Earlier in the offseason, the New Jersey Devils finally made a deal with the Calgary Flames for goaltender Jacob Markstrom, the final piece in the goaltending puzzle for next season. General manager Tom Fitzgerald had long been chasing the 34-year-old netminder but couldn’t make a trade stick at the deadline. After waiting a bit longer than he would have liked, Fitzgerald has secured the heavyweight starter the Devils needed; all for the relatively low cost of a top-10 protected 2025 first-round pick and defenseman Kevin Bahl. Additionally, Calgary will retain 31.25% of Markstrom’s salary, bringing his cap hit down to $4.125 million.

But, Fitzgerald didn’t conjure this trade out of thin air, it’s been years in the making, dating back to before his tenure. This trade happened in part thanks to the most impactful butterfly effect guiding the Devils today. The Taylor Hall trade of 2019 still looms large almost five years later, and much of the Devils’ core can be traced back to the deal that sent the only Hart Trophy winner in franchise history to the Arizona Coyotes.

We last updated you on this butterfly effect in 2022 but this time, we’ll dive deeper into the legacy of this trade.

The Pieces Of The Puzzle

You would be forgiven if you’ve forgotten all the pieces involved in the Taylor Hall trade, it’s been five years after all. Here’s a quick summary of the trade:

Devils receive:	Coyotes receive:
Kevin Bahl (D)	Taylor Hall (F)
Nick Merkley (F)	Blake Speers (F)
Nate Schnarr (F)
Conditional 2020 first-round pick
Conditional 2021 third-round pick

The 2020 first-round pick turned into forward Dawson Mercer while the third-round pick turned into Jonas Siegenthaler via a trade with the Washington Capitals.

Where Are They Now?

Coyotes’ Side

Let’s start with the easier side of the trade. Taylor Hall ended up being a rental for Arizona before he hit unrestricted free agency that summer. He then signed a one-year deal with the Buffalo Sabres. He was then traded to Boston in April of 2021, where he signed a four-year contract extension before being traded to the Chicago Blackhawks last offseason.

He is entering the last year of his current deal. Although Hall has been involved in two trades since the deal that sent him to Arizona, we won’t cover them here because they happened after he left the Coyotes as an unrestricted free agent, effectively ending his part of the butterfly effect.

Blake Speers didn’t make much of an impact either. He played two games for the Coyotes and bounced around their minor league system for a bit. Arizona signed him to two one-year deals in the years after the trade but he left their system after his last contract expired at the end of the 2022 season. These days, he plays for the Belfast Giants of the EIHL.

Devils’ Side

Kevin Bahl/Jacob Markstrom

Kevin Bahl was the only near-NHL-ready player the Devils received in the trade but for a long time, he was an auxiliary piece compared to the players New Jersey got out of the draft picks. Now, Bahl may end up being the most important part of the trade.

During his time in New Jersey, Bahl morphed from an expendable bottom-pairing big and at times was forced to play a key piece to the bottom four. After three years of cups of coffee in the NHL, he hit his peak last year, playing in all 82 games.

Bahl filled important gaps in the Devils’ injury-riddled lineup last year, filling in for the injured Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler. He tended to be hot and cold but provided a steady defensive presence at his best, putting his six-foot-six, 230-pound frame to good use.

He notched a respectable 52.25 expected goal percentage (xG%) last season. Though, even with the strong defensive metrics, he struggled in transition and often struggled clearing the defensive zone.

Bahl’s time in New Jersey isn’t what’s important now, it’s what his exit might accomplish. Jacob Markstrom is a proven NHL starter with 14 years of experience. At age 34, Markstrom may be past his prime years but he was stellar last season, posting a 28.93 goals saved above expected (GSAx) according to Evolving Hockey.

Markstrom has two years remaining on his contract, and with Calgary’s salary retention, he commands a very reasonable cap hit. Even if Markstrom is a flop, his modest contract won’t impede the rest of the roster; but based on their track records, Markstrom and Jake Allen might just be the veteran tandem New Jersey needs to finally get consistent goaltending.

Dawson Mercer

Not much has changed for Dawson Mercer since the last update, so we’ll stick to reviewing his most recent campaign. Mercer had a down year in 2023-24, scoring 16 goals and notching 26 points in 82 games. His underlying numbers once again painted a picture of a solid offensive driver but lackluster in his own end. Though good games didn’t come easily for Mercer, he played all 82 for a third-straight season. This durability made him the ultimate lineup filler, and he swapped between lines often.

I’m optimistic about Mercer. Next year should be less hectic in terms of injuries and line changes, so he will get a chance to develop chemistry with a set line which should yield better results, especially for a hot-and-cold guy like he appears to be.

