Playoff hockey is back! The New Jersey Devils are set to take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning Sunday. How does our staff here at Devils Army Blog see the outcome of the series turning out? Read below to find out.
Note, make sure to join our communities bracket pool! Winner gets a shootout on our social media pages. Link to join is here.
Tommy Zilinski; Founder
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
This is a series that favors the Hurricanes on paper, and I agree that the Hurricanes will ultimately prevail, but I anticipate games to be close. The Devils enter the series the more well-rested team, although injuries to key players Jack Hughes and Jonas Seigenthaler leave the Devils vulnerable in a few areas. The re-addition of Dougie Hamilton will give the Devils some extra offensive punch on the back end and power play.
The Hurricanes enter the series having lost seven of their last eight games, while the Devils have also struggled down the stretch. Since the Christmas break, the Devils have been unable to find consistency in nearly every aspect of their game. They have stepped up to the plate in big games with big implications (specifically, the two games against Columbus and the game against the Rangers) to secure their playoff position, and they have shown they can play great hockey when it matters most.
The Devils should have the goaltending edge which could buy them a game or two. Carolina has the slight edge in special teams, are much better at five-on-five, and have a coach that has proven to react quickly and adjust strategies where needed, which head coach Sheldon Keefe appears to have opportunities with.
Eventually, the Hurricanes will wear the Devils down and take the edge in multiple one goal games. They’ll defeat the Devils in 6 games to move on to the second round.
Matt Cook; Head of Social
Prediction: Devils in 7
Analysis:
Both of these teams have been below average in the month of April leading into the playoffs (NJ: 2-4, CAR: 2-6-1). I think it will ultimately be New Jersey’s special teams and defensive structure that gets them through the series.
James Villani; Chief Editor/Of Operations
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
You’ll be able to read my full, in-depth series preview on Sunday!
But, for now, the bottom line is this series comes down to goaltending and special teams for New Jersey. Five-on-five heavily favors Carolina, especially with New Jersey’s injuries. If they want to pull off this massive upset, they’ll have to hope the Hurricanes’ goaltending fails them, as it has all season, and the elite Devils special teams stay elite and take advantage of a Hurricanes team that takes a ton of penalties.
Ultimately, the Devils need too many things to go right for them to pull the upset. They need their goaltending to be at their best, exploit the Hurricanes while on special teams, and hope Carolina’s goaltending falters. Given this long list, including the fact the Hurricanes have an elite penalty kill of their own, an upset seems unlikely.
Jacob Goren; Writer
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
I really don’t think this matchup is as lopsided as many Devils fans are expecting. The Canes are the better team for sure, especially since the Devils will be without their best player in Jack Hughes, and best defensive defenseman in Jonas Siegenthaler. There’s a case study I want to examine, however, that could be a path to a deep playoff run in Jersey: the 2023-24 Rangers. That team won the President’s Trophy and went to the Eastern Conference finals.
In the regular season, their five-on-five numbers were middle of the pack, but in the playoffs? They were near the bottom. They held a 44.60 corsi-for percentage (CF%) which ranked 15th of 16 playoff teams and a 43.47 expected goals percentage (xG%) which ranked 14th of 16. The two numbers that carried them were their total special teams percentage (TST%), which ranked third in the postseason at 108.2% and goals saved above expected (GSAx), which ranked second at 11.93. Those statistics had similar ranks to where the team was at in the regular season. Why do I bring all of this up? The Devils rank first in TST% and seventh in GSAx. The Rangers, by the way, ranked seventh in GSAx during the regular season last year.
With all that being said, I do think Carolina is a task too tall for the Devils. They’re first in both CF% and xG% while the Devils sit at a still respectable, but not fantastic 9th and 12th. Jacob Markstrom (or Jake Allen) would most likely need to go off for the Devils to win this and while I think they’re capable of doing that, I wouldn’t bet on it against a team like the Hurricanes.
Tommy Bennett; Writer
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
I don’t think this series is going to be as lopsided as some may think. The Hurricanes systematically are one of the best teams in the league. They play with good defensive structure and are a machine and controlling the play and generating quality chances. But there is a path for the Devils to actually win the series.
It’s the same song and dance when it comes to the Hurricanes. Will depth scoring behind Sebastian Aho shine through? Will the goaltending be stable? It’s two things that have burned them in the past.
