Well, folks, the 2022-2023 New Jersey Devils’ season is officially halfway over. Given preseason expectations, fans and Devils’ management have to be thrilled with where the team currently stands.
As of today, the Devils are 29-12-3, which is good for second in the Metropolitan Division (one point behind Carolina). New Jersey also has a 11-point buffer from the first team outside a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and they have the third-most points in the league.
With all that being said, what are some observations that can be made from the first half of the season?
10. Miles Wood Is Feeling The Ill-Effects Of Missing A Year
There haven’t been many Devils’ players who have played poorly. However, one individual that has noticeably struggled happens to be the same individual who missed just about all of last season.
Miles Wood only has 16 points in 43 games. He owns an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) rating of minus-5.4 which is last on the team. This figure also ranks 489th of 500 qualified forwards in the NHL this season. He has been struggling mightily.
With all this being said, it is not exactly surprising given, as mentioned above, that Wood basically missed all of last season due to hip surgery. Especially given the way he plays.
Wood does not need to be the borderline 20-goal scorer like he once was. Though, if he can start to produce just a little more, the Devils’ depth would be much better for it.
9. Alexander Holtz Has Struggled Mightily
Entering the season, the Devils’ 2020 seventh-overall pick had sky-high expectations. Especially after an impressive preseason where he totaled three points in only five games, while maintaining strong underlying metrics. Despite this, it certainly has not gone to plan for the Swedish rookie.
Holtz only has four points (three goals) in 18 games. When he does play, which is only on occasion, due to often finding himself as a healthy scratch, he only plays about 10 minutes a night. During this little time, he’s posted a goals above replacement (GAR) of minus-1.4, which ranks 19th of 22 Devils.
With all that being said, Holtz has not exactly been set up to succeed. His style reflects more of someone needing a center that generates opportunities for him to finish. Michael McLeod and Jesper Boqvist are not exactly that, and when he played with Jack Hughes in the top six, that seventh-overall pedigree showed.
8. Nathan Bastian Has Been Missed Dearly
A couple season ago, who would have thought this would have been on this list. On November 25, Bastian suffered an upper-body injury and since has been out of action. Luckily, it appears his return is coming very soon.
Just how good has Bastian been? As the above chart depicts, he was playing like one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL before his injury. His defensive GAR rating of 3.4 still ranks tops on the Devils. When looking at this rating per 60 minutes, he leads the NHL among 579 skaters with at least 280 minutes played.
This is not a fluke either, Bastian graded out very well defensively last year as well. Last season, his defensive metrics, per Evolving Hockey, ranked in the league’s 93rd percentile. Overall, Bastian is an extremely reliable defensive player.
Not to mention, the six-foot-four winger is also desperately missed on the power play. He served as the net-front presence on that unit, dating back to last year, very effectively. He also gives the Devils much-needed depth.
It may not of seemed like it at first, but believe it or not, it is not crazy to say that Bastian is one of the better fourth liners in the NHL.
7. Tomas Tatar Is Having A Terrific Bounce-Back Season
If the Devils gave out a ‘Most Improved Player’ award like the NFL does, Tomas Tatar would be the odds-on favorite to receive it. The 32-year-old veteran has a respectable 10 goals and 17 assists in only 44 games. Over 82 games, he is on pace for 19 goals and 50 points. This would be his highest-season point total since 2019-20.
Not only do his traditional statistics paint a strong picture, but his analytics are even more flattering. Per Dom Luszczyszyn’s game score valued added (GSVA) metric, Tatar’s 1.9 rating ranks him in the ‘top player’ category. Furthermore, as the above chart depicts, both Tatar’s offensive and defensive on-ice impacts are extremely strong. Thus, the overall percentile of 91.
Further evidence of Tatar’s improvement year-over-year can be seen by the below chart:
| 2021-22 | 2022-21 | |
| Scoring (82-game pace) | 32 (16 goals, 16 assists) | 50 (19 goals, 32 assists) |
| GAR | -3.5 | 8.2 |
| xGAR | 1.6 | 7.8 |
| EH Total Percentile Ranking | 15th | 91st |
Each of the above are eye-popping changes. In 28 fewer games this season, Tatar is only three points away from matching his point total from all of last year. Also, a 11.7-point improvement in GAR year-over-year is an absurd change. Finally, ranking in the league’s 91st percentile in overall on-ice metrics is an impressive feat, no matter the history.
6. Vitek Vanecek Has Emerged As A True Number One
It’s no secret what the Devils’ main issue was last season. Last year, the Devils ranked 31st in both total save percentage (.881) and high-danger save percentage (.761). This year, the team ranks 13th in total save percentage (.906) and 16th in high-danger save percentage (.819).
These equate to an increases of .025 and .058. Each huge changes and rival only the Seattle Kraken as the largest increases in the league. Why the turnaround? Simple, the acquisition of Vitek Vanecek.
Vanecek was acquired in exchange for a second and third-round pick during the off-season. So far, he has produced an 18-5-2 record and .914 save percentage. His goals saved above expected (GSAx) of 9.35 ranks 11th of 78 goaltenders that have appeared in a game this season. Last season, the highest-ranked Devils’ goalie (who played at least five games) ranked 98th of 118.
Before the season, several believed that New Jersey just needed above-average goaltending to be competitive this season. Well, Vitek Vanecek is giving the Devils a lot better than that right now, and look where the team is.
