Introduction

At the beginning of an NHL season with no fans in most arenas, home-ice advantage has become almost non-existent. Considering most NHL organizations will be aiming to host fans in 2022, I wondered which teams have had the most devoted fan bases in recent history. This could be indicative of which fans will return the strongest when it is safe to do so.

With a little knowledge of hockey and cognizance of where teams are located, you can probably guess which fans are at the top of the list. But to get the full picture, we’ll look at ESPN’s average attendance statistics for regular season home games since the 2004 NHL lockout.

With so many revenue streams in sports tied to attendance, these figures can be predictive of which franchises will be the most valuable in years to come. Though teams are competing in new divisions this year to limit travel during the COVID-19 pandemic, for the purpose of this article I’ll be comparing fan bases to their 2019-20 division foes.

Metropolitan Division

First, we’ll look at the Eastern Conference division that the New Jersey Devils normally compete in, the Metropolitan Division. Looking at the graph below, you’ll notice that the Philadelphia Flyers have had the highest average attendance at home games every year except for 2016. That year, the Pittsburgh Penguins eclipsed the Flyers in average attendance on their way to back to back championships.

Our team, the New Jersey Devils, have hovered around 15,000 to 17,000 fans on average for the past fifteen years. In 2012, when the Devils made a run to the Stanley Cup Finals, the team averaged 17,114 fans per home-game. That’s just 86 less fans than the New York Rangers averaged in 2012, and they play every game in the middle of Manhattan.

New York’s companion, the Islanders, are looking forward to their new stadium, having unsuccessfully switched between the Nassau Coliseum and Barclays Center since 2015. Shockingly, the Islanders have averaged the lowest attendance in the Metro almost every year in the past fifteen. The only exception, was a stretch from 2013 to 2016 when the Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New Jersey Devils were all struggling.

Since then, both Carolina and Columbus have been on the incline in home-game attendance. After Columbus hired head coach John Tortorella, they’ve climbed from averaging 14,665 fans per home game in 2015 to 16,898 in 2019. Similarly, the Carolina Hurricanes went from averaging a lowly 11,776 in 2016 to 16,095 in 2019. With these cities having teams for just over 20 years, these are markets where the NHL hopes hockey sticks, as it did in Washington with the Capitals.

Atlantic Division

Moving on to the Atlantic Division, home to some of the NHL’s best fans and some of their worst. The Montreal Canadiens are at the top of the list, having the advantage of being older than the league itself. The straight horizontal line at the top of the graph represents their sellout streak, which lasted fourteen years and ended in 2018.  Throughout the past fifteen years, Les Habitants have only been beat once in average attendance, by the 2013 Detroit Redwings.

Since then, Detroit has moved from the beloved Joe Louis Arena to Little Caesars. They’ve experienced a decline in fan attendance in combination with a lack of success. Some of the other markets in this division that are known for their devoted fans are Toronto, Ottawa, Buffalo, and Boston.

All of those organizations have held relatively steady attendance figures, except for the Ottawa Senators. The Sens have had declining fan attendance since 2015, even reaching below 13,000 fans on average in 2019. This is despite the fact that the Senators were very successful in 2017, reaching Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Florida’s Teams

For Atlantic markets without a recognizable love for hockey, we’ll discuss the two NHL teams that make up the sunshine state: the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

On one side, the Lightning are regarded as one of the best organizations in the league. Tampa Bay finished second in average attendance in 2005-06, still reaping the benefits of their first Stanley Cup. But, from then until 2010, the Lightning’s attendance was on the decline. This was known as a rebuilding phase for the franchise, and the fans returned in numbers when Tampa Bay built a contender around Steven Stamkos. It’s a very similar trend to the uptick the Washington Capitals experienced after people found out about Alexander Ovechkin. With both Washington and Tampa having recently won Stanley Cups, hockey fandom may soon be cemented in those markets.

