests played against these teams were very close. Carolina was the slightly better team overall, as the deciding factor between winning only two games versus all four was in net.
Advantage: Hurricanes
Final Thoughts
There is a reason the Hurricanes are the largest favorite of any team in the first round. The Devils are still banged up, despite being set to get back star defenseman Dougie Hamilton. Not to mention, five-on-five play projects out to be a huge advantage for Carolina.
If New Jersey wants to pull an upset, they’ll have to hope for a similar outcome to the season series. Lean on an elite power play, shut the door on the penalty kill, and take advantage of poor even strength goaltending by Carolina.
Regardless, you never know until the games are actually played. For whatever it is worth, both teams were scuffling down the stretch, as Carolina finished the season losers of seven of their last eight. Meanwhile, New Jersey dropped four of their last five.
For all first round coverage, stay tuned to our social media pages. To read out full staff’s predictions, click here. If you want to get a shoutout on our social media pages, join our bracket contest and finish in first place. Link for that can be found here.