5. Last Off-Season Was A Huge Success
General manager Tom Fitzgerald has wrongly taken a lot of criticism during his tenure. Manning a rebuild that has seemingly lasted longer than a decade is not an easy job. But, returns halfway through the season point to the 2021-22 off-season as an extreme success.
Here are how some of the notable Devils’ off-season acquisitions have faired so far this season:
- Vitek Vanecek: 11th of 78 goalies in the NHL in GSAx.
- Brendan Smith: 68th percentile ranking in defensive metrics.
- John Marino: 83rd percentile ranking in defensive metrics.
The other two notable acquisitions were Ondrej Palat (who just returned from injury but has looked sharp) and Erik Haula (who, despite his struggles in the top six, is a strong third-line center).
Overall, as you can see, most of the individuals that Fitzgerald has brought in have performed extremely well.
4. Erik Haula Is Not A Top-Six Forward
Erik Haula may be rivaling Damon Severson as the most highly-scrutinized player on the roster. Though, unlike with Severson, the scrutiny is more deserved, not that it is entirely his fault.
Playing almost exclusively in the top six alongside Jack Hughes, Haula has totaled only 20 points (three goals) in 44 games. He is shooting a woeful, and career-low, 3.6 percent, which is one of the worst figures in the NHL. Lastly, his xGAR of minus-4.1 is second worst on the team (just ahead of Miles Wood).
With all that being said, it appears head coach Lindy Ruff is finally moving Haula back down to the bottom six. More and more we are seeing Ondrej Palat or Yegor Sharangovich alongside Hughes.
And, with that, Haula will hopefully now be able to thrive in a role he is a much better fit for. A possession-driving, third-line center who excels in the faceoff circle and can provide strong play on the penalty kill.
3. The Devils Need Another Goal Scorer
When the Devils scuffled in December, losing six in a row and eight of nine, a main reason why was the lack of finishing. During this 1-7-1 stretch, the Devils shot 6.31 percent, 30th in the NHL. The 27 games before the slide began, New Jersey owned a 21-5-1 record and shot 10.62 percent, 10th best. With all that said, the Devils’ shooting percentage currently sits at a meager 24th best in the league.
Now, shooting percentage is not exactly a great statistic to put all your stock into. Several different factors go into it, some of which depend on generic luck. Though, at the end of the day, it does usually detail a team’s finishing ability. That’s why a 24th ranking, and a 1-7-1 stretch where it was arguably the main culprit, does not bode well going forward.
One way to increase a team’s finishing ability during the the season is via trade. Given where the Devils currently sit, the trade deadline should be an exciting one. And, for the first time in a while, it’ll be exciting due to the players the Devils may be acquiring rather than the return they’ll be getting for their own.
Some of the top names to monitor are Timo Meier (SJ), Vladimir Tarasenko (STL), Anthony Duclair (FLA), and James van Riemsdyk (PHI), among others.
2. Jack Hughes Is A Superstar
There are not enough words to describe the level of a hockey player Jack Hughes has turned into this season. Devils’ fans have seen it coming since he entered into the league, but this season it has came together into an explosion. And, now he is getting league-wide recognition as he was named to his second All-Star game and currently has the third-best odds to win the Hart Trophy (league MVP).
Through 44 games, Hughes has 29 goals and 26 assists. He is on pace for 54 goals, 48 assists, and 102 points over 82 games. The goal total and point total would each break franchise records. Additionally, since 2000, 54 goals would be the second most any 21 year old has ever scored in a season. Hughes is enduring a historically terrific season that can potentially shatter all kinds of team and league records.
If the traditional statistics aren’t enough, the analytics are somehow just as impressive. His total GAR of 17.7 is the highest figure in the league. Yes, currently higher than the likes of Connor McDavid, Auston Matthew, and David Pastrnak.
As you can see, the 2019 first-round pick has fully arrived. He is everything the Devils through they were getting and more. A bonafide superstar.
1. The Devils Are Legit
Crazy enough, the 21-4-1 start were not enough for people to believe the Devils were a legit threat. The 1-7-1 run then followed and several were playing the ‘I told you so’ game. Well, since that point, the Devils are 7-1-1 and riding a five-game win streak.
As mentioned above, this run has them one-point off the Metropolitan Division-leader Carolina Hurricanes. New Jersey also has the third-most points in the NHL and the second-best goal differential in the league at a plus-40. Lastly, per FanDuel Sportsbook, they are listed with -4500 (97.83 percent) odds to make the playoffs.
The numbers back up the current record and projections that this might be the first Devils’ team to make the playoffs since 2018. Traditional statistics wise, the team ranks sixth in goals per game, fourth in goals against per game, fourth in shots per game, and second in shots against per game.
Analytically is really where the point of how good the Devils are gets across. Here are where the Devils rank in several important possession categories (at five-on-five):
- Shot-Attempt Differential: 2nd
- Scoring-Chance Differential: 2nd
- High-Danger Chance Differential: 1st
- Expected Goals-For Percentage: 2nd
The above rankings, coupled with the chart further up, shows just how potent New Jersey really is overall. To add to this, they are getting strong goaltending and have a foursome of elite contributors in Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hishier, and Jesper Bratt. The sky is the limit for this Devils’ team, and it appears they are just getting started.
Note, all the above mentioned statistics are as of the morning of January 17, 2023. Furthermore, statistics and graphs from Evolving Hockey. Some statistics also courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.