Depending on who Fitzgerald goes after in free agency, he might even get a long-term shot at the top-six, though he’ll most likely be a middle-six player next year. He also has that durability factor, which will always add to his value. Mercer is a restricted free agent as of now, and signing him to a bridge deal or long-term contract will be near the top of Fitzgerald’s to-do list this offseason.

Jonas Siegenthaler

Same story for Jonas Siegenthaler, he’s still on the team so we’ll cover recent events. Siegenthaler was one of the best defensive defensemen in the game during his first two seasons with the Devils, ranking near the 100th percentile for defensive WAR. As a result, general manager Tom Fitzgerald signed him to a five-year contract extension in July of 2022, which kicked in this past year.

At the time, the deal was seen as one of the best on the team, a true anchor for the defense in the years to come at a reasonable $3.4 million cap hit, especially because he proved himself after the signing in the final year of his old contract.

But, like Mercer, Siegenthaler had a down year last season. His trademark defensive intuition all but disappeared and he battled through injuries, including a broken foot. Why his game took a sudden downturn is a mystery, though Dougie Hamilton’s absence might have something to do with it; the pair were perfect foils for each other.

Although Siegenthaler was hard to watch last season, there is still room for optimism. If the prior two years are anything to go off of, Siegenthaler can find that defensive prowess again, especially with a fully loaded roster. 

Digging Deeper: Arizona’s third-round pick

Siegenthaler’s end of the butterfly effect doesn’t stop with him, the Devils sent Arizona’s 2021 third-round pick to Washington for him. The Capitals traded that pick to the New York Rangers in exchange for their 2021 third and sixth-round picks. 

Using Arizona’s pick (which had been through four teams at that point), the Rangers selected center Ryder Korczak. Korczak posted impressive point totals of 79 and 69 over two seasons for the WHL’s Moose Jaw Warriors before joining New York’s AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack last season, where he notched 20 points. He is entering the final year of his entry-level contract this year.

The Capitals selected defenseman Brent Johnson with the Rangers’ third-round pick and defenseman Dru Krebs with their sixth-round pick. Neither have signed their entry-level deals as of writing. Johnson is entering his senior year at Ohio State after transferring from North Dakota. Krebs plays for the Medicine Hat Tigers of the WHL. 

Nick Merkley

Nick Merkley played 27 games for Jersey in 2020-21 before he was traded to the San Jose Sharks that offseason for Christian Jaros. Jaros played 11 games for the Devils before he refused a demotion to the AHL, cleared waivers, and signed a contract with Avangard Omsk of the KHL. 

Merkley played nine games for the Sharks but spent most of his tenure there playing for their AHL affiliate San Jose Barracuda. San Jose traded him to the Rangers in March 2022 for defenseman Anthony Bitetto. He played out the rest of the 2021-22 season for the Rangers’ AHL affiliate before his contract expired. He now plays for the KHL’s Dinamo Minsk. 

Bitetto, who had previously played short stints on the Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, and New York Rangers played out the rest of that season with San Jose’s AHL affiliate and signed a minor-league deal with the Florida Panthers for the next season. He played 68 games for the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers in 2022-23 and retired after that season at age 33. 

Nate Schnarr

Nate Schnarr played exclusively for the Binghamton Devils/Utica Comets during his time in the Devils’ organization. He was traded to the Montreal Canadiens for goaltender Andrew Hammond in March of 2022. Hammond had an infamous run with Jersey and played two games with the KHL’s Traktor Chelyabinsk before retiring.

The Canadiens traded Schnarr to the Los Angeles Kings in March of 2023 for defenseman Frédéric Allard. Allard played five games for Montreal’s AHL affiliate Laval Rocket before his contract expired at the end of that season. He now plays for the Swedish Hockey League’s Luleå HF. Schnarr played 18 games for the King’s AHL affiliate Ontario Reign before his contract expired at the end of that season. He played last season for the Finnish Liga’s Pelicans and will play next season for the Liga’s JYP.

Summary

Aren’t butterfly effects fun? Every trade is an open case, and attentive fans are the detectives of the chain reaction. The Taylor Hall trade in particular has had huge ramifications because of all the moving parts.

Not only has it led to Devils’ regulars Dawson Mercer and Jonas Siegenthaler and future star Jacob Markstrom, but it also led to a cascade of backroom prospect trades. Though it started with the Devils and Coyotes (who have since moved and will change names, by the way), the Hall butterfly effect has directly touched six other NHL teams, four AHL teams, and one WHL team. Bonus points to the Rangers for being part of the butterfly effect on two occasions.

The Taylor Hall butterfly effect is far from over. Kevin Bahl, Dawson Mercer, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Jacob Markstrom are the biggest assets still part of it, guaranteeing its survival for years to come. The next version of this article is going to be a nightmare to research.