A recent report mentioned the New Jersey Devils as a possible landing spot for Vancouver Canucks’ star forward J.T. Miller. The 29-year-old had a break-out campaign posting 99 points in only 80 games this past season. It was easily the best season of the center’s 10-year NHL career. However, given the Canucks’ current timeline, and the fact Miller’s value is at an all-time high, it appears they are trying to move him.

Just How Good is J.T. Miller?

Miller has been an extremely effective offensive-center throughout his NHL career. In most seasons, before top-line minutes, he was good for around 60 points and provided a tremendous boost to his team’s power play. This season, he shattered a previous career-high of 72 points in 69 games (2019-20 season) by compiling 99 points in only 80 games.

Miller’s underlying statistics also paint the picture of a terrific offensive player. As the above shows, over the past three seasons he ranks in the league’s 94th percentile offensively. This past season, he ranked eighth among 964 skaters in total offensive goals above replacement (GAR). His total offensive GAR of 39.7 over the past three seasons is higher than David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm, and Aleksander Barkov. There is no doubt Miller’s one of the better offensive-driving centers in the league.

The Concerns

So, what are some of the concerns? Miller is a below replacement-level player defensively. As the above player card points out, he ranks in the league’s 12th percentile defensively over the past three seasons. Over this time, Miller’s defensive GAR totals a woeful -6.2. He has also struggled big time shorthanded. To put it simply, Miller is not a good defensive player.

Furthermore, a decent bit of Miller’s production has come via the power play. This season, 45% of his assists came on the man-advantage. Now, this is not a bad thing per se. As New Jersey desperately needs help on their power play and Miller is a dominant power play presence. This also is not to say he isn’t effective at five-on-five, as 24 of his 32 goals did come at even strength. He also has always had superb five-on-five possession numbers.

Lastly, when a soon-to-be 30 year old sets a career-high that is 27 points better than his previous high, it can usually be designated as an outlier. Miller is a superb player, there is no doubt about that. However, it is more reasonable to assume he is a 70 to 80-point player rather than a 100-point player moving forward.

Why Shouldn’t New Jersey Make A Deal?

You most likely read the above and are thinking to yourself, “Why in the world shouldn’t the Devils make a deal for Miller?” Well, its simple, two huge factors:

The first is Miller is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2022-23 season. The Ohio-native signed a five-year, $5,250,000 per season deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning back in 2018 that is set to expire after this upcoming season. If New Jersey trades for Miller, and are unable to swing a new extension, they could very well be paying for a rental.

Well, can’t New Jersey just ensure he is signed before making the trade? Much easier said than done. There is no guarantee Miller would want to sign with New Jersey long-term. Furthermore, if he does, the Devils would most likely be looking at another extension that surpasses the $8,000,000 per season mark for a player that is entering his 30s. No matter how strong of a player Miller is, regression due to age is always a factor. An investment at that price is most likely not worth it.

The second argument for avoiding a Miller trade is the assets he will most likely require to bring to Newark. As is well documented, he is coming off a career-year. One that, as mentioned above, may be a bit of an outlier. Nonetheless, his value is at an all-time high. Trading for a potential rental when perceived value is as high at it is does not exactly qualify as good asset management.

Conclusion

Add the two above factors with the concerns listed further above, and trading for J.T. Miller just does not make sense for the New Jersey Devils. He is a terrific player, and one that would instantly make New Jersey better. However, it is very unlikely any package that Vancouver would request from the Devils would make sense. Especially given the fact there is a good chance Miller would only be a rental.

Note, statistics from Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Reference.