The New Jersey Devils went overseas to Prague and couldn’t have looked better in back-to-back wins over the Buffalo Sabres on Friday and Saturday, respectively. After last season’s letdown, and plenty of new faves arriving in 2023-24, many fans were likely concerned. Those concerns, at least for now, were suppressed.
The core forward group was never going anywhere and Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Co. delivered in the two wins. Perhaps the biggest question mark was always going to be the defense. Now, instead of there being a question of how the blue line will perform, it’s who will be the six-or-seven defensemen moving forward.
Dougie Hamilton returned from injury and looked great in his usual role on the top pair and first power play unit. The Devils entered the season missing two key players: newly-signed Brett Pesce and Luke Hughes. We know Hughes is a ways away from returning and could be back toward the beginning of November. Meanwhile, Pesce can be back any day.
Either way, both Pesce and Hughes will be back in the lineup together within the next month or so. As that happens, head coach Sheldon Keefe and general manager Tom Fitzgerald will have tough decisions to make.
Two New Additions Shine in Prague
The reason for this tough decision is the play of defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic and rookie Seamus Casey, both of whom contributed in big ways in the opening wins. Kovacevic was brought in via trade with the Montreal Canadiens to add depth. After two games, it will be difficult to take him out of the lineup.
He scored and had an assist in the 4-1 win on Friday. Kovacevic averaged 22:06 of ice time in those two wins. He also was first among Devils’ defensemen in Corsi-for percentage (CF%). If Kovacevic was expected to be an everyday player on the bottom pairing, you’d think Keefe and Fitzgerald would be extremely thrilled. But, that may not even be the case once Pesce and Hughes return.
As for Casey, he wasn’t expected to be in the opening night lineup but injuries and a strong preseason forced the Devils’ hand. As the Devils’ top prospect, expectations were high for Casey but that didn’t mean anyone thought he’d contribute at the NHL level this season. Casey could very well play a few more games and go down to the AHL once Pesce is ready to return. But from what we saw in the first two games, Casey doesn’t look out of place at all. Despite the poor on-ice metrics, the tools he flashed in only two games appear to be all there.
Casey only played an average of 12:41 and had one of the worst CF% (31.82) and expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) on the team across the two games. However, he did look very composed and made good exit passes to start the breakout. His skating looks to be at an NHL level and there’s no question he has immense offensive upside.
In the second game, he skated over 3:00 on the power play and scored his first NHL goal on a great move that showed patience and his ability to shoot. We’ll see if Casey can keep this up and if Keefe decides to give him an expanded role. Regardless, the future seems extremely bright for the young defenseman.
What Should the Devils Do?
At some point when Luke Hughes is back, the Devils will have eight NHL defensemen for six starting spots (or seven if the Devils chose to run 11 forwards and seven defensemen). It’s one of those “happy accidents” TV artist Bob Ross would always mention during his show. New Jersey didn’t plan on going into the season with this type of logjam on the blue line, but it’s not a bad situation to be in considering what we saw at defense last season. Lack of defensive depth last season is why Luke Hughes and Nemec were thrust into roles and situations they likely weren’t ready for at such a young age with little experience.
The Short-Term Outlook
The most likely scenario is Casey ends up going down to the AHL; either before his 11th game played (entry-level slide rule permits players in 10 games before burning a season) or whenever Pesce is ready to return. This would pose an interesting question, as either Nemec, Pesce, or Kovacevic would need to play on their off-side. Including Hamilton, the Devils would have four right-handed defenseman in the lineup. Granted, Casey is a right-handed defenseman as well playing on his off-side in game one and two.
It’ll be much easier when Luke Hughes is ready to go. Hughes, being a left-handed defenseman, would finish out the team’s left side with himself, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Brenden Dillon. It would come down to the right where you have Hamilton, Pesce, and either Nemec or Kovacevic rounding out the bottom pair on the right side.
The Long-Term Issues
Outside of all that, when we look at the long-term scope, it presents a problem. Hamilton, Brenden Dillon, Pesce, and Siegenthaler are all signed through 2026-27. Luke Hughes will need a new contract after this season. Nemec will need a new deal after the following season. That’s six defensemen who you would think will be signed long-term and make up the blue line for the foreseeable future. That would leave Casey out of the picture unless a move is made. Given the money that was just invested in Dillon and Pesce, you’d think neither of them are going anywhere.
Hamilton has had health issues but when healthy is a top NHL defenseman. His contract is likely immovable as well. All of this and we also have to consider the Devils’ most recent first-round pick was Russian defenseman Anton Silayev. He may not join the team anytime soon (contract is up after the 2025-26 season), but again, we’re thinking long term here.
The Devils could look to move on from Siegenthaler after this season and deal him during the summer. We saw general manager Tom Fitzgerald move John Marino after a down season last year and he was making slightly more than Siegenthaler’s $3.4 million cap hit. That would clear the way for Casey to be a regular NHL player for 2025-26.
The other scenario is the Devils look to trade Nemec in what would be a big move to potentially acquire more forward help or a goaltender of the future (Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen are both aging). Especially with Nemec due a likely large payday after next season.
Of course, he could very well develop into a top-pairing defenseman and the Devils can move around funds to ensure they add him to the mix for years to come, especially with Dougie Hamilton’s contract expiring after the 2027-28 season when Nemec would potentially be ready for a second pay day after a hypothetically bridge deal ends.
Final Thoughts
For now, the Devils are in a very good position of strength on the blue line for this season. No matter what Fitzgerald and Keefe decide to do with the roster and defense, it feels like the six or seven that will be on the ice will almost always be an above-average group.
New Jersey needed to get tougher and bigger on the blue line and that’s exactly the case, at least through two games. The forward group and goaltending from Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen looked very solid. So expect the defense to be the developing story we track as the season progresses and the Devils get healthier.
When things get really interesting will be after this season. Younger players will be ready to be everyday guys (Casey), and others in the pipeline will continue to progress (Silayev). Not to mention, the team will need to give new contracts to other young defensemen in the coming years (Hughes and Nemec). It’s certainly a good problem to have, but will not be easy to navigate.