Yesterday, Ryan Novozinsky of NJ.com reported that in the coming weeks, P.K. Subban and his agent would be determining whether or not the 32-year-old defenseman wants to re-sign with New Jersey this offseason. The three-time All-Star will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his 13-year NHL career this summer. This after his eight-year, $72,000,000 contract officially expires.
Subban played out the final three years of that contract in New Jersey with a cap hit of $9,000,000, and had had mixed results to say the least. With Novozinsky’s report that Subban may be open to a reunion, it begs the question about whether or not general manager Tom Fitzgerald and the Devils should be as well.
Why Should the Devils Have Interest in Bringing Back Subban?
As mentioned above, in his three-year tenure in New Jersey, Subban had mixed results to say the least. His on-ice performance dipped considerably and certainly did not live up to his $9,000,000 dollar cap hit. At $9,000,000, Subban took up just over 11% of New Jersey’s salary cap in 2021-2022. At that price, elite performance was expected, but not seen.
In 2019-2020, Subban’s first in New Jersey, the 2013 Norris Trophy winner as the NHL’s best defenseman had the worst season of his career. He tallied just 18 points in 68 games, his lowest single-season total outside of 2009-2010, where he had two assists in a two game rookie cameo. Subban’s underlying numbers were also dreadful as his -10.1 goals above replacement (GAR) was by far the worst of his career and one of the worst figures in the league as a whole.
Subban Saw a Resurgence in 2021-2022
However, for as poor as his first impression was, Subban was much better in 2021-2022. The biggest change in his game? A reduced role. Subban played over 22 minutes per game in both 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. In 2021-2022, though, Subban played just 18:18 minutes per night. On top of this, Subban had the highest offensive zone start percentage in his three seasons in New Jersey at 52.3%. This decreased defensive responsibility and more favorable matchups benefitted Subban, who is no longer able to shoulder the load he once did in Nashville and Montreal.
According to Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic, Subban’s on-ice value was also at its highest last season. Luszczyszyn’s model expresses a player’s value in terms of wins added (or subtracted) based on their Game Score Value Added (GSVA). There are a multitude of factors that impact a player’s GSVA, but at its simplest, players that perform well add wins over a season, and players that perform poorly cost their team wins, similar to a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric.
In his final season in Nashville, Subban added 0.8 wins to the Predators before being worth -0.6 and -0.1 wins in his first two seasons as a Devil, essentially costing the team wins. However, in 2021-2022, Subban was actually worth 0.7 wins. Furthermore, Subban’s GAR jumped all the way from -10.1 and -1.3 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 to a 7.0 figure last season.
That’s right. In a reduced role, Subban performed much more like the player the Devils thought they may have been getting back in the summer of 2019. Of course, still not worthy of that $9,000,000 cap-hit, but still a dependable defenseman.
On top of that, Subban appeared to be a well-respected and well-liked member of the Devils’ locker room. He also took home the King Clancy Memorial Trophy earlier this week for his charitable and humanitarian work in the community after being a finalist four of the past five seasons.
With Subban’s on-ice play improving last season and being a respected member of the locker room, it’s reasonable for the Devils to be interested in bringing him back next season at the right price. So, what could that contract look like?
A Potential Contract
Subban is coming off an eight-year, $72,000,000 contract, but he won’t earn anywhere near that on his next deal. First of all, at 32, and in the latter half of his career, Subban likely won’t receive a contract beyond two or three years. Even with his improvement in 2021-2022, Subban has still declined rapidly from his time in Montreal and Nashville. From the Devils’ point of view, it makes sense to want to avoid a long-term commitment to a third-pairing defensemen, so they would likely look for a one or two-year deal.
In terms of cap hit, Dom Luszczyszyn’s model estimated Subban’s value at $2,500,000 based on his 2021-2022 GSVA of 0.7. Obviously, negotiations will be much more nuanced than any player performance model can account for, but that seems like a reasonable ballpark. If Subban agrees to a shorter, one-year deal, he may make more than that, but conversely, a longer-term deal will carry a lower cap hit, potentially lower than $2,500,000.
Back in May, during exit interviews, Tom Fitzgerald was non-committal either way regarding a potential Subban re-signing. Speaking to Amanda Stein, Fitzgerald said “it’s an open-ended conversation.”
The clearest conclusion that can be drawn here is that re-signing Subban may happen, but it is not the team’s biggest priority. Because of that, if Subban wants more than the Devils are willing to offer, New Jersey may let him walk in free agency, even with the $25,000,000 in cap space the Devils have next season. Cap space aside, the Devils’ may hesitate to re-sign Subban to shake-up the roster after missing the playoffs for a ninth time in 10 seasons.
With all this in mind, a two-year deal at roughly $2,250,000 could make sense for both parties. If they can’t agree, Subban will test the free agent market for the first time in his career and should have some options. This includes potentially going to a cup contender for the veteran’s minimum like Mark Giordano did in Toronto last month. Meanwhile, the Devils could look internally or externally for a cheaper option to round out the defense.
Note, statistics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference.