Introduction
Two years ago was Ray Shero’s final offseason as general manager of the New Jersey Devils. That summer, the team was just starting to build their now expansive analytical staff. Coincidentally enough, the Devils also made a lot of moves that may have looked good on paper that offseason. So much so, it made a lot of people declare the Devils, “offseason champions.” However, almost all of those moves turned out poorly, which in hindsight, given the riskiness of each at the time, is not all that surprising.
Similarly to two summers ago, lots of people all over the internet are declaring the Devils the champions of this offseason. Luckily, it seems this go-around that title is much more deserving.
However, before we discuss why, a video version of this article is out on the Devils Army Network YouTube, please check it out after reading this! The link to the channel is below. Alright, now, Let’s go over why.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNsudbocXY4Cs8a1dp6j03g
Forwards
2019
In 2019, the New Jersey Devils added three forwards: Wayne Simmonds via free agency, Nikita Gusev via trade, and Jack Hughes via the draft. While on the surface, these all seem like acquisitions that would have not only improved the Devils immediately, but also help them compete for a playoff spot. However, they all didn’t turn out as expected.
First off, let’s discuss Wayne Simmonds. He had just come off his worst season in years and had been on a steady decline for a few years prior. Simmonds was signed to be a physical, veteran presence in the bottom-six. That he was, however, New Jersey was also banking that he would have somewhat of a bounce-back season offensively. However, this seemed a bit unrealistic given his age and play-style. As mentioned above, both his analytics and base statistics had been declining for a few years at that point. This should have raised red flags before the Devils committed $5,000,000 and a roster spot to him.
Next let’s examine Nikita Gusev and Jack Hughes. In 2019, the Devils were banking on the idea that these two would light it up in their rookie seasons. This was also somewhat unreasonable. Hughes was not ready for the NHL physically and mentally, which was apparent from his first shift. While he didn’t pan out in 2019-20, Hughes had a fantastic season last year where he showed us the superstar he most likely will be.
Gusev was the opposite. He actually excelled in 2019-20, but fell off a cliff after head coach Lindy Ruff was hired. Unfortunately for Gusev, Ruff’s system involves counter-attack and jumping up in plays with skating, each are areas that “the Goose” struggled in. As a result, his contract was terminated prior to the trade deadline this past season and he is currently an unrestricted free agent.
2021
This summer the Devils have only added one forward thus far and that man is Tomas Tatar. Unlike the forward additions made in 2019, the Devils went with a player who has been an analytical-darling for a long time now (shown in figure below). Also someone who the team doesn’t have to bank on improving or bouncing back from a down-year. They just need Tatar to be Tatar. If he is, Tomas could be a lethal addition to NJ’s top-six playing with either Hughes or Nico Hischier.
Defense
2019
In 2019, the Devils made one major addition to their blue-line and that was trading for P.K. Subban. The Devils didn’t give up too much for him in the grand scheme of things, but two second round picks is nothing to scoff at either. When the Devils acquired Subban, it was another example of them banking on a player being what they were rather than what they are.
About a year prior to the Devils trading for him, Subban was nominated for the Norris. However, he probably didn’t deserve that nomination, as his analytics had been on a downward spiral for a few years at that point (shown in figure below). Similar to the Simmonds signing, the Devils acquired Subban for the name and hoped he would bounce back rather than actually going out and getting a solid defenseman who fit the timeline.
2021
Similar to Tatar, the defenseman acquired this summer by the Devils are guys who are strong analytically and aren’t being relied on to have a bounce-back or breakout season. Ryan Graves and Dougie Hamilton just have to be themselves and it will make the Devils better.
Graves, while not having the best analytics offensively, is lights out in his own end. He is also six-foot-five inches, which is size the Devils usually do not have on the team’s back end. Dougie Hamilton is a top-five defenseman in the whole league, who is fantastic at both ends of the ice and generates offense extremely well. He is also six-foot six-inches, more size. Both of these guys have been this way their entire career and have just gotten better with time.
Goaltending
In 2019 the Devils didn’t add any goaltenders, but a similar logic applies. They went into the season banking on a bounce-back year from Cory Schneider and a breakout from Mackenzie Blackwood. They did end up getting one of those, but goaltending this year should be a lot more sure overall.
Blackwood had a down year last season, but a lot of it can be blamed on a barrage of injuries and a bad case of COVID-19. Jonathan Bernier on the other hand, is a much more sure fire bet than Schneider was two years ago. He has put up good numbers throughout his career. Jonathan has also had solid numbers his past couple of seasons despite playing for terrible Detroit teams.
Conclusion
To sum things up, the main difference between the Devils’ offseason in 2019 and their offseason this year is analytics. Two years ago the Devils got players with the idea of what they were or what they can be. This year the Devils added players based on what they actually are.
The Devils made smart acquisitions for players with good underlying numbers and a track record of success. Players who they don’t have to rely on to bounce-back or breakout. The Devils adding Tatar, Hamilton, Graves and Bernier should put them in a good position to at least contend for a playoff spot this upcoming season.