The Exposure List
It was announced early Sunday morning that the New Jersey Devils have protected the following ten players:
Forwards (7): Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood, Yegor Sharangovich, Janne Kuokkanen, Michael McLeod
Defensemen (3): Damon Severson, Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltender (1): Mackenzie Blackwood
As you can see, general manager Tom Fitzgerald chose the “7-3-1” option wisely. In doing so, he leaves the following players unprotected:
Forwards: Andreas Johnsson, Nick Merkley*, Marian Studenic*, Ben Street^, Brandon Gignac*, Nathan Bastian, Brett Seney^, AJ Greer*
Defensemen: P.K. Subban, Ryan Murray^, Will Butcher, Connor Carrick*, David Quenneville*, Matt Tennyson^, Josh Jacobs^, Colton White, Colby Sissons*
Goaltenders: Aaron Dell^, Evan Cormier*, Scott Wedgewood
Note, ^ designated an unrestricted free agent and * designates a restricted free agent.
Of those exposed player, the following met the NHL Expansion Draft’s exposure rules:
Forwards (2): Andreas Johnsson, Nathan Bastian
Defenseman (2): P.K. Subban, Will Butcher
Goaltender: Evan Cormier*, Scott Wedgewood
So, did the Devils make the right decision? Who are Seattle’s best choices? Who does it seem the new team may take?
Did The Devils Make The Right Decisions?
Forwards
The first six forwards the Devils protected were a pretty easy decision. The final spot is where it most likely got interesting, specifically the spot given to Michael McLeod. Others that were most likely in consideration for this spot were Andreas Johnsson and Nathan Bastian.
As was discussed in my previous article, Johnsson, despite the offensive struggles last season, was one of the Devils’ best defensive forwards. Of forwards, he ranked third in expected defensive goals above replacement (xDef), third in actual defensive goals above replacement (Def), and overall he ranked in the league’s 77th percentile in overall defensive metrics. When comapring he and Michael McLeod side-by-side, not only did Johnsson have better underlying numbers this past season, he also has a better track record overall. Recency bias, as well as positional value and maybe even Johnsson’s contract may have been the deciding factor.
Nathan Bastian played as your prototypical fourth line forward last year and did okay. Given his willingness to throw his body around may have made fans overate him a tad. He ranked in the league’s 36th percentile offensively and 58th percentile defensively in terms of important underlying metrics. It was a good move not protecting him. However, in comparison to Michael McLeod, his numbers are actually slightly better. Now, given McLeod is a center the Devils may have valued him higher. Nonetheless, unprotecting Bastian was the correct move.
Defensemen and Goaltenders
The defensive selections went as expected. Damon Severson and the newly acquired Ryan Graves were no-brainers. It ultimately came down to the last spot, and the recently traded for and most recently re-signed Jonas Siegenthaler got the nod. Siegenthaler only played in eight games for New Jersey last year, but showed all the signs of a dependable, bottom-pairing defensive-defenseman. The writing on the wall for Will Butcher seemed like a long time coming. He spent most of last season a healthy scratch and when he did play he struggled. It is clear the Devils’ organiztion, whether for right or wrong, do not value him all that highly.
P.K. Subban was the other noteworthy omission from the protection list. His $9,000,000 contract, which only has one-year left, may have played a role in his exposing. After struggling mightily in year one, he rebounded and did okay last season. He serves as a valuable veteran presence for a rather young team. If he is taken by Seattle the Devils would be almost $20,000,000 below the salary cap floor. This would force general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s hand in spending and making his team better this offseason.
The goalie selection comes as no surprise. Mackenzie Blackwood was protected and both Scott Wedgewood and current restricted free agent Evan Cormier meet the exposure requirement.
Seattle’s Best Options:
The Seattle Kraken are most likely looking at four options: Andreas Johnsson, Will Butcher, P.K. Subban, and Nathan Bastian. Of these four, the best overall player is Andreas Johnsson. Johnsson has two years of 40-plus point production under his belt, is only 26-years old, and established himself as very defensively reliable last season. Recency bias has Devils’ fans thinking Johnsson is not even an NHL-caliber player which is just incorrect. With two-years at $3,400,000 left on his contract, Johnsson would be a very solid get for a new Seattle team.
Will Butcher is also an intriguing option. If Seattle took him and got 2017-2020 Will Butcher they would be thrilled. Over that time period, Butcher’s play represented a terrific offensive-defenseman who held his own defensively. He was someone that could have been regarded as a number four defenseman on most teams. You can see why via the player card above. His numbers were just terrific. However, if Seattle fears they would be getting more so what his play reflected this past season, they will most likely stay away.
P.K. Subban is the most debated option on this list. At 32-years old he is well past his prime. After putting up a miserable 2019-20 season, he rebounded as was okay this past year. However, still nowhere near his $9,000,000 contract which was expected. What may intrigue Seattle about Subban is not so much his play, but two other aspects: cap-hit and marketability.
Subban brings a $9,000,000 cap hit which would help Seattle hit the cap floor which is sometimes tricky for expansion teams. In doing so, it would help them maintain flexibility as they reportedly would like as Subban’s contract just has one year left on it. As for the marketability part, be on the look-out for an article on Monday explaining that aspect.
Nathan Bastian is the last name on this list. He turned in a respectable season last year, serving as a defensive-first fourth liner that liked to play physical. He is certainly not an exciting option, but would plug a fourth line wing spot on a new team well. Bastian is also only 23-years old, re-signed to a nice contract, and has years of team control left which may also be enticing.
Who Will Seattle Take?
If Seattle wants to take the best player, and plan more for the future, Andreas Johnsson would be the best pick. He is the best all-around player on this list and would provide the most value past this upcoming season. If Seattle wishes to get creative and go the route that would help hit the cap-floor while getting an extremely marketable player for a new franchise, P.K. Subban is your guy.
Will Butcher and Nathan Bastian would also be worth consideration but do not bring the value a Johnsson or Subban would bring. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see who the New Jersey Devils lose come the July 21st NHL Expansion Draft on ESPN2.
Note, advanced statistics per Evolving-Hockey.com.