The Hurricanes goaltending is a massive question mark. Despite controlling the play more often than not, the goaltending has lost them games. Look at their recent game against the Maple Leafs. If the Devils can capitalize on the chances they do get, they’ll be in great shape.
Also, Jacob Markstrom standing tall and on his head would go a very long ways for the Devils in this series. If he is at his best, there is a chance. However, at the end, I think the Hurricanes systematically help prevail in this series.
Kyle Loughran; Writer
Prediction: Hurricanes in 5
Analysis:
Unfortunately for New Jersey, Carolina is the stronger team, and I believe the series will ultimately reflect that. The Hurricanes lead the league in Corsi-for percentage (CF%) and expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) at five-on-five. The Devils are a respectable 8th and 10th in these categories, but Carolina will likely control play at even strength.
That means the Devils will need to rely on goaltending and special teams to cause an upset. Unfortunately for New Jersey, though, Carolina’s penalty kill leads the league at 83.6%. The Devils’ second-ranked penalty kill should be able to control the Hurricanes’ 25th-ranked power play (18.7%), but their own 28.2% power play may not be able to take enough advantage at the other end.
In net is truly the Devils’ biggest advantage. Despite an up-and-down year at times, Jacob Markstrom at his best is easily the best netminder on either team.
However, Markstrom’s “Achilles Heel” has been his low-danger save percentage. Of 61 goalies to play at least 20 games this season, Markstrom ranks 47th with a .959 low-danger save percentage, per MoneyPuck.com. That is over a full percentage point below his .972 expected low-danger save percentage.
Markstrom’s low-danger save percentage is still a touch higher than Carolina’s Frederick Andersen who ranks 51st (.958), but with New Jersey likely to need Markstrom to steal a game or two against a Carolina team that loves to throw pucks on net from low-percentage areas, a soft goal against could be crucial.
Ultimately, without Jack Hughes or Jonas Siegenthaler, and Dougie Hamilton only just returning from injury, I don’t think the Devils have enough to take down a Hurricanes squad that has troubled them over recent years.
Anthony Barberio; Writer/Social
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
I love the New Jersey Devils and will always root for the New Jersey Devils. My optimism always gets the best of me, like when I assume every lottery ticket I buy will be a winner or that Dua Lipa will finally answer my insta DMs. However, the realist in me is saying the Hurricanes will emerge victorious in this round one series.
As much as I’d love the Devils to surprise the hockey world with an upset there’s really no way you can argue Carolina isn’t the more skilled team. In their regular season series each team won two games a piece. I don’t want to give the obvious answer, but it’s going to be hard to replace Jack Hughes offensive production. In those four meetings he had one goal and four assists, although he was held scoreless in the final game which was a 5-2 loss against the Hurricanes on December 28.
I do think the Devils will take two from the Hurricanes. Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are having career years in Hughes absence and should light at least enough offense to be competitive. Hamilton’s re-entry into the lineup, while a potential defensive liability, could help the offense as well. Plus, this Devils team is better coached and has better goaltending than that 2022-2023 team that lost in five games in the second round to Carolina.
The Hurricanes have had playoff collapses of recent memory so would anyone really be surprised if the series result has the Devils winning two? The Devils are 1-4 historically in playoff series against the Hurricanes. Unfortunately, I don’t see them adding that elusive second series victory this season.
Matt McCrohan; Writer, Updater
Prediction: Devils in 6
Analysis:
Hurricanes remain an incredibly formidable opponent and will forecheck hard early and often, but they feel a bit weaker this year than previously. Their, “shoot from everywhere,” mentality may actually help ‘Marky’ get a feel for the puck early and get in a groove. Carolina’s weak point is between the pipes, and I think that costs them in this series.
Joe Palma; Systems
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
Analysis:
While I don’t think this series will be as one sided as some fans think, I still believe Hurricanes will take the series. My biggest hesitation comes with goaltending. Can Jacob Markstrom bounce back from his injury? Another worry is finishing. While the Devils have been better at finishing the last month or so, they’re still without their best forward in Jack Hughes. This will be a tough matchup no matter how you look at it.
Garrett Zirkman; Updater
Prediction: Hurricanes in 4
Analysis:
I don’t think this team has proved that they can score and I would be pleasantly surprised if we won a game.