The Florida Panthers, on the other hand, would have better luck selling tickets to an Avril Lavigne concert. In 2014, they registered the lowest data point for average attendance over the last fifteen years, at 11,265. To give them some credit, they passed the Boston Bruins in average attendance in 2006 and 2007. Plus, their best figure came in 2012, when they averaged nearly 17,000 fans per home game. For reference, that’s about the same amount as Carolina averaged in 2019. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect a successful, mid-market team in the southeastern United States to hover between 15,000 and 17,000 fans per home game.

Central Division

Moving west, we’ll first look at the Central Division, home to some of the most adored franchises around the NHL. To begin, we’ll discuss the Chicago Blackhawks, who have played in six outdoor games since 2009. The NHL favors Chicago in those games, because they’ve proven to draw massive crowds. In fact, the Chicago Blackhawks have been leading the league in attendance for the past eleven seasons, selling out 531 consecutive games.

It wasn’t always that easy, as the Blackhawks averaged just below 13,000 fans per game in 2006. Then Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane entered the league after being selected in back-to-back drafts. Soon after, the Blackhawks became the hottest ticket in Chicago. St. Louis has had a similar past fifteen years. After struggling during the 2005 season, they’ve had years of steady crowds in the 17,000 – 19,000 fan range. 

The state of hockey, Minnesota, has counted on approximately 18,000 – 20,000 fans to show up each night they’ve played since 2005. This is despite the fact that the Minnesota Wild have been dishearteningly average in recent years. Perhaps their fans are catching on, as average attendance recently fell below 18,000 for the first time since 2011.

The Winnipeg Jets have had low-to-average attendance figures, which is in part due to their smaller arena. The data points plotted before 2011 represent the average attendance for Atlanta Thrashers games, which resembles the Florida Panthers’ numbers in the past few years. However, it’s worth mentioning the Thrashers averaged 16,240 fans per home game at their peak in 2006.

Up-and-Comers

In Nashville, attendance has slowly climbed up to the mid 17,000 range over the past fifteen years. Hopefully this upward trend continues, because the Predators have definitely built something special on Broadway Street.

Another emerging hockey market is Dallas, who’s enjoyed crowds of 17,000 and up since 2015. Obviously the Dallas Stars have had success in the past five years, but the excitement feels ever so real in Dallas. Their average attendance skyrocketed up to 20,326 in 2019, good for 3rd in the NHL. Which is promising, especially since it’s larger than the crowds generated in the years following their 1999 Stanley Cup win.

Similarly, Colorado has risen back up to the 18,000+ crowds they saw after their Cup win in 2001. Their steady incline since 2016 is a sign that Joe Sakic is putting together something significant in Denver.

Pacific Division

In the Pacific division, average attendance is all over the map, much like the geographic positioning of the teams. First, Canadian markets Vancouver and Calgary show strong, reliable figures ranging from 18,000 – 20,000 fans every year in the past fifteen.

Though Edmonton has usually been slightly below those teams in average attendance, their flat line portrays the devotion of Edmonton Oilers fans. The Oilers have had more top ten picks than the Cleveland Browns have in the past ten years, yet fans are still living and dying with every game. The big spike in their slope from 2015 to 2016 is because of Connor McDavid, and the move from Northlands Coliseum to Rogers Place.

For Californian teams, Los Angeles and San Jose can claim the two most devoted hockey fan bases in the golden state. Only when Anaheim won in 2007 did they surpass the LA Kings in average attendance. Yet, they have never beaten the San Jose Sharks in this metric. Still, all three teams are reliant on success in producing crowds over 17,000 fans.

Developments in the Desert

Arizona has never sniffed 17,000 fans, but then again you couldn’t easily recall a truly successful Arizona Coyotes team, besides 2012. On the bright side, the Coyotes average attendance has been increasing since 2017. Further, as hockey gains popularity in Arizona, the future looks encouraging for the Coyotes.

Finally, that light blue slope starting from 2017, represents the Vegas Golden Knights’ average attendance. As you can see, the Vegas Golden Knights have been rocking the barn since the inception of their team. They’ve yet to fall below 18,000 in average attendance, meaning they could build a foundation for hockey in the desert.